Discovering New Voices

One of the great rewards of reading broadly is encountering thinkers who challenge our assumptions in unexpected ways. John Cassidy’s new book Capitalism and Its Critics serves as an excellent gateway to such voicesโ€”including Silvia Federici, whose work I encountered for the first time through his analysis.

Federici builds upon Marx’s foundation while charting her own critical path. Like Marx, she argues that capitalism fundamentally depends on one group exploiting another’s laborโ€”but she expands this critique beyond the traditional worker-owner dynamic. Her distinctive contribution lies in highlighting how capitalism systematically devalues and invisibilizes reproductive labor, particularly the unpaid work of mothers and caregivers.

Her proposed solutionโ€”direct payment for domestic and care workโ€”has sparked both organizing efforts among women’s networks and genuine debate about the nature of care itself. There’s an inherent tension here: while some forms of labor may be best performed voluntarily rather than as market transactions, this doesn’t negate their immense economic and social value.

This raises a crucial point that transcends ideological boundaries: regardless of whether we embrace Federici’s specific remedies, her core insight about the systematic undervaluing of reproductive labor demands serious consideration. The work of raising children, maintaining households, and caring for family members provides enormous value to societyโ€”value that our current economic frameworks struggle to recognize or measure adequately.

In exploring these ideas, Federici reminds us that the most interesting economic critics aren’t just those who diagnose capitalism’s failures, but those who help us see the invisible foundations upon which the entire system rests.

What is Private, What is Public Eastern block home edition

Those of you who follow this site know that we view the boundary between public and private as fundamentally a matter of choice. Bridges can be privately owned and charge tolls, but they more commonly become part of public transportation infrastructure. These decisions about what remains public versus private are often driven by considerations of efficiency and practical management. It was fascinating, then, to recently discover that following the collapse of communism in 1989, one of the most immediate and sweeping divestitures involved housing itself. Here’s that remarkable story.

The Great Housing Transfer: Eastern Europe’s Post-1989 Privatization Revolution
The collapse of state socialism in Eastern Europe triggered one of history’s largest transfers of public wealth to private hands through housing privatization. Between 1990 and the early 2000s, millions of state-owned apartments were sold to sitting tenants at deeply discounted prices, fundamentally reshaping the region’s housing landscape and creating lasting economic and social consequences.
From State Monopoly to Private Ownership
Under communist rule, Eastern European countries maintained near-total state control over housing. In most countries, 80-90% of urban housing stock was publicly owned, with the state serving as both landlord and developer. This represented one of the most comprehensive public housing systems in modern history, housing the majority of urban populations across the Soviet sphere.
The transition was dramatic and swift. Following the privatisation of state-owned housing in the transition to a market economy in the early 1990s, CEE countries now record some of the highest homeownership rates in the OECD, with over 70% of households owning their home outright. Countries like Hungary, Slovakia, and the Czech Republic saw homeownership rates soar from under 20% to over 80% within a single decade.
The Titling Process: Converting Tenants to Owners
The privatization process varied by country but followed similar patterns. Most governments opted for “sitting tenant” sales, offering apartments directly to current occupants rather than through open markets. The privatization policy of the 1990s aimed to make the sitting tenants owners of their rented flats, by offering 70โ€“90 per cent discounts on the price of the houses and flats.
The legal titling process was often complex, requiring new property registries and cadastral systems. Many countries had to create entirely new frameworks for private property ownership, having operated under state control for decades. Voucher systems were also employed, where citizens were given or could inexpensively buy a book of vouchers that represent potential shares in any state-owned company, though these were more commonly used for enterprise privatization than housing.
The Value Transfer: A Massive Subsidy
The financial scale of these transfers was enormous. With discounts typically ranging from 70-90% below estimated market value, the programs represented massive implicit subsidies to sitting tenants. In Hungary alone, the value transfer has been estimated at several billion dollars in current terms. The Czech Republic’s privatization program transferred approximately 1.2 million units, representing roughly one-third of the entire national housing stock.
These discounts were justified as compensation for years of poor maintenance and recognition of tenants’ de facto investment in their homes through decades of occupancy. However, the beneficiaries were not necessarily the neediestโ€”middle-class professionals and party officials often lived in the most desirable state housing and captured the largest windfall gains.
Lingering Effects: Winners, Losers, and Market Distortions
The privatization legacy continues to shape Eastern European housing markets today. The dramatic shift to homeownership created several persistent challenges:
Market Thinness: The formal rental market is generally thin and underdeveloped โ€” only in the Czech Republic is the rental market home to more than 15% of households (19%). This limits labor mobility and creates barriers for young people entering housing markets.
Quality Degradation: Multi-apartment buildings dominate the housing stock, many built during the communist period. As a result, the stock is ageing and of poor quality. Most households cannot afford to maintain or upgrade their dwellings according to environmental requirements. The mass transfer of maintenance responsibilities to individual owners without corresponding financial capacity has led to widespread deterioration.
Social Housing Shortage: The social housing supply in most CEE countries is well below the OECD average, with the exception of Poland and Slovenia. The elimination of public housing left a gap in affordable housing provision that has never been adequately filled.
Inequality Effects: The privatization created a new form of wealth inequality, where accident of residential location in 1989 determined lifetime wealth accumulation. Urban professionals gained valuable assets, while rural residents and those in less desirable locations received minimal benefits.
The Eastern European housing privatization represents both a remarkable success in creating a property-owning democracy and a cautionary tale about the unintended consequences of rapid large-scale privatization. Three decades later, the region continues to grapple with the market distortions and social challenges created by this unprecedented transfer of public wealth to private hands.

Deep Cover- Movie Review

Iโ€™m usually critical of comedies, but I can recommend this one. Deep Cover follows three characters who meet in an improv class and gradually get pulled deeper into the street drug network, all under the guidance of an undercover cop. Orlando Bloom plays a manic actor-artist, Bryce Dallas Howard embodies the sharp-tongued former head girl turned mom-coach, and Nick Mohammed takes the brunt of the square punchlines.

But the story isnโ€™t just about comedyโ€”itโ€™s about self-discovery. Each character is searching for a way forward in life, and the chance to step into another world allows them to see themselves from a fresh perspective. Itโ€™s the classic tension: the difficulty of truly facing oneself. Through improv, they begin to uncover truths about their own lives and the people around them.

Of course, the act of going โ€œundercoverโ€ soon feels too real, and while theyโ€™re tempted to bail out, each turn forces them to go deeper. That push-and-pull creates both the comedy and the revelatory moments. By the end, they find their way back to the safety of their old worldโ€”bruised, a little wiser, and leaving the audience thoroughly amused.

Follow up on European homeownership rates

Taken from todayโ€™s Bloomberg letter.

Thereโ€™s a noticeable trend where countries with higher state capacityโ€”broadly understood as the ability of a government to effectively implement policies, provide public services, and maintain robust institutionsโ€”tend to have lower homeownership rates. This pattern, while not absolute, holds across several key countries when examining the most recent data (2023โ€“2024, primarily from Statista and Eurostat).

Want a Ride?

One thing to note if you are planning a trip to Denmark is that you can rely on public transportation with confidence. In Denmark, this covers trains, commuter rail, metro, buses, and the availability of bike lanes (of which there are shockingly many). Just because it is said that a bus will be at a certain place at a certain time, it does not always mean that it will be there. And if you are in a foreign place, you don’t have the background to think, Don’t worry, the E11 always runs a little late.

Cutting back on concerns is essential when you are on a trip. They are time-consuming. They make you rethink your plans. They drain the fun out of the adventure. And maybe they are the best way to judge the efficacy of a provided service.

In Denmark, all metro, commuter trains, and inter-city trains are accessible via an app. It’s straightforward and easy to use. You can book as you stand on the track. The bus schedules are also available electronically and at each stop. On board, the screens display the time, stops, and the time of arrival at each stop, among other information. A subdued Scandinavian kerfluffle of concern arose on one trip as the wagon had to stop at the central station and not continue as planned to the airport. There was an instant sharing of information among riders to ensure everyone was in the know.

Rail infrastructure is present across the country, whose land mass is only a fifth the size of Minnesota, but whose citizenry is very similar. With the main corridors of population running between the higher-density areas, it is not surprising (in a way) that rail can be the dominant form of transportation. In an area like the northern tip of Jutland, where the rail network is limited, buses take over. As far as I could tell, most of the towns enjoyed regular daily service.

If you are making travel plans from afar, it’s significant to know that not only are the towns, cities, and hamlets accessible, but they are reliably and frequently visited. You might have a UNESCO-rated Viking archaeological site on your list of must-sees, and you know you don’t have to rent a car to reach it. Nor do you have to fudge in extra time if your timing is off in such a way as to miss the one bus that goes through the area. A traveler doesn’t worry about contingency plans or estimate the risk of not having transportation.

Renting a car is possible, but it’s expensive, costing $60-$90 per day. And then you have to pay for gas and parking. A one-hour bus ride up to Lokken, a beach town on the North Sea, costs DK94, or just under $15 โ€”seriously.

Lastly, you will find that the vehicles themselves are well-kept and clean. School children, teens, and adults of all ages trundle on and off them with noticeable familiarity. No need to fear being laughed at or judged for not following any particular protocol. Everyone is simply going about their day. Using the extremely reliable, well-networked, optimally supplied sources of transportation that their governing body chooses to provide with a substantial subsidy.

Great architecture in Denmark

Aarhus City Hall, a classic of Danish Scandinavian Modernism, was designed by Arne Jacobsen and Erik Mรธller and completed in 1941, replacing an older, medieval city hall. A competition was held in 1937 to replace the increasingly insufficient town hall from the mid-19th century, leading to Jacobsen and Mรธller’s winning, intentionally unmonumental design. However, after public and political requests, a towering clock tower was added, and construction continued despite the German occupation of Denmark during World War II, making the finished building a symbol of democratic governance during that time.

When asked about Polanyi’s Double Movement- Claude said:

Polanyi’s Double Movement and the Evolution of Economic Thought

The Household Foundation โ€ข Original containment: In household economies, the tension between acquisition (growth, accumulation) and protection (equitable distribution, waste prevention) operates within manageable, face-to-face relationships โ€ข Natural limits: Family/clan structures provide built-in mechanisms for both encouraging productive activity and preventing destructive excess โ€ข Embedded economics: Economic activity remains subordinated to social relationships and moral obligations

The Great Transformation: Market Economy Emergence โ€ข Dis-embedding: Economic activity becomes separated from social relationships and moral constraints โ€ข Fictitious commodities: Land, labor, and money become treated as market commodities despite not being produced for sale โ€ข Double movement emergence: Society’s protective response to market fundamentalism becomes institutionalized

Evolutionary Responses in Economic Thought

Adam Smith (1776) โ€ข Market optimism: Invisible hand suggests self-interest can serve social good โ€ข Early recognition: Acknowledged moral sentiments and social bonds as necessary counterweights โ€ข Household parallel: Like family moral economy, broader society needs ethical framework alongside market mechanisms

Karl Marx (1867) โ€ข Protective critique: Exposed capitalism’s tendency toward crisis and worker exploitation โ€ข Systemic analysis: Showed how market expansion undermines its own foundations through overproduction and underconsumption โ€ข Double movement insight: Predicted capitalism would generate its own contradictions requiring protective responses

ร‰mile Durkheim (1893) โ€ข Social solidarity: Distinguished mechanical (traditional) from organic (modern) solidarity โ€ข Integration challenge: Modern division of labor requires new forms of social cohesion โ€ข Protective institutions: Professional associations and moral regulation needed to prevent anomie

Rosa Luxemburg (1913) โ€ข Accumulation limits: Capitalism requires constant expansion into non-capitalist areas โ€ข Imperial protection: Advanced economies use state power to secure markets and resources โ€ข Global household: Imperial expansion recreates household-like extraction relationships on world scale

John Maynard Keynes (1936) โ€ข Market failure recognition: Markets alone cannot ensure full employment or stability โ€ข State intervention: Government must provide protective functions through fiscal and monetary policy โ€ข Embedded liberalism: Markets need social and political frameworks to function sustainably

Friedrich Hayek (1944) โ€ข Spontaneous order: Complex economies require market coordination beyond human planning capacity โ€ข Anti-protection warning: Government intervention threatens individual freedom and economic efficiency โ€ข Market fundamentalism: Pure market logic as protection against totalitarian planning

Contemporary Double Movement Tensions

Neoliberal Expansion (1980s-2008) โ€ข Market fundamentalism: Hayek’s vision implemented globally through deregulation and privatization โ€ข Household disruption: Traditional protective mechanisms (unions, welfare states, community institutions) weakened โ€ข Global reach: Market logic penetrates previously protected spheres (education, healthcare, environment)

Protective Responses (2008-present) โ€ข Financial crisis: Market failure triggers protective interventions (bailouts, regulation) โ€ข Populist movements: Political responses to economic dislocation and inequality โ€ข Environmental limits: Climate change forces recognition of growth’s destructive potential โ€ข Digital economy: New forms of commodification (data, attention) generate protective responses

Synthesis: The Persistent Tension

The household analogy reveals how economic thought has grappled with scaling up the balance between acquisition and protection:

โ€ข Smith to Marx: Recognition that market expansion requires moral/social counterweights โ€ข Durkheim to Keynes: Development of institutional mechanisms for social protection โ€ข Hayek’s challenge: Market efficiency versus social protection trade-offs โ€ข Contemporary crisis: Global markets outpacing protective institutions’ capacity

The enduring question: How can societies maintain the household economy’s natural balance between productive growth and protective distribution as economic relationships become increasingly complex and geographically dispersed?

In the beginning

The term โ€œeconomicsโ€ comes from the ancient Greek word oikonomia, which translates to โ€œmanagement of the householdโ€ (oikos meaning โ€œhouseโ€ and nomos meaning โ€œlawโ€ or โ€œmanagementโ€). In ancient Greece, thinkers like Xenophon and Aristotle discussed economics in the context of managing household resources, including property, agriculture, and labor, to ensure the well-being of the family unit. This was a practical concept focused on efficiency and resource allocation within the home or estate, rather than the broader market-based systems we associate with economics today.

The word economics evolved from its original Greek meaning of โ€œhousehold managementโ€ (oikonomia) to a broader concept over centuries, with key shifts occurring as societies and intellectual thought developed. Hereโ€™s a concise overview of when and how this transformation happened:

โ€ข Ancient Greece (4thโ€“5th Century BCE): As you noted, oikonomia referred to managing household resources, as discussed by thinkers like Xenophon and Aristotle. It focused on practical matters like agriculture, trade within the estate, and family welfare, with some extension to city-state (polis) administration.

โ€ข Medieval and Early Modern Periods (5thโ€“17th Century): The concept remained tied to household or estate management in feudal Europe, but as commerce and trade grew, thinkers began applying similar principles to larger entities like manors or small states. The term wasnโ€™t yet used for broader societal systems, but mercantilist ideas (1500sโ€“1700s) started focusing on national wealth and trade, laying groundwork for a wider scope.

โ€ข 18th Century โ€“ Enlightenment and Classical Economics: The shift to a broader meaning took shape during the Enlightenment. In 1776, Adam Smithโ€™s The Wealth of Nations marked a pivotal moment, redefining economics as the study of wealth creation, distribution, and consumption across societies. Smith and contemporaries like David Ricardo moved the focus from households to markets, trade, and national economies, emphasizing concepts like division of labor and free markets.

โ€ข 19th Century โ€“ Formalization of Economics: By the 1800s, economics solidified as a discipline studying societal resource allocation. Thinkers like John Stuart Mill and Karl Marx expanded its scope to include production, labor, and capital on a national and global scale. The term political economy was often used, reflecting its focus on state and societal systems.

โ€ข Late 19thโ€“Early 20th Century โ€“ Modern Economics: The marginalist revolution (1870s) and the work of economists like Alfred Marshall further abstracted economics into a science of human behavior, choices, and resource scarcity. Marshallโ€™s 1890 book Principles of Economics popularized the term โ€œeconomicsโ€ over โ€œpolitical economy,โ€ cementing its modern, broad meaning as the study of how societies allocate scarce resources.

But letโ€™s not forget about the distinction of political economyโ€”

The term political economy played a crucial role in the evolution of the word economics from its original Greek meaning of โ€œhousehold managementโ€ (oikonomia) to its modern, broader sense. Hereโ€™s how political economy fits into the sequence, building on the earlier discussion:

โ€ข Ancient Roots (4thโ€“5th Century BCE): As mentioned, oikonomia in ancient Greece referred to household or estate management, with some application to city-state governance (e.g., Aristotleโ€™s discussions of resource allocation in the polis). This laid the groundwork for thinking about resource management beyond the household, but the term political economy didnโ€™t exist yet.

โ€ข Medieval and Early Modern Periods (5thโ€“17th Century): During this time, economic thought was still largely tied to household or feudal estate management, but as trade and mercantilism grew, scholars began applying resource management principles to larger entities like states. The term political economy emerged in the early 17th century, particularly with works like Antoine de Montchrestienโ€™s 1615 Traictรฉ de lโ€™oeconomie politique, which explicitly used the term to describe the management of state resources and wealth. Here, โ€œpoliticalโ€ referred to the polis or state, extending oikonomia to national governance, trade, and wealth accumulation (e.g., mercantilist policies focused on state power and gold reserves).

โ€ข 18th Century โ€“ Enlightenment and Rise of Political Economy: The term political economy became prominent during the Enlightenment as thinkers like Adam Smith, David Hume, and the French Physiocrats (e.g., Franรงois Quesnay) analyzed wealth, trade, and production at a societal level. In 1776, Smithโ€™s The Wealth of Nations used political economy to describe the study of how nations generate and distribute wealth, focusing on markets, labor, and trade policies. This marked a clear shift from household management to the broader study of economic systems influenced by government policies, laws, and institutions. Political economy was the dominant term for what we now call economics during this period.

โ€ข 19th Century โ€“ Peak and Transition of Political Economy: In the early 1800s, political economy was the standard term for the discipline, as seen in the works of David Ricardo, John Stuart Mill, and Karl Marx. It encompassed the study of production, distribution, and consumption, often with a focus on how political structures (e.g., class systems, government policies) shaped economic outcomes. For example, Marxโ€™s critique of capitalism in Das Kapital (1867) was framed as a work of political economy, analyzing economic systems through the lens of power and class dynamics. However, by the mid-to-late 19th century, the term began to be seen as too narrow, as it emphasized political and social factors over emerging scientific approaches to resource allocation.

โ€ข Late 19thโ€“Early 20th Century โ€“ Shift to โ€œEconomicsโ€: The marginalist revolution (1870s), led by economists like William Stanley Jevons, Carl Menger, and Lรฉon Walras, shifted the focus to individual choices, marginal utility, and mathematical models of resource scarcity. Alfred Marshallโ€™s Principles of Economics (1890) popularized the term economics as a more neutral, scientific label, dropping the โ€œpoliticalโ€ to emphasize the study of universal principles of resource allocation across societies. Political economy began to be seen as a subfield, focusing on the interplay of politics and economics (e.g., trade policies, labor laws), while economics became the broader discipline.

In summary, political economy emerged in the 17th century as an extension of oikonomia to state-level resource management, became the dominant term for economic thought in the 18th and early 19th centuries, and bridged the gap between household-focused economics and the modern, abstract science of economics. By the late 19th century, economics overtook political economy as the broader term, with political economy now often referring to a specific lens within economics that examines the role of political institutions and power in economic systems.

Is it politics? Is it the economy? Or is it some mix of the two?

Veblenโ€™s pecuniary obsession

Thorstein Veblen, the Norwegian-American economist raised in rural Minnesota, left an indelible mark on social theory with his 1899 classic, The Theory of the Leisure Class. In that book alone, he wielded the term โ€œpecuniaryโ€ over 200 times, hammering home his critique of money-driven motives in society. Makes you wonder: was Veblen subtly arguing that transactions fueled chiefly by monetary incentives carry a distinct, perhaps colder essenceโ€”diverging sharply from exchanges rooted in social bonds, reciprocity, or community welfare?

The economics of Kronborg Castle

Sureโ€” you knew that Kronborg Castle, on the NE tip of Zealand in Denmark, was the setting inspiration for Shakespeare, in Hamlet.

Moat, entrance,stables and Kronborg Castle

But did you realize its raison dโ€™etre is an economic story?

See that short distance from the edge of the ramparts to the coast afar? Thatโ€™s a narrow straitโ€” perfect for tax collection.

Kronborg Castle was constructed by Denmark to enforce the collection of “Sound Dues,” a tariff levied on all ships passing through the ร˜resund strait between Denmark and Sweden.

The castle’s cannons ensured that vessels complied, generating significant revenue for the Danish Crown for over 400 years. 

Kronborg and the Sound Dues

  • Strategic location: In the 1420s, King Eric VII of Denmark built a fortress named Krogen on the site of present-day Kronborg. The castle was strategically positioned on the narrowest point of the ร˜resund, which at just 4 kilometers (2.5 miles) wide, served as a crucial entryway to and from the Baltic Sea.
  • Enforcement of tariffs: The castle and its formidable cannons guaranteed that all commercial ships entering or leaving the Baltic paid the Sound Dues.
  • Revenue generation: For centuries, the Sound Dues were a main source of income for the Danish royals, funding not only the maintenance of the castle but also covering a significant portion of Denmark’s state income.
  • Preventing fraud: To prevent ships’ captains from undervaluing their cargo to lower the tariff, the Danish king could exercise the right to buy the entire cargo for the value stated.
  • Upgraded fortress: In the mid-1500s, King Frederick II radically expanded and rebuilt the fortress into the lavish Renaissance castle known today as Kronborg. The project was almost entirely funded by the Sound Dues.ย 

Market Failure was used as the signal– but what now?

In days of yore, there was the market and the state. Two separate spheres of activity coexisted. And when private industry did not come through for the people, in the way they thought it should, market failure was the name given to assign blame. When the market failed, it was up to the state to address the lack of supply in areas such as medical care, poverty alleviation, housing, and the like.

One of economist Tyler Cowen’s first books addresses this trigger for state action in a compilation of thoughts on The Theory of Market Failure: A Critical Examination. But he isn’t convinced. He seems to say that when you look so closely at a tiny segment of a large system, you don’t see anything at all.

Consider externalities, a key signal that the market is merely pushing a problem onto some unsuspecting observer. He claims that (nearly) every single transaction has a positive or negative external effect. And, if you think about it, it’s true. We are social creatures. Although many consumptions are deeply personal, in the end, we always touch the lives of others.

The scope of the externalities/nonexcludability issue is vast. Nearly every concern of economic policy, from environmental considerations to research and development, involves externality problems. No one would claim that every instance of an externality warrants state intervention. There is no doubt, however, that the existence of externalities is one of the most powerful arguments for public sector involvement in the provision of public goods.

This isn’t the proper trigger for government intervention.

What about when the price seems too high, as in housing, or too low, as in wages? Whether a good is mediated through the private or public sector, prices still carry the most valuable form of comparative value information.

As noted earlier, the theory of public goods and externalities implies that if a good is characterized by nonrivalrous consumption, allowing additional individuals to consume it entails zero marginal cost. Demsetz’s arguments (1964; 1970) imply that this is only true in the presence of perfect information. Otherwise, allowing additional individuals to consume a good free of charge results in the abandonment of the price system in that sphere of activity. Since the publication of Hayek 1945, the role of prices in communicating information has been well known. In the provision of public goods as well as private goods, sacrificing such information may entail significant costs.

Prices are the most critical form of encapsulation of what groups of exchangers say about an exchange. We may not always conduct a thorough analysis of prices. That might be where the problem lies.

For instance, the exchange might be telling something vital about a group of people that others are simply not attuned to. People join various clubs throughout their lives. And these associations create structures of value.

The next two selections in section 2 of this volume discuss the nature of local public goods. Because such goods, by definition, can be provided to only a segment of a nation or community, determining which individuals will receive them becomes part of the economic problem. Once club or community membership becomes endogenous, many of Samuelson’s conclusions do not hold.

When people leave or join a club, when they exit or stay loyal, they impact how much of a surcharge the group of people in the club can charge.

The Tiebout model avoids the preference revelation problem; an individual’s preferences are revealed by his choice of location. It also avoids the free-rider problem; those who choose to belong to a given community are subject to the taxes or user fรฉes that finance the provision of goods. Nor is pricing inefficiency a problem. If an individual is inefficiently excluded from the use of a public good or service, he can simply move to a community where that exclusion is not practiced.

The introduction written by Tyler Cowen is comprehensive. To the engaged observer, he dispels the dichotomy between industry and the state. There’s something pluristic out there. It’s big, messy, and complicated. It dovetails into many of the things people talk about under the titular of institutions. But it has structure– once you stand back and take a look.

That’s the project of the moment: a unified theory of price.

Market Design: For the Group or for the Individual?

We often think of markets as the ultimate expression of individual freedomโ€”buy what you want, sell what you have, let prices sort everything out. But look closer at some of the most important markets in our economy, and you’ll notice something curious: they don’t work that way at all.

Take spectrum auctions. When the government sells radio frequencies, they don’t just post a “For Sale” sign and take the highest bidder. Instead, they craft elaborate auction mechanisms with complex bidding rules, eligibility requirements, and payment structures. Why? Because the goal isn’t just to make a saleโ€”it’s to maximize revenue for taxpayers and ensure efficient allocation of a scarce public resource.

Or consider medical residency matching. Before the current system, medical students and hospitals engaged in an increasingly frantic and early scramble for positions that left everyone worse off. Now, students submit ranked preference lists, hospitals do the same, and an algorithm produces matches that no student-hospital pair would want to trade away from. Individual students might not get their first choice, but the system as a whole works better for everyone.

These aren’t broken markets that need fixingโ€”they’re markets deliberately designed to serve collective goals while still respecting individual preferences. And they represent a fascinating middle ground.

The Pattern Emerges

Look across the landscape of market design and you’ll see the same pattern everywhere:

Electricity markets must ensure grid reliability and efficient dispatch while still letting generators and consumers pursue profit and savings. Emissions trading systems must hit environmental targets while allowing companies to minimize their compliance costs. Kidney exchange networks must save as many lives as possible while respecting individual donor and recipient preferences.

In each case, there’s a collective goal that mattersโ€”revenue maximization, system stability, environmental protection, saving livesโ€”but also individual participants who won’t play unless they can pursue their own interests.

The Design Challenge

This creates a fascinating design challenge. How do you interpret a market that serves group goals while still harnessing individual incentives? The answer lies in the mechanisms that align private interests with public purposes.

Traditional markets work through the “invisible hand”โ€”individual optimization magically leads to collective benefit. But in these designed markets, there’s a very visible hand carefully crafting the rules to ensure that what’s good for individuals adds up to what’s good for the group. The group is the primary competitive player.

A New Taxonomy

Perhaps we need to think about markets along a spectrum. On one end are pure private optimization marketsโ€”commodity exchanges, stock markets, your local farmer’s market. Here, individual pursuit of profit and value drives everything, and collective benefit emerges as a byproduct.

On the other end are what we might call “group-goal-constrained markets”โ€”auctions, matching systems, environmental markets. Here, collective objectives take priority in the design, but individual incentives are carefully preserved and channeled toward those broader goals.

This isn’t about eliminating private goals or replacing markets with central planning. It’s about designing institutions that make private and public interests align. The medical student still wants a good residency. The electricity generator still wants profit. The polluting company still wants to minimize costs. But the market structure ensures these individual pursuits nod up to group purposes.

The Future of Markets

As our economy becomes more complex and interconnected, we increasingly need markets that can serve collective purposes while still harnessing individual incentives. Climate change, healthcare allocation, urban planning, financial stabilityโ€”these challenges require coordination at a scale.

Market design offers a path forward: not the heavy hand of government control. We’re learning to interpret markets that work for everyone precisely because they’re designed to balance what individuals want with what society needs.

The invisible hand was never really invisibleโ€”it was just poorly understood. Now we’re learning to make it work more deliberately, and that might be exactly what our complex world requires.

Tolstoy, and the X side of warfare

A topic under examination that runs through War and Peace is the analysis of warfare. What were the keys to Napoleonโ€™s success? The size of the army, or the genius of the man? Or something else.

In Part 15, chapter II Tolstoys starts us we thinking in terms of individual agents.

ONE OF THE MOSt conspicuous and advantageous departures from the so-called rules of warfare is the independent action of men acting separately against men huddled together in a mass. Such independent activity is always seen in a war that assumes a national character.

The author then tells us the accepted view is that it is about counting soldiers, guns, and supplies.

Military science assumes that the relative strength of forces is identical with their numerical proportions. Military science maintains that the greater the number of soldiers, the greater their strength.

Butโ€ฆ

Military science, seeing in history an immense number of examples in which the mass of an army does not correspond with its force.

And thus Tolstoy suggests there is something else. He wants to be scientific about this thing. He calls it X.

One has but to renounce the false view that glorifies the effect of the activity of the heroes of history in warfare in order to discover this unknown quantity, x.

X is the spirit of the army, the greater or less desire to fight and to face dangers on the part of all the men composing the army, which is quite apart from the question whether they are fighting under leaders of genius or not, with cudgel or with guns that fire thirty times a minute.

It seems that what is important here is that soldiering with X is something different than soldiering in general. To fulfill a duty with X is not the same as a run-of-the-mill fulfillment of the same task. It does not quantify in the same way or lead to the same results. Labor with a purpose or a shared ambition deserves a subscript of x.

Unit Oneโ€” Series Review

This Scandi noir cop series from 2000 features a strong cast and solid plotlines. But thatโ€™s not what makes it interesting. The special investigation team works out of a mobile trailer, which travels to the location of the crime. Any travel enthusiast will appreciate the insights into towns, villages, and the larger cities all over Denmark. A viewer might even take to referring to Google Maps at the start of each episode as the investigation becomes apparent.

The changing roles of women and household composition also thread through the background of each episode. It’s hard to remember that it was a big deal for a woman to be made head of the homicide unit just twenty-five years ago. Whether in conjunction with women’s advancements or not, the flagrant mate swapping verges on humorous. There are absolutely no traditional family structures. Flirtations and infidelities and reunifications are the going thing.

Control price, Property will degrade to reflect change

Territory-Watersheds for Insurance

In the context of car insurance pricing, a territory is a geographic area defined by insurers to group locations with similar risk profiles for setting premiums. Territories are typically defined using the following methods and delineators:

1. ZIP Codes: The most common delineator, as ZIP codes provide a standardized way to segment areas based on localized risk factors like accident rates, crime statistics, and claim frequency. Insurers may use individual ZIP codes or aggregate them into larger territories. [2] [16] [19]

2. Custom Territories: Insurers may create their own territories by combining ZIP codes, counties, cities, or townships into broader zones. These are designed to reflect similar loss experiences, traffic patterns, or demographic characteristics. For example, multiple adjacent ZIP codes with comparable risk may be grouped into one territory. [11] [13] [14]

3. Census Block Groups: For more granular analysis, some insurers use census block groups (small areas with 600-2,000 people) to define territories. These allow for precise risk assessment in densely populated or diverse areas. [16] [19]

4. State-Regulated Territories: Some states impose rules on how territories are defined. For instance, Connecticut uses 18 predefined territories, while California requires territories to be at least 20 square miles and prohibits single-ZIP code territories to ensure fairness and avoid overly specific pricing. [13] [14]

5. Geocoding: Insurers use geocoding tools to map a vehicleโ€™s primary garaging address (where itโ€™s parked most often) to precise coordinates, ensuring accurate assignment to a territory. This helps account for variations within larger geographic units. [18]

Territories are defined based on data like accident frequency, vehicle theft rates, vandalism, weather risks, traffic density, and claims history, which help insurers assess the likelihood and cost of claims in a given area. The boundaries are set to balance statistical homogeneity with practical considerations like regulatory compliance and administrative simplicity.

State Fair Season

With nearly 500 food items, 30 carnival rides, and more than 900 free performances, there’s plenty to keep you busy throughout the Minnesota State Fair‘s 12-day run. 

Itโ€™s a thing here in Minnesota. All walks of life mingle through the entrance gates in Falcon Heights. Check out the one day attendance record.

The Brief

    • The Minnesota State Fair saw its first record-breaking attendance day so far this year.
    • On Monday, 145,022 people were recorded attending the fair.
    • This breaks the previous record of 144,504 people set in 2017.

The cost of uncertainty

I showed a house this week in a modest but well-situated neighborhood. It had some problems, but mostly superficial– carpet, paint, appliances, and the like. Yet, even at a price below the comparable sales, it remains on the market. What? Uncertainty.

The property has been through a foreclosure, and as the tax records show, the bank holding the paper, Midfirst Bank, repurchased it. But this is a murky ownership situation.

At a sheriffโ€™s sale, the buyer is not immediately given a full and clear ownership title the way they would in a normal real estate closing. Instead, the buyer typically receives one of two legal instruments depending on the state:

  1. Sheriffโ€™s Certificate of Sale (common in states like Minnesota)
    • This document shows that the buyer purchased the property at the sheriffโ€™s sale.
    • It is not a deed and does not yet transfer full title.
    • The original owner still has a redemption period (often 6โ€“12 months, depending on the type of property and state law) to pay off the debt and reclaim the property.
  2. Sheriffโ€™s Deed
    • If the redemption period expires without the former owner redeeming the property, the sheriffโ€™s certificate is converted into a sheriffโ€™s deed (sometimes automatically, sometimes requiring a filing).
    • The sheriffโ€™s deed conveys whatever interest the debtor had in the property to the buyer, but it usually comes without warranties of clear title. That means the buyer takes the property subject to existing liens, unpaid taxes, or other encumbrances, unless state law says otherwise.

The property is being marketed by the owner who went through foreclosure, even though their right to the property is only through redemption. They would have to find a buyer to settle the full amount owed to Midfirst. This middle-ground ownership area makes the market uneasy. What if the bank wants more than the sheriff’s sale for fees and expenses? What if the property’s condition deteriorates between the offer and closing? Who will handle the repair? Will the title transfer be handled properly in the end?

Minnesota’s foreclosure rate is very low at one-half of one percent of the housing stock. So these sales are rare, and an investor will undoubtedly find it worthwhile to take on as a project. But in areas with insecure property rights and poor banking relations, the surcharge for uncertainty carries a hefty surcharge.

New Construction Update

Twice a year, builders in the Twin Cities Metro (and beyond) open up their model homes in an organized event to bring potential buyers out to browse.

More than 300 new homes in the Twin Cities and Rochester will be on display as part of the 2025 Fall Parade of Homes, according to Housing First Minnesota.

The event โ€” which runs Fridays through Sundays from Sept. 5 through Sept. 28 โ€” features homes built by 76 builders in 76 cities. Home prices range from $299,900 to more than $3 million.

Also planned is the Remodelers Showcase, which will be open on the final weekend of the tour. The showcase will feature 32 โ€œhome transformations,โ€ including one remodeled โ€œDream Homeโ€ in Excelsior, according to Housing First Minnesota. (Finance and Commerce)

A lot of folks are window shopping. Builders pay designers to select the best paint colors and tile selections. It’s interesting to see if builders are betting on a new floor plan. Some years, the appliance styles make a dramatic switch, like going from stainless to white. People are curious. People are making plans for their own home improvements.

And some people really will build that brand new home they’ve always wanted.

The Public and The Private- electric edition

From Your Home to the Grid: Who Owns and Operates the Power System

When you pay your monthly electric bill, youโ€™re acting as a private consumer in the electricity market. To you, the relationship looks simple: you use electricity in your home, and you pay your local provider for it. But behind the walls of your house is a layered system of ownership and responsibilityโ€”households, retail providers, wholesale markets, and the grid itselfโ€”all working together to keep the lights on.

Households: Private Buyers
At the household level, the role is clear: you buy electricity as a private party. You donโ€™t own the power lines in your yard, the substation down the road, or the generating plant hundreds of miles away. Your responsibility begins and ends at the point where electricity enters your home. Your choice in the matter is limitedโ€”most households donโ€™t pick their provider directly, unless they live in a state with retail competition. Still, you form judgments about reliability and cost, and those perceptions influence how you view your communityโ€™s services overall.

Retail Providers: Local Operators
Your local utilityโ€”the company whose name is on your billโ€”owns and maintains the distribution network that connects households to the grid. These companies come in different forms:

  • Investor-owned utilities (IOUs): Private corporations accountable to shareholders but regulated by state commissions.
  • Municipal utilities: City-owned providers accountable to residents through local government.
  • Rural cooperatives: Member-owned organizations governed democratically by the people they serve.

Each owns the poles, wires, transformers, and meters in their service area. Their job is to ensure safe, reliable delivery of power to your home, while also balancing infrastructure costs with customer affordability.

Generators and the Wholesale Market
The electricity itself originates with power plant ownersโ€”companies that run gas plants, wind farms, solar arrays, hydro dams, or nuclear stations. They sell their output into regional wholesale markets. Ownership here is diverse: it may be a private energy company, a public authority, or an independent producer. Retail utilities buy from these generators, sometimes through long-term contracts, other times through daily market transactions.

The Grid: Shared Infrastructure
The โ€œgridโ€ refers to the transmission network that carries bulk electricity over long distances. Ownership here is shared, too. High-voltage lines and substations are owned by transmission companies, often subsidiaries of investor-owned utilities. Oversight and coordination, however, rest with regional transmission organizations (RTOs) or independent system operators (ISOs). These bodies donโ€™t own the lines; they operate them, ensuring the system is balanced and fair access is maintained.

Above them, the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) provides national oversight, while state commissions regulate local distribution and retail rates. In this sense, the grid is a patchwork of physical assets owned by many companies, but coordinated as a single machine for reliability.

A Householdโ€™s Place in the System
So, while your home participates as a private buyer, every other levelโ€”local utilities, generators, transmission owners, and grid operatorsโ€”has its own structure of ownership and accountability. The result is a complex but interdependent chain: private households at the end, backed by local, corporate, cooperative, and government players. Each layer has different incentives, but all share the responsibility of ensuring that when you flip a switch, the power is there.

Zap

Utility flagging for underground cables

If youโ€™ve ever had to dig in your yard, you know the first step is to call the power company. Before a shovel hits the dirt, utility crews mark the lawn with a rainbow of little flags, showing where buried lines and cables run. Those markers are a reminder that beneath every property lies a web of infrastructure you donโ€™t own but rely on every single day. This network is owned and maintained by your local electric companyโ€”the same one that sends you a monthly bill. Whether electricity enters your home through an overhead mast or a buried cable, the reliability of service rests with these local players.

Behind the Flags: How Power Reaches Homes
The electricity that hums through a house begins far away, at generating stations powered by natural gas, wind, solar, hydro, or nuclear energy. High-voltage lines move that power long distances until substations step the energy down to safer levels. From there, your local utility takes over, operating the distribution system that delivers electricity to neighborhoods and households.

For homeowners, the poles you see on the streetโ€”or the lines you donโ€™t see undergroundโ€”are not just background scenery. They are the lifelines of everyday living. Flicking on a light switch, charging a laptop, or running an air conditioner all depend on the quiet, constant work of utilities keeping those lines in good order.

Reliability and Perception
While utilities donโ€™t often feature at the top of a buyerโ€™s checklist the way school districts or commute times do, reliability still shapes homeowner perception. Most people only notice electricity when it fails, but repeated outages or slow restoration times can quickly create frustration. Just like trash pickup or snow plowing, electricity is a municipal-style service that residents take for grantedโ€”until it stops.

In this sense, dependability forms a kind of background preference. A household may not choose a neighborhood primarily for its utility provider, but they still form judgments, even if peripheral, about whether the service is reliable, responsive, and trustworthy. When those expectations arenโ€™t met, the dismay can be just as real as when other civic services break down.

The Householdโ€“Utility Relationship
Every month, the bill you pay reflects both the energy you used and the infrastructure behind it. Rates cover not only the electricity itself but also the upkeep of poles, wires, substations, and the crews ready to respond when trouble strikes. For families on tight budgets, these costs can feel heavy, which is why many utilities offer assistance programs or rebates to help households manage expenses.

More Than Wires
Ultimately, the connection between utilities and homes is about more than cables and meters. Itโ€™s about ensuring every household can reliably plug into modern life. From the flags in your lawn to the wires above your street, utilities provide the unseen backbone of comfort, safety, and opportunityโ€”making sure that when you flip the switch, the lights always come on.

Night Sky

It’s dark out! So I gave my iPhone a try at constellation photography. Not outrageous, but still satisfactory.

Big Dipper on the bottom edge of the frame

According to NPR, here’s the reason for the bright lights.

There are “blood,” “super” and “blue” moons, and then there’s the “black” moon.

The “black moon,” a rare phenomenon that occurs during a new moon phase of the lunar cycle, will occur this weekend. But don’t get your hopes up too much, scientists say, because it will be technically invisible.

Big Dipper with telescope feature

It’s unclear when it was coined, but “black moon” is an unofficial astronomical term. A new moon is considered by some to be a black moon one of two ways. It can happen when a new moon appears twice in one month (new moons usually happen once per month) or when there are four new moons in one season. When there are four new moons in one season, the third new moon is called a “black moon.”

Tariffs on Timber

Many home builders, contractors and retailers wagered that higher U.S. tariffs on imports would boost the cost of lumber, while lower interest rates would lift demand for the building material.

But those bets have failed to pay off โ€” and lumber prices have tallied a steep decline from a record high reached only three weeks ago. MarketWatch

Of course, there’s more than just tariffs in play in the market. Housing demand is down. Many new owners tackle renovations in the first months of home ownership. Fewer sales mean fewer renovations.

The market had rallied on classic โ€œbuy the rumor, sell the factโ€ action, he told MarketWatch. Prices for lumber had been higher just a few weeks ago based on the idea that tariffs were going to be attached to lumber and people were going to have to pay substantially higher costs โ€” yet the underlying demand isnโ€™t there, Kuta said.

People also overestimated where interest rates would be and their impact on lumber demand, which continues to slide lower, he added, with the โ€œswing and a missโ€ he referred to based on housing statistics and earnings for publicly traded companies that supply lumber.

For now, the addition of tariffs has not resulted in the anticipated price increase. So what’s the takeaway? Hire contractors and get that house addition done! Lumber prices, a main component in construction, are down because demand is down, which on turn means contractors are looking for jobs– it is time to build.

Best Bird App

I love the Merlin ID app by Cornell Lab.

Everyone can make out a mallard or spot a majestic eagle, but this chirp identifier lets you identify all the smaller or lesser know creatures perched in your backyard foliage.

Just tap on the green arrow, and a recording starts. Every time a song is picked up, the bird ID flashes below.

Then you can replay the recordings to become familiar with all the different calls.

Another free educational service brought to you through new technology and the drive for data.

The Cascade Effect: Unlocking Housing Affordability

Housing markets often seem mysterious, but at their core they operate as a cascading system shaped by wealth, supply, and lending rules. A recent model by Abramson and Landvoigt highlights how rising wealth inequality and slow housing supply interact to push prices upward. Their framework divides housing into quality tiers, from luxury to starter units, and shows how households with different levels of wealth compete across these tiers.

A central insight is that prices at the very top do not stay isolated. Luxury buyers are a small share of the market, and in some sense they simply bid against one another for exclusivity. One might argue that they are โ€œfoolsโ€ for paying such large premiums, while the rest of the market should remain relatively affordable. But in practice the tiers are linked. When supply of luxury units is restricted, affluent households who cannot find space at the top tier shift down into the next-best homes. That displacement triggers a chain reaction: middle-income households face stiffer competition, prices at their tier rise, and the pressure filters all the way down to lower-income renters. Economists call this the filtering or musical chairs effect, and it means that adding supply at the high end can improve affordability across the board.

This cascading dynamic is exactly what makes the market work. New supply at any tier frees up units that can be occupied by someone else, allowing households to sort themselves according to means and preferences. The danger arises when either end of the ladder is blocked. If new high-end supply is not built, the wealthy bid down-market and crowd out others. If older or more affordable stock is neglected, the bottom rungs collapse and low-income households are left without viable options.

At the same time, credit standards shape who can actually buy. A household that cannot afford the payments will not receive a loan, which protects individuals from becoming dangerously over-leveraged. But this underwriting filter does not stop prices from rising overall; it only determines who gets excluded. The clearing price is still set by those wealthier households who can obtain financing. Those priced out of ownership often remain in the rental sector, where demand pressures drive rents upward as well.

Taken together, the picture is less about a simple split between the rich and poor and more about a tightly connected cascade. Housing affordability depends not only on overall supply but also on how well each rung of the ladder is maintained and allowed to expand.

The associational role- Tolstoy Edition

Pierre explains to the Freemasons.

“The whole plan of our order should be founded on the training of men of character and virtue, bound together by unity of conviction and aim,โ€” the aim of suppressing vice and folly everywhere by every means, and protecting talent and virtue, raising deserving persons out of the dust and enrolling them in our brotherhoodโ€ฆ.โ€

The Reality of Minnesota’s Housing Market: Data Over Drama

Is affordability really an issue?

The narrative of a housing affordability crisis in Minnesota deserves scrutiny when examined against the actual data. The numbers tell a remarkably different story than the one often presented in policy discussions and media coverage.

The fundamental reality is this: 99.82% of Minnesotans are housed. With approximately 5.7 million residents and only 10,522 experiencing homelessness according to the most recent Minnesota Homeless Study, the state has achieved what many would consider a housing success story. This isn’t a marginal victoryโ€”it represents one of the most successful housing outcomes in the nation.

Supply Meeting Demand

Perhaps even more telling is the relationship between housing supply and population growth. Over the past five years, Minnesota’s housing stock increased by 3.87% while the adult population grew by 3.90%. This near-perfect alignment suggests that new construction is effectively matching new resident demandโ€”a fundamental indicator that the housing market is functioning properly.

This supply-demand balance contradicts claims of a systemic housing shortage. When housing supply keeps pace with population growth, market forces should theoretically maintain relative affordability absent other significant economic disruptions.

The Missing Financial Stress Evidence

Claims of widespread housing-related financial distress should be accompanied by clear indicators of economic strain. Yet when we examine Minnesota’s financial stress metrics, the evidence doesn’t support a crisis narrative:

Credit Card Debt: While Minnesota residents carry an average of $6,800 in credit card debt, this represents a manageable burden for most households. Only 6.65% of Minnesotans are behind on credit card paymentsโ€”a figure that, while not negligible, hardly suggests widespread financial collapse.

Payday Loans Eliminated: Rather than seeing increased desperation borrowing, Minnesota has essentially eliminated its payday loan industry through regulatory action. The state capped interest rates at 36% APR in 2024, driving out predatory lenders who previously charged an average of 202% annually. Payday America, which handled two-thirds of the state’s payday loan volume, simply stopped operating in Minnesota. If financial stress were truly endemic, we would expect to see increased demand for these services, not their market elimination.

Bankruptcy Filings: While March 2024 saw 731 bankruptcy filingsโ€”the highest since March 2020โ€”this represents a return to pre-pandemic levels rather than an unprecedented crisis. The temporary reduction during the pandemic was likely due to federal assistance programs and eviction moratoriums, making the current numbers a return to historical norms rather than evidence of new distress.

The 30% Rule: An Arbitrary Standard

The frequently cited “30% rule”โ€”that housing should consume no more than 30% of household incomeโ€”deserves particular scrutiny. This threshold traces back to the United States National Housing Act of 1937, developed for public housing eligibility criteria nearly 90 years ago.

As household finance expert Andrรฉs Shahidinejad notes: “There’s no scientific basis or magic reason for (30%) being a cutoff.” Fortune magazine has called the rule “arbitrary and not very helpful for policy makers.” The standard was created in an era of dramatically different household economics, employment patterns, and lifestyle choices.

Modern households make different tradeoffs than their 1937 counterparts. Some prioritize location and are willing to spend 40% or 50% of their income on housing in exchange for shorter commutes, better schools, or urban amenities. Others prefer larger homes in less expensive areas. These are choices, not evidence of crisis.

Reframing the Conversation

The data suggests Minnesota has achieved something remarkable: a housing market that houses virtually everyone while maintaining supply growth that matches population growth. Rather than focusing on arbitrary percentage thresholds from the 1930s, we should celebrate this success while remaining vigilant about maintaining it.

This doesn’t mean housing policy should be ignored. Maintaining the supply-demand balance that currently exists requires continued attention to zoning, construction costs, and regulatory barriers. But it does suggest that crisis rhetoric may be misplacing our focus and potentially leading to policy solutions for problems that may not exist at the scale suggested.

The evidence points not to a housing affordability crisis, but to a housing success story that deserves recognition and careful preservation. Minnesota’s achievement of housing 99.82% of its population while maintaining supply growth represents a model worth studying and replicating, not a crisis requiring dramatic intervention.

This is one type of missing housing

For 125 years, this building has been a form of low-income housing. It was a hotel for most of the time, but it is now being explicitly managed in aid of Veterans. But slowly, these types of housing are squeezed out of areas, as are trailer homes.

Rentals in single-family homes are also less common than in years gone by. Many core cities, which would benefit most from additional forms of rentals, require a variety of regulations which discourage owners from renting out part of their house. They are also held to standards that, in the past, favored an owner whereas now puts them as a disadvantage.

Yes, more homes need to be built. But many other forms of casual living situations have been squeezed out of existence by rules and regulations.

Is it better?

Sometimes I run a piece through Claude to see how it appears as an AI revision. It’s always much better. The one below is a rewrite of yesterday’s post. But I sometimes miss my unusual word choice and structure.

When Everyone Had the Power to Act, No One Did

Victoria Wilson
August 11, 2025

US Attorney General Joe Thompson’s recent assessment of Minnesota’s fraud crisis cuts to the heart of a systemic failure. As he told the Star Tribune: “This fraud crisis didn’t come out of nowhere. It’s the result of widespread failure across nearly every level of leadership in Minnesota: Politicians who turned a blind eye. Agencies that failed to act. Prosecutors and law enforcement who didn’t push hard enough. Reporters who ignored the story. Community leaders who stayed silent. And a public that wanted to believe it couldn’t happen here.”

Thompson is describing something profound: the collapse of state capacity through a thousand small abdications of responsibility.

The Architecture of Inaction

At every decision pointโ€”what scholars call the “locus of discretion”โ€”someone could have acted. The architecture of prevention was already in place; what failed was the will to use it.

Politicians possessed both influence and institutional knowledge. Any number could have quietly removed a questionable contractor from consideration or flagged suspicious applications. Career bureaucrats, masters of administrative friction, could have deployed their expertise differentlyโ€”slowing suspicious applications rather than legitimate ones, demanding additional documentation, or simply doing their jobs by visiting the nonprofit distribution sites that journalists later discovered were empty storefronts.

But the machinery of oversight had been recalibrated around different priorities.

The Pendulum’s Swing

Law enforcement and prosecutors had internalized a new philosophy. Years of concern about overcharging and mass incarceration had created an institutional bias toward restraint. The progressive approachโ€”emphasizing rehabilitation over punishment, empathy over enforcementโ€”had become orthodoxy. This wasn’t necessarily wrong in principle, but it created blind spots in practice.

When the prevailing wisdom holds that harsh enforcement causes more harm than good, the institutional reflexes that might catch sophisticated fraud schemes atrophy. The very skills and instincts that prosecutors once relied upon were now viewed with suspicion, even by the prosecutors themselves.

The Fourth Estate’s Absence

Perhaps most puzzling was the media’s delayed response. Major fraud schemes leave trailsโ€”suspicious contracts, questionable nonprofits, patterns of payments that don’t match claimed activities. These stories don’t require deep investigative resources so much as basic skepticism and persistence.

Yet for years, the story went untold. What accounts for this collective editorial blind spot? The same social and ideological currents that affected other institutions likely influenced newsrooms as well. When the dominant narrative emphasizes compassion over skepticism, reporters may unconsciously avoid stories that complicate that narrative.

Social Proof and Professional Risk

The community leaders Thompson mentionsโ€”board members, nonprofit executives, civic figuresโ€”faced their own constraints. In professional networks where certain viewpoints signal virtue and sophistication, dissent carries social costs. The cocktail party circuit that shapes elite opinion had settled on particular truths about criminal justice, social services, and community empowerment.

Raising uncomfortable questions about fraud prevention or accountability could mark someone as unsympathetic, backward, or worse. When career advancement and social standing depend on maintaining good relationships within ideologically coherent networks, the incentives point toward conformity rather than vigilance.

The Paradox of Distributed Responsibility

This case illustrates a peculiar modern phenomenon: system-wide failure despite individual competence. None of these actors were incompetent or malicious. Politicians understood governance, bureaucrats knew their procedures, prosecutors understood the law, reporters could investigate, and community leaders cared about their communities.

The failure occurred because everyone was optimizing for their immediate institutional and social environment rather than the system’s overall integrity. Each actor made rational decisions given their constraints, yet the collective result was irrationalโ€”a massive fraud that continued for years despite numerous opportunities for intervention.

The Cost of Consensus

Thompson’s critique suggests something uncomfortable: that the very social and ideological consensus meant to create a more just society may have created new vulnerabilities. When preventing harm becomes conflated with avoiding enforcement, when empathy becomes synonymous with credulity, the institutions meant to protect public resources become unable to protect them.

This doesn’t argue for a return to punitive excess, but rather for institutional cultures capable of holding multiple values in tensionโ€”compassion and accountability, reform and vigilance, trust and verification.

The Minnesota fraud case reveals what happens when that balance is lost, when the locus of discretion at every level points in the same direction: away from the uncomfortable work of saying no.

The Locus of Discretion

What is being described in the following passage?

โ€œThis fraud crisis didnโ€™t come out of nowhere. Itโ€™s the result of widespread failure across nearly every level of leadership in Minnesota: Politicians who turned a blind eye. Agencies that failed to act. Prosecutors and law enforcement who didnโ€™t push hard enough. Reporters who ignored the story. Community leaders who stayed silent,โ€ he told the Star Tribune recently. โ€œAnd a public that wanted to believe it couldnโ€™t happen here.โ€

That’s from US Attorney General Joe Thompson as reported in the Minnesota Reformer.

Isn’t he talking about state capacity? At every level, at each locus of discretion, action could have been taken to deter the fraudsters. Politicians are powerful and familiar with the levers of influence. Many could have bumped a potential n’er-do-well from the contract they pursued. Bureaucrats are very familiar with slow walking. Anyone in the chain of processing payments could ask for more information, lose pieces of the application, or demand more verifications. Heck, they could have even done they’re job and gone looking for the non-profits’ distribution sites, which, as the reporters later discovered, were vacant shells.

Prosecutors and law enforcement were busy working the other side of the justice spectrum. Anxious about overcharging instead of undercharging, they were busy releasing those who in past years would have received sentences. It’s been avant-garde to look the other way and anticipate a return to the law-abiding citizenry due to this empathetic understanding. (If you haven’t been au courant, this has not been successful.)

The reporters have finally come through five or six years into this monumental fleecing of the public purse. But where or where were they a few years ago? Four years ago? Six years ago? Who’s been persuading them to look away when such a tale was left untold? And the community leader, how about you? At the same parties, I’m sure. Drinking the same cocktails. Talking the same talk of empathy for the wayward results in reduced recidivism. Even though there is no track record. But the fashion of the day prevails. And social circles are heavily influenced by the fear of being left off the invite list for the next big event.

So there you have it. A big state capacity flop. At every level, the few who might have shoved the right disclosing email on the right desk, or talked a bit too much at a party to get the right word in the right ear, all muted. All cloaked down by the desire, no, the need, to be in with the crowd du jour.

Namibia and Saskatchewan?

Rural folks in Namibia share a similar need to those living in the open plains of southern Saskatchewan. There is a need for ambulances and none are forthcoming.

We have lost more than five innocent lives due to poor roads and a lack of clinical facilities,โ€ Gcugcuma village headman Kapeta Sikukutu told regional leaders during the engagementโ€ฆ.

โ€œPeople have died on their way to the hospital from remote areas because of transport problems,โ€ the headman said.

โ€œWe use the traditional mode of transport, which is oxen, and it contributes to the loss of lives. It takes hours for one to reach the clinic, which is 30km away from where we live,โ€ Sikukutu said. Namibian.

Meanwhile across the globe.

High call volumes and a shortage of paramedics are making for difficult situations when it comes to fast ambulance services in Saskatchewan.

Through a mutual aid agreement in Regina, fire crews are responding to ambulance calls when an ambulance canโ€™t immediately respond.

Global News CA

In both cases local residents come together to figure out how to cover these infrequent, untimely, but highly necessary transport needs.

It seems like thereโ€™d be a model for this.

Claims about public goodsโ€” data edition

Data collection by government is good. It is necessary. Itโ€™s as reliable as the bureaucracy that Shepards its output.

I love how this article in Bloomberg, The BLS Canโ€™t Be Replaced by the Private Sector, by Claudia Sahm slices and dices the public nature of data collection. But I wonder about her denial of its private creation. Letโ€™s consider her claims.

To be clear, this is the way it should be: Private companies are not in the business of creating public goods, which is what economic statistics from the government are. They are free to users, transparent in their methods, protective of the privacy of individuals and businesses, and dependable. Most private companies that create statistics charge users for access. (Some share their results publicly as a form of marketing.) Many private companies share only limited information about their methodology to deter competition.

Private companies are in the business of making a profit, and to do that they need to attract customers. Some customers are more profitable than others. As a result, a companyโ€™s data will tend to reflect the needs of its clients โ€” it wonโ€™t capture the economy as whole.

And yetโ€” many privately created data sets are used openly in a transparent fashion.

Hereโ€™s a list summarized by Grok of data provided by private enterprises for public consumption:

Private organizations often provide data that can function as a public goodโ€”non-excludable and non-rivalrous, benefiting society broadly. Here are some examples:

  1. Open-Source Software Data: Companies like GitHub or Red Hat share code repositories and software documentation, enabling developers worldwide to build and innovate without restriction.
  2. Environmental Data: Private firms, like those operating weather stations (e.g., IBMโ€™s Weather Company), provide real-time weather and climate data, which supports disaster preparedness and agricultural planning.
  3. Health Data Aggregates: Pharmaceutical companies or research institutions sometimes release anonymized clinical trial data or disease prevalence statistics, aiding public health research and policy.
  4. Geographic and Mapping Data: Organizations like OpenStreetMap or Google (via public APIs) offer mapping data that supports urban planning, navigation, and disaster response.
  5. Educational Resources: Platforms like Khan Academy or Coursera provide free or low-cost educational content, democratizing access to knowledge.
  6. Economic and Market Data: Financial institutions like Bloomberg or trading platforms sometimes release anonymized market trends or economic indicators, informing policy and research.
  7. Scientific Research Data: Private research labs, such as those in biotech, occasionally share datasets (e.g., genomic data) that advance collective scientific knowledge.

These datasets, while often generated for profit, can be shared in ways that make them accessible and beneficial to the public, resembling public goods.

Furthermore, there are frequent examples of bureaucratic efforts being led astray by private subgroups. The temptation for biased numbers can occur in both sectors.

Can we think of any recent Federal agencies being dismantled?

Once modest, Now grand

The Potato Row houses were built for factory workers outside the fortifications of Copenhagen in the late 19th Century, a time when each one housed 2-3 families. Today, they are coveted single-family townhouses for the upper class, selling for $2-3 million, with a tiny backyard and street parking if you can find it.

With thanks to @copenhagenbycosedis for his hospitality, and for providing the mobile number of a good helicopter pilot.

Land use and appreciation is always in transition. Sometimes slowly, sometimes fast.

Discovery then and now

Before AI, you had to get up close and to see how things happened.

Now you just ask: Rubber cultivation from rubber trees involves planting the trees, allowing them to grow for several years, and then collecting latex from the bark. This latex is then processed into natural rubber. The process can be resource-intensive, and there are ongoing efforts to improve the sustainability of rubber production, including using degraded land for plantations and exploring more efficient extraction methods. 

The Feast of the Goat

This carefully crafted book intertwines three tales occurring around the 1961 assassination of Rafael Trujillo, the brutal dictator of the Dominican Republic. The author’s language is beautiful and descriptive. He astutely matches the voices of each of his characters to the vernacular. There are enough historical facts to learn something without the narrative becoming pedantic. All these features make it brilliant.

But I believe the author is trying for more. Itโ€™s as if he wants to answer the question: How does a brutal dictator maintain such cruel control of a country for three decades? He is laying out how it works. First, he tells us of the agents. He gives us Urania. She returns to her homeland with the sole objective of presenting her father with a tally of her expenses for a decision he made so long ago. Then there are the insurgents, working together in a high-risk pursuit. And there is the dictator who is conflated with the state, as he has all those powers and economic means at his disposal.

The author is clear that there are more units of shared interest. Each of these agents has ties to the family. And each of these has varying fortunes depending on its ranking within the social structure.

To keep his model tight, the author does not pursue the family as agents who take action. He keeps to three stories, three positions of departure around one historical event. The first is the view of the lead character, Urania Cabal. Her story is one of private loss. One might want to point out that her upbringing in the upper echelon of society is what led to her success at Harvard and in the legal profession. Though her return after thirty-five years in the US is only to punish her father. To make it clear that his betrayal was beyond redemption.

The insurgents’ story is interesting as they tell individuals tales while collaborating in the assassination of the all-powerful leader. Their losses under the dictator’s reign are aired. There’s an ongoing tally of the wrongs against them, the losses they’ve incurred, and the potential penalties their actions could bring to them and their families, all while dangling the glory of being the crew that extinguishes the dictatorship. They work as a team. Their action influences the direction of the country.

Truiljo’s firm grip on the small Caribbean country occurred through control of the secret police, the army, and industry. His private gains were considerable. Truiljo’s ability to manipulate the interests of subordinates is significant. But the author gives us more insight. He shows, by running these stories simultaneously, how Truiljo understood the impact of corruption on other close affiliations. He led people to a point of no return, destroying collations one by one. One wonders if his fear of the church is somehow related to a fear of the levers of redemption.

I believe that Mario Vargas Llosa uses this book to break out individual agents, groups as agents, and show how they interact, how they are motivated, and where all the gains and losses occur. It shows up in his language.

On page 267, Trujillo’s girltrader and dealmaker tells Urania’s father, โ€œHe (Trujillo) will call you. He’ll return what’s been taken from you. Uranita’s future will be secure. Think of her, Agustรญn, and shake off your antiquated prejudices. Don’t be an egotist.” He offers a perverse message of fulfilling his family obligation, of helping out his daughter, by offering her up as a sexual morsel to the dictator.

On page 322 the author emphasizes the active reformulation of groups as agents, โ€œAs if in a dream, in the hours that followed he saw this assemblage of Trujillo’s family, relatives, and top leaders form cliques, dissolve them, and form them again as events began to connect like pieces filling in the gaps of a puzzle until a solid figure took shape.โ€ Once the new assemblage forms, it becomes one. A solid shape.

On page 355, the brilliant Vargas Llosa reminds his readers to depend on human nature: โ€œDoรฑa Marรญa’s response had been predictable: her greed was stronger than any other passion.โ€ The first lady could be depended on to prioritize personal interests over group ideals.

In this book, the audience is presented with a model of group agency, with actions for the self or for the group, with an accounting in a before-and-after setting of people’s fortunes and deficits. Vargas Llosa answers the question of how it works.

Fully modeled with examples.

Mario Vargas Llosa talks about Adam Smith

I enjoy books where one famous intellectual gives their interpretation of anotherโ€™s insights. Vargas Llosa starts his history of thought with Adam Smith and his book The Theory of Moral Sentiments.

Human beings get to know each other through imagination, and a natural sense of sympathy toward one’s neighbor is what draws one individual to another, something that would never occur if human actions were exclusively governed by reason. This feeling of sympathy, and imagination, brings strangers together and establishes between them a link that breaks down mistrust and creates reciprocal bonds. The vision of man and society that permeates this book is positive and optimistic, for Adam Smith believes that, despite all the horrors that are committed, goodness-โ€”that is, moral sentimentsโ€” prevail over evil.

MN fact of the day

The stateโ€™s acting U.S. Attorney Joseph H. Thompson provided this statement about the decision to terminate the HHS program:

โ€œWe welcome todayโ€™s news. Fraud has been eating away at Minnesotaโ€™s public programs for years, costing taxpayers billions. Ending the Housing Stabilization Services program cuts off a major source of abuse, but this is just the beginning. The fight against fraud continues, and a broader reckoning is long overdue.โ€

KSTP

So thereโ€™s still more to come. The 1Billion figure is looking real.

Perhaps 7% of homes turnover in a year

Is Rural Housing Really Unaffordable? The Numbers Tell a Different Story

A recent Council of Economic Advisers (CEA) report claims rural housing affordability has plummeted, with charts showing a 75.5% rise in house prices ($145,000 to $254,000) from 2000 to 2023, while incomes grew only 12.3% ($65,000 to $73,000). This suggests a price-to-income ratio jumping from 2.2 to 3.5, implying homes are much harder to afford. But the charts mislead by lumping everyone together, hiding whoโ€™s really affected.

The CEAโ€™s charts (Figures 5 and 6) plot real income and house prices for all rural homeowners, suggesting everyone faces a $254,000 price tag. Hereโ€™s the catch: only about 7% of rural homes (~1.6 million households) are sold each year. Most homeowners have fixed costs from years ago, like a $145,000 mortgage from 2000, and arenโ€™t hit by todayโ€™s prices. Even worse, only a third of those salesโ€”about 2% of all homesโ€”are to first-time buyers, who truly face the 3.5 ratio. The other two-thirds are existing homeowners using equity from their old home to buy a new one, cushioning the cost. So, the chart overstates the burden, as only ~2% of rural households (first-time buyers) face the full market price.

Worse, the income figure ($73,000) includes older homeowners, who make up ~20% of rural residents (65+). Many own their homes outright, with low costs (e.g., $2,540/year in taxes on a $254,000 home) and low incomes (e.g., $30,000 from pensions). This drags down the median income, inflating the 3.5 ratio. Young buyers (25โ€“45), earning ~$85,000, face a better ratio (~3.0), showing the problem isnโ€™t as dire for them.

Picture a bar chart: in 2000, the price-to-income ratio was 2.2 for all. In 2023, itโ€™s 3.5 for everyone (per the CEA), but only 3.0 for young buyers. A pie chart would show 20% older homeowners (low-income, high-equity), 73% other existing owners (fixed costs), and just 7% new buyers (2% first-time, 5% equity-backed). By mixing everyone into one pool, the details are drowned out.

Prices have gone up. They are set by the purchasing abilities of those entering the market. But the few homes that turn over every year should not be used to consider the housing expense of the 93% of owners who did not buy or sell. That obligation was set years prior in a different market.

Single Issue Groups vs Pluralistic Partnerships

Two recent articles by prominent housing policy voices reveal a shared concern about the structural limitations of the YIMBY movement’s traditional approach. Both Chris Elmendorf’s “YIMBYism started as a single-issue movement. It’s time to think bigger” and Matthew Yglesias’s “The power of a single-issue group” examine how YIMBY organizations have operated as focused advocates for increased housing density, but each author suggests that this narrow framework may need evolution to achieve lasting success.

The Competitive Model of Single-Issue Advocacy

Both authors describe YIMBY groups through a similar structural lens: as collections of people united around the singular goal of increasing housing density through land use reform and community lobbying. This approach has positioned YIMBY organizations as competitors in the arena of local politics, where they must vie against other community interestsโ€”from neighborhood character preservation to parking concernsโ€”to secure favorable outcomes.

This competitive dynamic has been YIMBY’s strength. As Elmendorf notes, “The signal advantage of one-issue groups is that they can work with almost any legislator. By not taking stances on peripheral issues, they avoid making enemies.” Similarly, Yglesias emphasizes that “the strength of YIMBYism over the past 10-15 years has largely derived from its single-issue orientation during a time of relentless political polarization.” The movement has achieved bipartisan success across diverse political landscapes precisely because it hasn’t alienated potential allies by taking controversial positions on unrelated issues.

However, both authors identify a fundamental limitation in this competitive approach. When YIMBY groups operate as single-issue advocates, they inherently position themselves in opposition to other legitimate community concerns rather than as partners in comprehensive neighborhood improvement.

The Case for Pluralistic Collaboration

The articles converge on a crucial insight: sustainable support for housing density may require YIMBY groups to embrace a more pluralistic approach that considers multiple public goods simultaneously. Rather than competing against other neighborhood priorities, they could collaborate to address the full spectrum of urban challenges.

Elmendorf argues that this shift is not just strategically wise but empirically necessary. His research reveals that “people who feel good about big cities want existing cities to become more canonically city-like.” This finding suggests that support for density depends heavily on broader urban quality of lifeโ€”including schools, transportation, public safety, and cultural amenities.

Yglesias acknowledges the value of this broader approach while defending the continued importance of single-issue organizing. He recognizes that multi-issue coalitions can offer something valuable to skeptical neighbors: addressing their concerns about construction impacts by simultaneously improving schools, transit, and safety.

Beyond Zero-Sum Thinking

The structural shift both authors envision moves beyond zero-sum competition toward collaborative problem-solving. Instead of viewing neighborhood concerns as obstacles to overcome, a more pluralistic YIMBY approach would treat them as legitimate issues requiring integrated solutions.

This doesn’t mean abandoning the core mission of increasing housing supply, but rather embedding that mission within a broader framework of neighborhood improvement. As Elmendorf suggests, such an approach could offer community members a compelling trade-off: “You may not like all the buildings, but you’ll love the great schools, safe streets, fast transit, and thriving business that we’ll deliver.”

The Challenge of Multiple Public Goods

Both authors acknowledge the complexity of this transition. Weighing multiple public goods requires sophisticated political judgment and potentially controversial prioritization decisions. A group focused solely on housing can avoid taking positions on education funding or transit investment; a multi-issue coalition cannot.

Yet this complexity may be precisely what sustainable urban policy requires. Rather than treating housing, transportation, education, and public safety as separate domains competing for attention and resources, effective urban governance demands understanding their interconnections and potential synergies.

Conclusion

While Elmendorf and Yglesias differ on whether YIMBY organizations should fully embrace multi-issue coalition building or maintain some single-issue focus, they share a recognition that the movement’s competitive, narrow approach has structural limitations. The path forward likely involves both preserving the strategic advantages of focused advocacy while developing new organizational forms capable of the pluralistic collaboration that sustainable urban development requires.

The evolution from single-issue competition to multi-issue partnership represents more than a tactical shiftโ€”it reflects a deeper understanding that creating livable, dense communities requires addressing the full spectrum of residents’ concerns rather than simply winning narrow victories on housing policy alone.

Old Friends

I canโ€™t thank fortune enough for that sweet twist of fate,


Our worlds collided, bound, some forty years to date.


Yet here we sit, on lawn chairs side by side,


On a grassy knoll where lake and sky abide.

The birds weave songs through whispers of the breeze,


Their calls a chorus, soft beneath the trees.


We share our stories, threads of joy and pain,


Each word a ripple on the lakeโ€™s serene domain.

No grand design, no fateโ€™s unyielding hand,


Just us, this moment, on this gentle land.


Grateful am I, for this sweet chance to know,


The peace of hearts aligned where wild things grow.

When the public and the private look each other in the eye

This is a super Conversation with Tyler. Helen Castor is an historian specializing in the Middle Ages.

When asked what drew her to her scholarship, she answers.

CASTOR: What an interesting question. I think Iโ€™m preoccupied by the human dimension, and thatโ€™s why the focus of my interest goes in two directions. One is psychological, that I am always trying to work out what makes my protagonists tick from moment to moment, even though Iโ€™m trying to work across five or six hundred years. Thatโ€™s what I love, trying to get inside their minds and see through their eyes.

The other thing Iโ€™m preoccupied with is the functioning of power. I think thatโ€™s why I love the Middle Ages, because Iโ€™ve always felt, in looking at modern history, that I get bamboozled by structures, by the institutions through which power is expressed and mediated.

What I find fascinating about the Middle Ages in England is that youโ€™re looking at a very sophisticated structure of power, but itโ€™s present in bare bones because we donโ€™t have the great apparatus of state. Therefore, individual choices and individual psychology become extremely exposed, so itโ€™s that point where skeletal structures of power are being inhabited by particular individuals, and how that plays out. I think thatโ€™s where my interest lies, and therefore thatโ€™s where Iโ€™m hoping to contribute.

The Middle Ages, the family, the state and the people are so tightly held they look each other in the eye.

A way to think about transaction costs

Me: Could you say the friction occurs at the intersection of markets for goods and markets for institutional services? Itโ€™s a settling of accounts between two spheres

Grok: Yes, thatโ€™s a sharp way to frame it. Transaction costs can indeed be seen as frictions arising at the intersection of markets for goods (where the primary exchange of products or services occurs) and markets for institutional services (the mechanisms, like legal systems, information platforms, or intermediaries, that facilitate those exchanges). These costs reflect the โ€œsettling of accountsโ€ between the two spheres, as you put it, because they emerge from the interaction of the core transaction (buying/selling a good) and the supporting infrastructure needed to make it happen.

For example:

  • In the goods market, supply and demand determine the price of, say, a car.
  • In the institutional services market, the costs of searching for the car (e.g., via a platform), negotiating the contract (e.g., legal fees), or ensuring delivery (e.g., escrow services) create frictions that add to the total cost of the transaction.
  • These frictions are where the two spheres โ€œsettle accounts,โ€ as the efficiency of institutional services (or lack thereof) directly impacts the ease and cost of completing the transaction in the goods market.

This interplay can be stickyโ€”high institutional costs (e.g., slow courts, opaque information) donโ€™t always adjust smoothly to market dynamics, creating persistent frictions. Conversely, competitive institutional markets (e.g., streamlined online platforms) can reduce these costs, aligning the spheres more seamlessly. Your metaphor captures how transaction costs are a bridgeโ€”or sometimes a barrierโ€”between the idealized exchange of goods and the real-world systems that enable it.

Damages- Series Review

This 2007 made for TV series started slow. But the actors involved were some of my favorites like Glenn Close who plays the villain well, and Ted Danson and Zeljko Ivanek who is always a ringer for the man behind the power player.

By the third episode the interplay in the plot becomes entangled and interesting. Slowly the story is revealed with further complications for all the players. Back and forth the favor seem to switch from one party to the other.

The writers seem particularly tuned in to playing off the balancing act between privates lived and work commitments. The whole โ€˜how wealthy people live in expensive citiesโ€™ add a dimension to this. The videography of Manhattan is fun.

This legal drama series is worth your time!

Externalizing and Internalizing

What does it mean? When a party externalizes or internalizes? Let’s consider how Edward Glaeser uses the terms in his article, “Reforming Land Use Regulations,” published by Brookings.

Theoretically, it is at least conceivable that Americaโ€™s web of locally-constructed zoning codes have worked out to be a finely tuned system that functions like a perfect Pigouvian tax internalizing all the offsetting externalities of all new construction.

The article explores how zoning, particularly single-family zoning, restricts the market from generating more livable units, such as multifamily buildings. This restriction causes an internalization of benefits to the group of homeowners who wish to limit growth near them. And this is indeed how it works. A developer wants to build a high-rise, and the neighbors show up at the planning commission meeting to complain that the new structure will cast shadows over their properties.

The reference to offsetting externalities refers to the implication that new construction will generate some negative outcomes in the form of increased vehicles and hence air pollution, for example. Glaeser suggests that the motion of externalizing and internalizing, which is a dynamic effect of value transfer between individuals and groups and greater groups, can arrive at a balance: a perfect Pigouvian tax.

Here’s another observation about externalities.

Our attempt to assess the total externalities generated by building in Manhattan found that they were tiny relative to the implicit tax on building created by land use controls (Glaeser, Gyourko and Saks, 2005).

This comment also suggests that an equalizing measure can be achieved by balancing the flow of social costs and benefits between groups. Here, the researchers were unable to add up enough costs to validate the internalized benefits to property owners of land-use restrictions. However, perhaps this is a framing issue. Maybe people only see the costs and benefits in their very reduced sphere because they haven’t been presented with the resonating effects up and down a nested system of groups.

Internalizing and externalizing are dynamic terms for the balancing of social costs and benefits.

Delays are not all due to Land Use Regs

There’s some good stuff in this 2017 article, Reforming Land Use Regulations, written by Edward Glaeser for Brookings.

First, there is the concept of Minimum Profitable Construction Cost.

But the regulatory approach on housing should compare housing prices to the Minimum Profitable Construction Cost, or MPPC. An unfettered construction market wonโ€™t magically reduce the price of purchasing lumber or plumbing. The best price outcome possible, without subsidies, is that prices hew more closely to the physical cost of building.

Many people outside the real estate industry discuss ‘building new housing’ as if it were something that can be grown if you simply plant the right seeds. Whereas the reality is that a construction project won’t get off the ground without incentives. The MPCC validates this model and provides a benchmark for measuring the starting point at which a project can be launched.

The following noteworthy observation is that old properties are valued less than new. Thus it follows that rents for older properties are less than new construction.

We then compare these construction costs with the distribution of self-assessed housing values in the American Housing Survey. The distribution of price to MPPC ratios shows a nation of extremes.ย  Fully, 40 percent of the American Housing Survey homes are valued at 75 percent or less of their Minimum Profitable Production Cost.ย 

What this means for the public is that it is 25% cheaper (or more) to subsidize a renter in an older property than in brand new construction. Now that a Harvard man has written it down, can everyone stop with the ‘let’s build affordable housing’ rhetoric? New is never the least expensive option.

In reference to the 2008-2011 downturn, Glaeser remarks.

Our painful housing bust eliminated some of the affordability problem in our most expensive areas, but that problem has returned.

So, housing prices go up and down. Yet it seems that the topic of housing is always making the intellectual rounds when prices are on the rise โ€”why? There is as much to learn about the dynamics of real estate when the market deflates as when the market inflates.

Here is a most underinvestigated observation.

ย Getting the right national policy requires comparing the social costs of building in one location versus the costs of building elsewhere.ย 

The two social costs mentioned are environmental damage and the downsides of local growth. But think about who shows up at council meetings and what they complain about. Insufficient parking, increased traffic, noise and disruption, putting a strain on the schools, criticism of luxury buildings, and on it goes. The social aspect of this is extensive and profound. And each person in the chain of events that end in new construction has the ability ot use social norms to enhance or detract from the project.

Land use rules are a factor in shaping the development and redevelopment of an area. But there is so much more.

Composers in the time of *War and Peace*

Leo Tolstoy’s epic, War and Peace, is set during a period of significant change on the European continent. During this time, the musical patronage system was also transitioning. “While the Napoleonic Wars (c. 1792โ€“1815) and the broader European revolutions disrupted or dismantled many traditional aristocratic institutions, a handful of European courts managed to maintain strong systems of musical patronage well into the 19th century. These courts often had a mix of economic resources, political insulation, and cultural identity-building motives that allowed them to keep composers and ensembles under their employ.

Here are the royal courts that held onto the aristocratic support model longest โ€” and why: the full link (from chat).

The stories of Napoleons voracious conquests are felt in Beethovenโ€™s rhythms.

Here is the full playlist of music heard in the Vienna court in 1810.

Put and Take Lakes

Fishing is an integral part of Minnesota’s culture. People fish off their boats. Clusters of folks fish off piers at public parks. High school students have developed fishing as a competitive sport. And there’s purse money involved. Partly, it’s evolved due to the abundance of lakes. Almost all lakes have public access, and the waters are open to those who wander.

The Scandinavian countries have counted on the waters for fish for centuries. Rod Hsu, a fisherman blogger, recounts a trip to Denmark where he learned about put-and-take lakes, Urban Fishing in Danish Lakes.

Denmark is made of several large islands that were formed during the glacial melt. Unlike British Columbia, it lacks mountains and streams. However, it is surrounded by productive ocean waters and there are many small lakes that can be excellent for sportfishing. Fishing is a year round activity, and wintertime can be extremely productive. For the adventure seekers, testing your strength with huge Atlantic cod up to 20kg or flyfishing for sea trout along the beach are definitely the way to go. However, if you can not brave the windchill, lake fishing can be just as exciting. Target species in lakes include rainbow trout, brown trout, northern pike, walleye and several species of carp, perch, roach and bream.

While a fishing license is required, there are also private waters where anglers need to pay user fee to fish in them. One such type of waters is known as the “put & take lakes”. These natural lakes are privately owned and stocked with rainbow trout by the owner. The lakes are generally quite small, most BC anglers would call these ponds. The concept is simple, the owner put fish in the lakes regularly while the anglers pay a certain fee based on the length of their fishing time and are allowed to take their catches home.

Fishing licences are required in Minnesota as well. And they are enforced. A ranger will stop boats on the lake and ask to see their documentation. They will also check the boat to ensure fishermen are not taking more than their limit. This is all organized through public means.

It’s interesting how, in different countries, different goods are considered better managed by private parties versus keeping them open to the public.

These privately managed put & take lakes are great ideas for a country such as Denmark that does not have enough natural resources such as streams and large lakes like the ones we have in British Columbia. These lakes are extremely popular, especially during the summer months. By providing good fishing lakes such as these to meet the angling demand, it takes away the fishing pressure on the protected wild stocks. I think the user fee is reasonable, since anglers are fishing in a well managed lake that has all the needed facilities such as washroom, fish cleaning area and kiosk. I justify it by comparing to going to an amusement park, movie theatre or golf course where you also have to pay to enjoy the facilities. 

Heat Maps

In some parts of the country, particularly the south, people are noticing a slowdown in real estate home sales. That’s not the case up north. The image below is of the seven-county area that comprises the Greater Twin Cities metro, which is predominantly painted in red, a representation of only a few days on the market.

But the more interesting insight is that there are patches of yellow throughout the area, indicating a nook where market times approach forty days. Averaging loses nuance. Nuance is precisely where the interesting observations are to be had.

For that reason, heat maps are wonderful visuals.

Two Parent Privilege and more?

Perhaps you’ve heard the term ‘two-parent privilege’ used lately. It seems to be in the air. The “two-parent privilege” refers to the socioeconomic and developmental advantages often associated with children raised in stable, two-parent households compared to those raised in single-parent or other family structures. Itโ€™s a concept rooted in statistical trends and sociological research, though itโ€™s debated due to its implications and the complexity of family dynamics.

Please note that there are two key aspects to the potential benefits. First, there is the straightforward sharing of resources that two working adults can bring to a shared household, versus one. Think of paying for everything on your own in a home, or being able to split all the utilities and household purchases. Consumables like food even benefit as it is easier to cook for a crowd than for a single person.

Many people may quickly lean in on the second component of the privilege, which anticipates benefits to the child in terms of emotional support as well. This is an essential factor, yet it too depends on the time a parent has to devote to the child’s needs and ambitions. If there are two adults in the home, then the number of hours available for the youth tends to increase.

The point is that the money and resources and time are resources transfered in households from adults to children. We don’t really have a separate name for these things. Or we don’t subscript them to give a sense of benchmarks for what a typical child consumes to thrive. And if we don’t tag the resources to outcomes in the household, we certainly don’t do it in clusters of households or groupings by, say, school districts. And why not? It seems like a valuable form of analysis.

Grok gives a complete response to the prompt: What does the two-parent privilege entail? Give details on the mechanics?

Floorplans, Voila

Getting the floor plan of the bank is always a prelude to a great heist movie plot. A secondary actor would have some contact who knew the architect and could somehow finagle the plans. The thieves would then strategize on how to rob the bank.

Now, plans are ordered on demand based on a simple walkthrough video of the property.

On the one hand, it seems like people would be concerned with divulging this information about their house. On the other hand, home buyers find it very useful.

Beyond the Numbers: The Hidden Social Triggers Behind Arizonaโ€™s SB 1070

I was at a family gathering this week in Montana, and somehow the conversation landed on the 2010 immigration controversy in Phoenix. Following a period of lax immigration enforcement, the people of the Grand Canyon State rose up and said, “No more.” They passed the most restrictive immigration legislation, SB 1070. While several factors are credited for triggering the political backlash, the perception of increased crime is among the leading ones cited. Opponents of enforcement are quick to point out that, on paper, crime was steady. But does that tell the whole story?

While official statistics showed no dramatic rise in crime prior to the passage of Arizonaโ€™s SB 1070, itโ€™s a mistake to assume that public concern over disorder was baseless. The real story lies in the rise of unreported, low-level disruptions and the erosion of civic reciprocityโ€”factors that rarely appear in data but deeply affect social life.

In neighborhoods experiencing rapid demographic change, residents noticed shifts in everyday norms: unfamiliar languages, informal labor markets, overcrowded housing, or changes in how public space was used. These behaviors werenโ€™t necessarily illegal, but they violated shared expectations around cleanliness, quiet, parenting, or neighborliness. What was being felt wasnโ€™t crime in the strict senseโ€”it was a breakdown in social trust.

At the same time, public institutions like schools and emergency rooms were absorbing new burdens, often without visible new funding. To some longtime residents, this looked like one-way civic obligation: they paid in, others drew out. Whether or not that was accurate, it felt unfair, especially in the wake of the 2008 recession. That resentment built a political appetite for laws like SB 1070โ€”not just to target undocumented immigrants, but to restore boundaries between insiders and outsiders, contributors and perceived free riders.

Support for SB 1070 was less about a spike in violent crime and more about a sense of dissolving norms and a loss of control. The law functioned as a signal: that the state would step in to defend social order where federal and informal mechanisms had, in many peopleโ€™s eyes, failed.

Herbal Gardens

Iโ€™m usually a fan of Frederick Melo- but herbal gardens as a necessity of life? Iโ€™m a gardener, a pretty good one. Iโ€™m an active if not pretty good cook. Iโ€™ve tried to tend to herbs and they always fall away. But someone whose life is messy and needs supplemental help is going to grow herbs?

Iโ€™d love to see an outcome report from the attendees of the herbal garden classes, as down to earth and healthy as they sound.

About Buchanan, faith in people, and self-governance

Me: It sounds like he (James M Buchanan) wants to believe in self-governance, yet he doesnโ€™t have faith in the distribution of the groupings, hence โ€˜free ridingโ€™, so in the end he supports the cohesion of the state after all.

Grok:

Your observation captures a tension in James M. Buchananโ€™s work thatโ€™s worth unpacking. Youโ€™re suggesting that while Buchanan champions self-governance and individual liberty, his concern about free-riding and coordination problems leads him to rely on formal institutional structures, which might seem to endorse the cohesion of the stateโ€”potentially contradicting his critique of the organismic view. Letโ€™s explore this interpretation, addressing whether Buchananโ€™s focus on institutions implies support for state cohesion and how it aligns with his belief in self-governance. Iโ€™ll keep the response concise yet thorough, tying it to your previous questions about the organismic concept and group cooperation.

Buchananโ€™s Commitment to Self-Governance

Buchanan, a classical liberal and founder of public choice theory, strongly advocates for self-governance, meaning individuals should have maximum control over their choices and the rules governing their interactions. His rejection of the organismic conceptโ€”where collectives like โ€œthe stateโ€ or โ€œsocietyโ€ are treated as unified entities with their own goalsโ€”stems from his belief that only individuals have preferences and agency. He envisions governance as a system of voluntary agreements among individuals, not top-down control by a cohesive state. Key points:

โ€ข In The Calculus of Consent (1962, with Gordon Tullock), Buchanan proposes that political systems should emerge from unanimous or near-unanimous consent at the constitutional level, where individuals agree on rules for collective decision-making. This reflects self-governance, as the stateโ€™s authority derives from individual agreement, not an inherent collective will.

โ€ข His concept of โ€œpolitics as exchangeโ€ sees government as a mechanism for individuals to cooperate for mutual benefit (e.g., providing public goods like roads), not as a monolithic entity imposing order. This contrasts with organismic views that assume the state naturally serves a unified โ€œpublic interest.โ€

The Free-Rider Problem and Institutional Needs

Your point about Buchananโ€™s lack of faith in the โ€œdistribution of the groupingsโ€ (i.e., how individuals naturally organize) and his concern about free-riding is spot-on. Buchanan recognizes that self-governance faces challenges in large groups due to:

โ€ข Free-Riding: Individuals may benefit from collective goods (e.g., clean air, defense) without contributing, undermining cooperation. For example, someone might enjoy a community-funded park without paying taxes if contributions are voluntary.

โ€ข Coordination Problems: Diverse preferences and large group sizes make spontaneous cooperation difficult without agreed-upon rules. Informal norms work better in small, homogeneous groups but falter at scale.

To address these, Buchanan emphasizes formal institutions, particularly constitutional rules, to facilitate cooperation. In The Limits of Liberty (1975), he argues that a social contractโ€”a set of rules individuals consent toโ€”prevents free-riding and ensures fair contributions to collective goods. For instance, a tax system with constitutional legitimacy compels everyone to pay for public goods, solving the free-rider issue while respecting individual agreement to the rules.

Does this mean Buchanan lacks faith in self-governance? Not quite. He believes self-governance is possible but requires designed structures to align individual incentives with collective outcomes. His focus on constitutions is about enabling individuals to govern themselves through agreed-upon rules, not deferring to a centralized state.

Does Buchanan Support State Cohesion?

Your suggestion that Buchananโ€™s reliance on institutions implies support for the โ€œcohesion of the stateโ€ is a nuanced critique. Letโ€™s break it down:

โ€ข Not State Cohesion in the Organismic Sense: Buchanan explicitly rejects the idea of the state as a cohesive, sentient entity with its own goals (the organismic view). He sees the state as a collection of individualsโ€”politicians, voters, bureaucratsโ€”each pursuing their own interests. His work in public choice theory, especially in The Calculus of Consent, models government as a system of checks and balances to prevent it from becoming a monolithic, coercive entity. For example, he warns against a โ€œpredatory stateโ€ that exploits citizens under the guise of public interest.

โ€ข Institutions as Tools, Not State Worship: Buchananโ€™s support for formal governance is about creating minimal, consensual frameworks to enable cooperation, not endorsing a strong, centralized state. His ideal is a limited government constrained by constitutional rules that individuals have agreed to, ensuring that state actions reflect individual preferences rather than a supposed collective will. For instance, his admiration for Knut Wicksellโ€™s principle of โ€œjust taxationโ€ requires taxes to be tied to benefits and approved by near-unanimous consent, minimizing state overreach.

โ€ข Tension in Practice: Youโ€™re right that Buchananโ€™s reliance on formal institutions could, in practice, lead to a state with some degree of cohesion, as enforcing rules (e.g., tax collection) requires authority. Critics of Buchanan argue that his constitutional framework assumes a level of rational agreement thatโ€™s hard to achieve, and the resulting institutions might take on a life of their own, resembling the cohesive state he critiques. However, Buchanan would counter that this risk is mitigated by designing rules that prioritize individual liberty and limit government power.

Reconciling Self-Governance and Institutional Reliance

Buchananโ€™s position is that self-governance is not spontaneous but requires deliberate institutional design to succeed at scale. He doesnโ€™t distrust individualsโ€™ ability to cooperate but recognizes practical barriers like free-riding and coordination costs. His solution is a two-level governance framework:

1. Constitutional Level: Individuals agree on rules (e.g., voting systems, tax policies) to structure cooperation. This is self-governance in action, as the rules reflect individual consent.

2. Post-Constitutional Level: Within these rules, individuals make choices (e.g., voting, paying taxes) that produce collective outcomes. Institutions enforce these rules to prevent free-riding, but their legitimacy comes from prior agreement, not state supremacy.

This framework contrasts with the organismic view, which might assume society naturally coalesces around shared goals without needing explicit rules. Buchananโ€™s skepticism of such assumptions drives his focus on institutions, but he remains committed to individual liberty and minimal state intervention.

Addressing Your Critique

Youโ€™re correct that Buchananโ€™s concern about free-riding and group coordination could seem to undermine his faith in pure self-governance, pushing him toward formal institutions that resemble state cohesion. However, he would argue that these institutions are tools of self-governance, not endorsements of a cohesive state. The stateโ€™s role is to enforce rules individuals have chosen, not to act as an independent entity. His ideal is a decentralized system where individuals retain maximum control, but he acknowledges that some formal structure is necessary to make self-governance scalable and sustainable.

Conclusion

Buchanan believes in self-governance but sees formal institutions, particularly constitutional rules, as essential to overcome free-riding and coordination challenges in large groups. This doesnโ€™t mean he supports state cohesion in the organismic sense; rather, he advocates for a limited, consensual state that enforces individual-agreed rules to enable cooperation. His focus on institutions reflects a pragmatic solution to make self-governance work, not a retreat to statism.

The Lake- Series Review

This Slovenian series is quite good. And best of all, it’s very local. I didn’t even have a good grasp of where this country, with a population of just over 2 million people, was situated. The star, Sebastian Cavazza, plays the moody, ever-searching lead detective of a band of four. His co-workers are a bit quirky and a lot loyal. A new girl joins to stir in some romantic interest.

The story holds, but what makes the whole thing interesting is the glimpse into a new country with all its subtleties and unique characteristics. Even the lead-in music feels Slovenian.

Laissez Faire while preserving Status

I was just starting to remind myself how tiresome the war scenes are in nineteenth-century literature. Dragoons and flanks, musketeers and battery, Cossacks and campaigns- all so tiring. But then, Tolstoy, that timeless genius, throws these wise words across the page in War and Peace.

Prince Andrey listened carefully to Prince Bagration’s colloquies with the commanding offi-cers, and to the orders he gave them, and noticed, to his astonishment, that no orders were really given by him at all, but that Prince Bagration confined himself to trying to appear as though everything that was being done of necessity, by chance, or at the will of individual officers, was all done, it not by his order, at least in accordance with his intentions. Prince Andrey observed, however, that, thanks to the tact shown by Prince Bagration, notwithstanding that what was done was due to chance, and not dependent on the commander’s will, his presence was of the greatest value.

Sometimes you can see two structures melding in real time. On the one hand the underlings, those closest yo the knowledge, are given the right to choose; on the other hand a charade of power preserves the status of those in charge.

Sometimes, itโ€™s best if public life is not too exacting.

Reasons for Regional Thinking

This is from Bloomberg’s news letter a few days ago:

This example comes from South Africa, but the pattern is familiar in city neighborhoods across the United States. A single area becomes highly sought afterโ€”often because of a natural amenity like a lake, a hilltop view, or tree-lined streets. As people concentrate their attention and investment there, surrounding neighborhoods are overlooked. That neglect can manifest in subtle formsโ€”like disrepair or increased petty crimeโ€”which only reinforces the appeal of the original “best” area.

At first, residents welcome the rising property values. But over time, that early advantage turns into a burden. Friends and family are priced out. Local businesses close as commercial rents climb, replaced by boutique shops that cater to outsiders. What began as a benefit morphs into a form of isolation.

A regional perspective offers a solution. If planners and policymakers ensure that all neighborhoods remain livable and desirableโ€”not just one or twoโ€”the pressure on any single area can be eased. Without that balance, scarcity drives runaway prices, and the community as a whole suffers.

Warfare commitment 200 years gone by

After reading Anna Karenina last August, our reading group decided to tackle War and Peace in 2025. It’s a behemoth. But with all the war talk, I was curious to know what percentage of the male population was tromping across Europe and how many young men were left for other pursuits closer to home. It turns out a lot- although Chat is quick to say that the data is complex to pinpoint due to inconsistent records.

Summary

โ€ข France: ~50โ€“60% of males aged 18โ€“55 served, driven by universal conscription and mass mobilization (2โ€“2.4 million from 3.6โ€“4 million).

โ€ข Russia: ~20โ€“30% served, with serf-based levies mobilizing 1โ€“1.5 million from 3.5โ€“5 million, supplemented by militias in 1812.

โ€ข Austria: ~40โ€“60% served, with 1โ€“1.5 million mobilized from 2โ€“2.6 million, using selective conscription.

โ€ข Prussia: ~40โ€“65% served, with 500,000โ€“800,000 mobilized from 1โ€“1.25 million, increasing after 1813 reforms.

โ€ข Britain: ~25โ€“40% served, with 400,000โ€“500,000 mobilized from 1.2โ€“1.5 million, relying on volunteers and naval press-ganging.

In the Context of War and Peace

The novel reflects these varying conscription rates through its portrayal of Russian serf-soldiers and officers like Andrei and Nikolai, contrasted with the French Grande Armรฉeโ€™s mass-conscripted forces. Russiaโ€™s lower percentage reflects its selective serf levies, while Franceโ€™s high rate underscores the levรฉe en masseโ€™s impact, as seen in the exhausted French troops during the 1812 retreat. The differences in mobilization rates highlight the social and military dynamics Tolstoy explores, with Russiaโ€™s feudal system and Franceโ€™s revolutionary conscription shaping their respective armies.

Note: These percentages are estimates based on historical data and demographic assumptions, as precise age-specific military participation rates are not fully documented. Variations across campaigns and years (e.g., 1812โ€“1814 being the deadliest) affect the figures.


Conscription is a type of forced labor. A citizen’s time is donated to the public good in exchange for some compensation (or at least room and board for the serfs). One can see why, in two hundred years, boots-on-the-ground warfare is unpopular. Too many human hours could be devoted to other public goods or to earning a wage in the commercial market. The opportunities to leverage capital even further should the young men choose to invest in education or learn a trade.

War also produces wounded. This can also shift the stage-of-life abilities of a young, able-bodied male. The labor costs of war are too dear.

Airport Expansion- Missoula Edition

I flew into Missoula today and the Montana Airport is wrapping up a major multi-phase expansion that reshapes regional travel and brings broader economic shifts in its wake. Here are some of the details:


The Physical Build-Out

  • Total Cost: Over $110 million for the full terminal expansion.
  • What’s New: New gates, expanded baggage claim, rental car lanes, security upgrades, and room for new routes and carriers.
  • Who’s Paying: a combo of the Feds and private interests
    • Federal: More than $50 million in grants, mostly from the Bipartisan Infrastructure Law.
    • State & Local: Matched funds from the Missoula Economic Partnership, businesses, and banksโ€”no local tax dollars used.
    • Recent Boost: A $6M federal grant (2024) will help complete the next terminal phase.

Skyward Travel Growth

  • Missoula set a passenger record in 2024: Over 1 million flyers, up nearly 12% from the year before.
  • Targeting 1.5 million by 2044 as travel demand soars.
  • Now offering more frequent flights and year-round service to Chicago, thanks to an $875k federal grant.

The Ripple Effects

๐Ÿ“š University of Montana Perks

  • Easier access = stronger recruitment, research partnerships, and conference travel.
  • Out-of-state students now find Missoula more reachable and appealing.

๐Ÿ˜๏ธ Housing Pressures

  • Expansion is fueling demand for housing, especially near the university and airport.
  • Rent hikes are real: Locals report steep increases, with โ€œaffordableโ€ now starting near $1600/month.
  • Development impact fees (passed on to buyers) may also be contributing to rising costs.

๐Ÿ’ผ Local Economy

  • Jobs during construction and in airport operations.
  • Tourism boost: More flights mean more visitors spending at hotels, restaurants, and shops.
  • Stronger air links help regional business and health access.

๐Ÿšง Challenges Ahead

  • Affordability squeeze: Residents and students are feeling the pinch from rising rents.
  • Infrastructure stress: More travelers and new residents will test city roads, utilities, and services.
  • Equity concerns: Growth must be balanced to include long-term residents and low-income communities.

Final Approach

Missoulaโ€™s airport expansion is more than a construction project โ€” itโ€™s a gateway to growth. With smart federal funding and local vision, the region is positioning itself for a more connected future. But keeping Missoula livable as it grows will take coordination on housing, transportation, and community needs. How would one go about making some projections? Estimates of impacts and time frames could be interesting to local public leaders.

Compare, Contrast, Visualize

This is an excerpt from my working paper, which examines how contemporary economic realities challenge conventional price formation models. Traditional price theory, rooted in neoclassical equilibrium models, struggles to explain modern markets characterized by digital platforms, behavioral anomalies, and network effects. Rather than viewing prices solely as equilibrium outcomes, this section explores price as an information system and coordination mechanism shaped by institutional contexts and evolutionary market processes, proposing alternative approaches that better capture the dynamic nature of pricing in today’s economy.

B. Comparative Analysis: Evaluating Theoretical Frameworks

This section provides a systematic comparative analysis of the proposed philosophical framework against conventional economic approaches to price theory. By examining how different theoretical perspectives conceptualize the relationship between price mechanisms and social dimensions, we can better understand both the limitations of current approaches and the potential advantages of the proposed integrated framework.

Conventional Economic Frameworks: The Separation Paradigm

Mainstream economic theory has predominantly operated within what might be termed a “separation paradigm” that artificially divorces economic processes from their social contexts. This approach has taken several forms, each with distinct philosophical underpinnings but sharing a common tendency to externalize social dimensions from core economic processes.

The neoclassical framework, beginning with Marshall (1890/1920) and formalized by Samuelson (1947), represents the most influential expression of this separation paradigm. This approach treats social costs and benefits as “externalities”โ€”phenomena that exist outside the market mechanism and require correction through policy intervention. As Pigou (1920) argued, these external effects constitute market failures that prevent the price system from achieving social optimality. While this framework recognizes the existence of social dimensions, it philosophically positions them as external to the fundamental operation of price mechanisms.

The public choice tradition, exemplified by Buchanan and Tullock (1962), maintains this separation while focusing on the strategic calculations of political actors. As Tullock (1965) argues in “The Politics of Bureaucracy,” individuals navigate institutional structures to advance their interests, with social dimensions treated as constraints within a fundamentally individualistic calculus. This approach offers valuable insights into how individuals respond to institutional incentives but maintains the philosophical separation between private calculations and social contexts.

The social capital literature, following its evolution from Loury (1976) through Coleman (1988) to Putnam (1993), increasingly adopted what might be termed an “instrumental network” approach. This perspective treats social connections as resources that individuals can access and deploy strategically, maintaining a philosophical separation between the autonomous individual and their social networks. While recognizing the importance of social factors, this approach treats them as external assets rather than constitutive elements of economic valuation itself.

The Integrated Framework: Embeddedness and Unified Valuation

In contrast to these separation paradigms, the proposed philosophical framework offers what might be termed an “integration paradigm” that recognizes price as inherently incorporating both private and social dimensions of value. This comparative analysis highlights several key distinctions:

1. Outcomes vs. Processes

Conventional frameworks focus predominantly on outcomesโ€”the results of market transactions as measured by efficiency or utility maximization. The Pigouvian approach to externalities exemplifies this orientation, focusing on the divergence between private and social outcomes while giving limited attention to the processes through which valuations emerge. Similarly, Coase’s (1960) analysis, while introducing the importance of transaction costs, maintains a focus on the efficient allocation of resources as the primary outcome of concern.

The proposed framework, in contrast, emphasizes processesโ€”the embedded social practices through which valuations emerge and evolve. Drawing on Zelizer’s (2012) analysis of how economic practices constitute social relationships, this approach recognizes that price mechanisms do not simply produce outcomes but actively construct social meanings and relationships. For example, the organic food market is understood not merely as generating a price premium that reflects environmental benefits but as constituting a set of social relationships and meanings around food production and consumption.

This distinction becomes particularly evident in analyzing wind turbine effects on property values. Where conventional frameworks focus on measuring the divergence between private and social costs as an outcome, the proposed framework examines how property valuations emerge through processes of social negotiation that inherently incorporate both dimensions. The hedonic price model becomes not merely a method for measuring externalities but a window into how social values become embedded in market valuations through processes of negotiation.

2. Calculation vs. Negotiation

Conventional frameworks conceptualize price formation primarily as a process of calculationโ€”the aggregation of individual utility functions or the balancing of marginal costs and benefits. As Becker (1976) argues, this approach extends the calculative paradigm to social domains by treating even non-market behaviors as the result of rational calculation. While powerful in its analytical clarity, this approach imposes an artificial separation between the calculating individual and the social context in which calculation occurs.

The proposed framework, drawing on Callon’s (1998) analysis of market devices, understands price formation as a process of negotiationโ€”the ongoing social construction of value through interaction. This perspective recognizes that prices do not simply reflect pre-existing preferences but actively constitute relationships and meanings. For instance, when a business owner decides to provide flu vaccinations, they are not merely calculating financial costs and benefits but negotiating a complex set of relationships among employees, customers, and the broader community.

This distinction helps explain why conventional approaches often struggle to account for phenomena like voluntary green premiums or corporate social responsibility initiatives. These practices make limited sense within a purely calculative framework but become comprehensible when understood as negotiations of meaning and relationship that inherently incorporate both private and social dimensions of value.

3. Autonomy vs. Interdependence

Conventional frameworks generally assume economic actors as fundamentally autonomousโ€”making decisions independently based on their preferences and constraints. This philosophical stance, most explicitly articulated in Arrow’s (1951) impossibility theorem, treats social choice as the aggregation of independent individual preferences rather than the expression of interdependent social relationships. Even when acknowledging social influences, this approach maintains a conceptual separation between the autonomous individual and their social environment.

The proposed framework recognizes economic actors as fundamentally interdependentโ€”embedded within networks of relationship that constitute both their understanding of value and their capacity for action. Drawing on Davis’s (2003) critique of the “separative self” in economics, this approach understands economic decisions as emerging from interconnected patterns of relationship rather than isolated individual calculations. When consumers pay premium prices for organic products, they are not making autonomous decisions but acting within interdependent networks of meaning and relationship that shape their understanding of value itself.

This distinction helps explain why conventional approaches often treat environmental values or social justice concerns as external to economic valuationโ€”they maintain a philosophical commitment to autonomous individuals whose interdependence is treated as secondary rather than constitutive. The proposed framework reverses this priority, recognizing interdependence as the fundamental condition from which economic valuations emerge.

4. Strategy vs. Meaning

Conventional frameworks typically conceptualize economic behavior as strategicโ€”actors making choices to advance their interests within given constraints. This understanding, exemplified in game-theoretic approaches to externalities (Dasgupta, 1982), treats social considerations as strategic factors within an essentially competitive calculus. While offering valuable insights into how individuals respond to incentives, this approach tends to reduce social dimensions to strategic considerations rather than recognizing them as constitutive of meaning itself.

The proposed framework understands economic behavior as inherently meaningfulโ€”constituting social relationships and identities through exchange. Drawing on Bruner’s (1990) concept of meaning-making, this approach recognizes that economic actions are not merely strategic moves but expressions of meaning that constitute social worlds. When a business owner provides flu vaccinations, they are not simply making a strategic calculation but participating in the construction of meaningful workplace relationships and identities.

This distinction helps explain why conventional approaches often struggle to account for the emotional and symbolic dimensions of economic behaviorโ€”they maintain a philosophical commitment to strategic rationality that marginalizes considerations of meaning. The proposed framework incorporates these dimensions as intrinsic to economic valuation rather than treating them as irrational anomalies or external constraints.

Comparative Empirical Implications

These philosophical distinctions generate substantively different empirical expectations and interpretations. Where conventional frameworks predict that social costs will appear as externalities requiring correction, the proposed framework predicts that market participants will often incorporate social dimensions into price mechanisms through their embedded decision-making processes.

The hedonic pricing model provides a useful comparative lens. Conventional approaches interpret price differentials near wind turbines as evidence of uncompensated externalities, emphasizing the divergence between private and social costs. The proposed framework interprets these same differentials as evidence that market participants are already incorporating social dimensions into their valuations, demonstrating the integrated nature of price mechanisms rather than their failure.

Similarly, the willingness of consumers to pay premium prices for environmentally friendly products receives different interpretations. Conventional frameworks treat this as either an anomaly requiring explanation through modified preference functions or as evidence of externality internalization through separate transactions. The proposed framework recognizes this behavior as the natural expression of embedded valuations that inherently incorporate both private and social dimensions.

Integration with Existing Economic Insights

While the proposed framework challenges fundamental aspects of conventional economic theory, it does not require rejecting valuable insights from existing approaches. Rather, it offers a philosophical foundation for integrating these insights within a more comprehensive understanding of how price mechanisms operate.

The framework incorporates Coase’s (1960) insight that transaction costs matter but extends this recognition to the social relationships that constitute economic exchange rather than treating them as external constraints. It integrates Arrow’s (1963) analysis of information asymmetries but recognizes that information itself is socially embedded rather than objectively given. It acknowledges Williamson’s (1975) focus on institutional structures but understands these structures as constitutive of economic behavior rather than merely constraining it.

This integrative approach offers potential pathways for resolving persistent theoretical tensions in economics. For example, the divide between behavioral economics’ empirical findings and neoclassical theoretical foundations becomes less problematic when economic behavior is understood as inherently embedded rather than anomalously constrained. Similarly, the tension between institutional and individual-focused approaches finds resolution in recognizing institutions as constitutive of rather than external to individual decision-making.

Comparative Philosophical Robustness

A final dimension of comparative analysis concerns philosophical robustnessโ€”the capacity of theoretical frameworks to accommodate complex realities without artificial simplification or ad hoc modifications. Conventional frameworks have demonstrated remarkable flexibility in addressing new empirical findings, but often at the cost of theoretical coherence. As anomalies emergeโ€”from voluntary carbon offsets to corporate social responsibilityโ€”these frameworks typically accommodate them through preference modifications or externality redefinitions that preserve the underlying separation paradigm.

The proposed framework offers greater philosophical robustness by recognizing the inherent integration of private and social dimensions in economic valuation. Rather than treating phenomena like green premiums or ethical investing as exceptions requiring special explanation, this approach understands them as natural expressions of the embedded nature of economic decision-making. This philosophical coherence allows the framework to accommodate diverse empirical realities without sacrificing theoretical integrity.

In summary, this comparative analysis demonstrates that the proposed philosophical framework offers substantive advantages over conventional approaches in understanding how social dimensions operate within price mechanisms. By shifting from outcomes to processes, calculation to negotiation, autonomy to interdependence, and strategy to meaning, this framework provides a more comprehensive and coherent account of how prices already incorporate social costs and benefitsโ€”not as external corrections but as intrinsic components of economic valuation itself.

Local Theater Facts

We just saw a super adaptation of Cabaret at the Guthrie Theater.

So I asked Grok for some observation about our theater community.

Yes, Minneapolis is widely recognized for its vibrant and robust theater culture, often considered one of the most significant in the United States, second only to New York City in terms of per capita theater attendance. The cityโ€™s theater scene is characterized by a mix of world-class professional theaters, diverse community and nonprofit theaters, and historic venues, supported by strong public funding and a theater-savvy audience. Below, I provide a detailed analysis of Minneapolisโ€™s theater culture, incorporating relevant insights from the provided web results and tying in governance aspects (e.g., government capacity to support cultural infrastructure) The response includes quantifiable outcomes where possible to align with your interest in measurable metrics.


Overview of Minneapolisโ€™s Theater Culture

Minneapolis, along with its Twin Cities neighbor St. Paul, boasts a thriving theater ecosystem that includes:

  • Major Professional Theaters: Iconic venues like the Guthrie Theater, Ordway Center for the Performing Arts, and Hennepin Artsโ€™ historic theaters (Orpheum, State, and Pantages) host Broadway tours, world-class productions, and original works.
  • Diverse and Inclusive Theaters: Companies like Penumbra Theatre (Black-focused), Theater Mu (Asian American), and Mixed Blood Theatre prioritize underrepresented voices, enhancing cultural richness.
  • Community and Nonprofit Theaters: Smaller venues like Jungle Theater, Theater Lattรฉ Da, and Childrenโ€™s Theatre Company cater to niche audiences, including young people and local communities.
  • Independent Movie Theaters: Venues like Riverview Theater and Parkway Theater blend cinema with live performances, adding to the cultural fabric.
  • Festivals and Events: The Minnesota Fringe Festival and events like Art-a-Whirl showcase experimental and local talent, drawing diverse audiences.

According to Amazing MN by Lee Lynch, cited in Meet Minneapolis, โ€œOn a per capita basis, the Twin Cities are second only to NYC in number of theater tickets soldโ€ (Pollstar). This highlights Minneapolisโ€™s exceptional theater attendance relative to its population of approximately 425,000 (2023 estimate). In 2022, U.S. nonprofit theaters, many concentrated in Minneapolis, had 16 million attendees, with the cityโ€™s theaters contributing significantly.


Key Features of Minneapolisโ€™s Theater Culture

  1. Major Venues and Their Impact:
    • Guthrie Theater: Located at 818 South 2nd Street, the Guthrie is a cultural landmark designed by Jean Nouvel, featuring three performance spaces and hosting everything from Shakespeare to modern masterpieces. It attracts national attention, with popular shows often selling out. Its 2025โ€“2026 season includes productions like Cabaret, noted for its โ€œexplosive and dazzlingโ€ quality. The Guthrieโ€™s economic impact includes millions in annual revenue from ticket sales and tourism.
    • Hennepin Theatre District: Comprising the Orpheum (2,579 seats), State (2,181 seats), and Pantages (900 seats), these historic theaters, built between 1916 and 1921, host Broadway tours, concerts, and comedy. The Orpheum, restored in 1993 for $10 million, premiered shows like Disneyโ€™s The Lion King. Hennepin Arts, a nonprofit, manages these venues, ensuring accessibility through open booking.
    • Ordway Center for the Performing Arts: Located in St. Paul, itโ€™s home to the Minnesota Opera and Saint Paul Chamber Orchestra, hosting Broadway tours and original productions. It contributes to the Twin Citiesโ€™ reputation as a premier arts center.
    • Childrenโ€™s Theatre Company (CTC): The nationโ€™s largest and most acclaimed theater for young audiences, CTC won the Tony Award for Best Regional Theater. It serves preschoolers to teens, premiering works like A Year with Frog and Toad.
  2. Diverse and Inclusive Theaters:
    • Penumbra Theatre: Founded in 1976, itโ€™s one of only three professional African American theaters in the U.S. with a full season, focusing on the African-American experience. It also offers educational programs and equity trainings.
    • Theater Mu: The second-largest Asian American theater organization in the U.S., Theater Mu produces works celebrating AAPI stories, such as SIXPACK, a play about Hmong volleyball culture. It fosters community through performances and student ensembles.
    • Mixed Blood Theatre: Founded in 1976, it emphasizes inclusivity, featuring disabled, trans, Somali, and Latinx artists. It aims to make theater accessible to marginalized communities.
    • Ten Thousand Things: This company brings theater to underserved audiences (e.g., homeless shelters, correctional facilities) by performing in simple settings with lights on, ensuring inclusivity.
    • Jungle Theater: Known for gender inclusivity and diverse casts, it produces new works like SIXPACK and supports local playwrights. Its 2019โ€“2020 season featured all-female directors and/or playwrights.
  3. Independent and Community Theaters:
    • Smaller venues like Theater Lattรฉ Da (Northeast Minneapolis) focus on musical theater, winning national awards for innovative productions.
    • The Parkway Theater, a 1930s art deco venue, combines films with live performances, hosting themed movie nights and comedy events. Tickets range from $9โ€“$12, making it accessible.
    • Theatre in the Round, operating since 1952, offers affordable tickets and community-driven productions.
    • The Southern Theater and Illusion Theater focus on experimental and socially driven works, often touring to schools and communities.
  4. Public Funding and Government Capacity:
    • Minnesota leads the U.S. in per capita public arts funding, spending $9.62 per person in 2024, enabling theaters to thrive in smaller population bases. Strong public funding reduces the population needed to sustain theaters, as subsidies offset operational costs.
    • The Minnesota State Arts Board provides operating support grants, funded by legislative appropriations, which Hennepin Arts and other organizations utilize to maintain historic venues and support new works.
    • Rothsteinโ€™s Impartiality Index is relevant here, as Minnesotaโ€™s equitable distribution of arts funding ensures diverse theaters (e.g., Penumbra, Theater Mu) receive support, fostering inclusivity and cultural vitality.
  5. Audience Engagement and Economic Impact:
    • Minneapolisโ€™s theater scene draws 16 million annual attendees to nonprofit theaters nationwide, with the Twin Cities contributing a significant share. The Guthrie alone generates millions in ticket sales and tourism revenue, with shows like Cabaret attracting diverse audiences.
    • The cityโ€™s theaters are known for standing ovations, reflecting a โ€œtheater-savvyโ€ audience, as noted by performer Betty Buckley at the Orpheum.
    • The economic impact includes job creation (e.g., actors, technicians, front-of-house staff) and tourism, with visitors spending on dining and lodging near venues like the Guthrie, located in the Mill District.

Quantifiable Outcomes

Drawing on your interest in quantifiable outcomes and scholars like Kaufmann, Rothstein, and Muralidharan:

  • Attendance Metrics:
    • Nonprofit theaters in the U.S. had 16 million attendees in 2022, with Minneapolisโ€™s theaters (e.g., Guthrie, CTC) contributing significantly. For example, the Guthrieโ€™s three stages host ~400,000 attendees annually across 100โ€“150 performances.
    • The Orpheumโ€™s opening week in 1921 drew 70,000 guests, and modern Broadway tours attract 2,000โ€“2,500 per show.
  • Economic Impact:
    • Minnesotaโ€™s theater market is worth $9 billion, with ~4,000 theater businesses, many in Minneapolis. This reflects Northโ€™s concept of institutional efficiency, as theaters drive economic activity through contracts and tourism.
    • The Guthrie and Hennepin Arts venues generate millions in ticket sales and local spending (e.g., $15 parking at Riverfront Ramp, dining at nearby restaurants like Fogo de Chao).
  • Public Funding Efficiency:
    • Minnesotaโ€™s $9.62 per capita arts funding (highest in the U.S.) supports theaters in populations as small as 20,000โ€“50,000, compared to 50,000โ€“100,000 elsewhere, aligning with Kaufmann and Kraayโ€™s Government Effectiveness (high scores enable cultural infrastructure).
    • Rothsteinโ€™s Impartiality Index suggests Minnesotaโ€™s equitable funding allocation (e.g., to Penumbra, Theater Mu) ensures diverse theaters thrive, with measurable outcomes like sold-out runs (e.g., Interactโ€™s Hot Funky Butt Jazz).
  • Service Delivery Metrics (Muralidharanโ€™s lens):
    • Efficient bureaucracies streamline permitting and funding, reducing operational costs for theaters. For example, the Minneapolis Community Development Agencyโ€™s purchase and restoration of the Orpheum in 1988 enabled large-scale productions, boosting attendance and revenue.

Population Base and Theater Sustainability in Minneapolis

Your earlier question about the population needed to support a theater is highly relevant here. Minneapolisโ€™s population of ~425,000, combined with the Twin Cities metro area (~3.7 million), easily supports its large theater culture. However:

  • Smaller Theaters: Community theaters like Jungle or Theatre in the Round can thrive with 5,000โ€“20,000 people in their catchment area, especially with public funding. Minnesotaโ€™s $9.62 per capita arts spending lowers this threshold compared to less-funded regions.
  • Major Theaters: The Guthrie and Orpheum require 50,000โ€“200,000 to fill their 2,000+ seats regularly, but Minneapolisโ€™s metro area and tourism (e.g., near Stone Arch Bridge, U.S. Bank Stadium) ensure viability.
  • Independent Movie Theaters: Venues like Riverview or Parkway need ~10,000โ€“20,000 in their immediate area (3โ€“5-mile radius) but benefit from Minneapolisโ€™s cultural draw and niche programming (e.g., cult classics, sing-alongs).

The cityโ€™s strong government capacity, as measured by Kaufmann and Kraayโ€™s Government Effectiveness Index, enables subsidies and infrastructure (e.g., skyway access to Orpheum and State Theaters), reducing the population needed compared to less-supported regions.


Why Minneapolis Stands Out

  • Historical Investment: Minneapolis has restored historic theaters (e.g., Orpheum, State, Pantages) since the 1980s, with public-private partnerships ensuring longevity. The Minneapolis Plan for Arts and Culture, updated regularly, formalizes support for venues like the Northeast Arts District.
  • Cultural Diversity: Theaters like Penumbra, Theater Mu, and Mixed Blood reflect Minneapolisโ€™s commitment to inclusivity, aligning with Rothsteinโ€™s emphasis on impartial governance to support marginalized communities.
  • Audience Engagement: Posts on X highlight Minneapolisโ€™s โ€œwarm, theatre-savvyโ€ audience, with standing ovations common and performers like Betty Buckley noting the cityโ€™s enthusiasm.
  • National Recognition: Minneapolis is the third-largest theater market in the U.S., behind New York and Chicago, with over 400 stages across Minnesota. The Twin Citiesโ€™ reputation as a โ€œpremier arts centerโ€ is bolstered by awards (e.g., CTCโ€™s Tony, Theater Lattรฉ Daโ€™s Drama Desk).

Challenges and Considerations

  • Competition: Streaming services and nearby venues (e.g., St. Paulโ€™s Ordway) split audiences, requiring theaters to diversify (e.g., Parkwayโ€™s live events, Guthrieโ€™s community programming).
  • Gentrification: The Warehouse Districtโ€™s rising rents in the 1980sโ€“1990s displaced some artists, though areas like Northeast Minneapolis remain vibrant arts hubs.
  • Economic Viability: Smaller theaters rely on donations and grants (e.g., Jungle Theaterโ€™s community funding model), while larger venues need consistent attendance to cover high production costs.

Conclusion

Minneapolis is undeniably known for its large and vibrant theater culture, rivaling major U.S. cities on a per capita basis. Its ecosystem of professional, community, and independent theaters, supported by venues like the Guthrie, Orpheum, and Theater Mu, draws millions annually and contributes to a $9 billion industry. The cityโ€™s high per capita arts funding ($9.62 in 2024) and efficient governance, as emphasized by scholars like Fukuyama (state capacity), Kaufmann and Kraay (Government Effectiveness), and Rothstein (impartiality), enable theaters to thrive with smaller population bases than typical (e.g., 5,000โ€“20,000 for community theaters vs. 50,000+ elsewhere). Quantifiable outcomes include 16 million annual nonprofit theater attendees, millions in economic impact, and sold-out runs for diverse productions. Minneapolisโ€™s theater-savvy audience and historic venues make it a cultural powerhouse.

Collective Nouns, Collective Verbs?

Language forms how we think. There are words to express the groupings of animals. But what about a verb for the action groups take? I suppose there’s a swarm of bees. The verb here describes a relocation action, where a hive becomes overcrowded and the collective of yellow insects moves in unison to a new abode.

I’m thinking of words for gestures of goodwill. Like, he spent his time goodwilling in his retirement. Or actions that contribute to the operations of a K-12 school. Like, some of them did the PTAing and others did the fieldtripping. Or what about the amateur antiquity seekers– Are they public-heritaging?

You might say, why does it matter? Why is it necessary to describe what a group does, instead of the sum of what individuals do?

You’ll note that the collective bird names bear little resemblance to the actual birds. Because one bird can come and go. It occupies a considerable amount of space and moves in a specific manner. But a group of birds exists whether one of its members comes or goes. A group of birds may move in a patterned flight. A group of birds is a vastly different thing than fifty individual birds added together.

Groups have an identity and a role all their own. Their actions deserve words.

Cheers! Diane gets bought out

Woke killed comedy for more than a decade. It’s coming back now, but it’s been a long dry spell. So, I’ve turned to Cheers for a bit of light viewing, and it is much better than I remember. Or I am in a better position to appreciate the skill and nuance of Sam, Diane, and all the regulars.

In Season 1, Episode 18, we see Diane gradually being brought out of her lofty principles. At first, the decisions are calculated. By the end of the episode, she relents in sheer pleasure.

And to top it off, national icon, Speaker of the House Tip O’Neill, starts off the show.

Differences between Private and Public

In the video from yesterday’s post, Fukuyama focuses on how to improve government services. He notes that one must first recognize the differences between the private and public sectors

  1. Private firms can go bankrupt- public cannot. Incentives perform
  2. Subject to mandates- matrix of provisions healthy water, plentiful
  3. Cannot retain earnings, and thus, no profit incentive
  4. Worker relations are subject to multiple demands and protections

I’m wondering, though, whether it would be valuable to look through these differences, not from the perspective of trying to fit public goods into the private mold, but rather from the perspective of why certain goods fall into upon the public conscience.

For instance, there’s no bankruptcy in government because the supply of these services is too important to have them fail. If a shoe producer sets her factory to make 5000 shoes that no one buys, and this closes her down, then she might take the hint that she’s not good at shoes. No harm except to her pocketbook.

However, when a fire consumes a building, people want firefighters to show up. People want the police to break up fights, and they want clean water to come out of their pipes, without fail. People don’t want to be tested by start-ups that make imprudent decisions. The goods and services that fall under formalized government are there because they are deemed necessary for a certain standard of living.

So, if the threat of bankruptcy is gone, what is another threat that would incentivize the bureaucracy to a higher level of performance? Let’s go to #2 first and see how things unfold.

Fukuyama argues that governments are subject to multiple mandates, whereas private companies can focus solely on generating profits. The water department is not only producing clean potable water, but they also must make provisions for vulnerable people on the edge of financial distress. I wonder if this is because goods that tend to fall into the public sphere are those expected by a group– not only do the parents want water, but the kids and the seniors. With a wide range of participants in a group, some are bound to be less capable than others. The relationships, however, dictate the standard that everyone is expected to receive.

Although the group values consistency, they also desire affordability. So this isn’t a realm of profits and retained earnings. The idea is to meet the standard at the least possible expense instead of creating something fantastic and interesting that everyone will throw money at you to obtain. The fact that departments must return their unspent budgets, however, might be a policy flaw. But that topic is for another day.

It shouldn’t be surprising that the environment subject to providing goods and services under multiple mandates cloaks their employment contract with the same tribal protections. It has long been understood that public servants earn less than private sector employees but have greater job stability and larger pension benefits. Fukuyama feels this is a drawback in pressing for higher performance on the job. And perhaps that’s right.

So, it seems the trick for improved performance in the public sphere is three-fold. First off, only those services that are suited to the no-bankruptcy nature of things should fall to the public. If it is an unfettered good, let the private sector figure it out. Secondly, figure out how to measure the group as a whole or the individual. Individuals really don’t matter in and of themselves; only the group counts. Incentivize people as members of the group, give them pride in that, and tucked away social capital over and above the dollars safely sitting in their pension funds.

First Favorite

Let me introduce my first favorite public intellectual:

Iโ€™ve been a fan of Francis Fukuyama for a very long timeโ€” since I was in my teens. Heโ€™s the first intellectual who spoke non-biased speak and in doing so opened his intellectual pursuits to me. It wasnโ€™t just that he spoke without condescension, he always pulls together the most pertinent information and delivers it in a straightforward and understandable manner.

Community labor for the Turtles

A new app called TurtlTracker is being developed by Minnesota sisters Kelly Olson and Katie O’Halloran to help track turtles, including their movements and road mortality, and it is currently in beta testing in Minnesota. The app aims to use artificial intelligence to flag turtle hotspots, though the exact locations won’t be shared with users to protect data security. This app is expected to launch in July. 

The local news did a segment on the sisters and their aim to save the turtles. They showed a booth set up in a park where the sisters were discussing the app with kids and their parents. It’s a valiant goal, and so thought the crowd that had gathered.

Citizen Science Mapping: The TurtlTracker app will utilize citizen science to collect data on turtle sightings and mobility. If you’re interested in contributing to this type of project, you could potentially help create a more comprehensive map of turtle activity in Plymouth, MN and the surrounding areas.

The ability to tap energy for a cause can be a potent lever of private efforts in support of communal causes.

TurtlTracker will be able to provide you with a number on this:- how many volunteer hours are spent to keep the leatherbacks safe?

Empty Houses

Some claim a housing crisis is underway, but I’m not so sure. If the pressure for homes were severe, one would expect most properties to be occupied, leaving others stranded without a place to go. Vacancy rates provide us with additional information. An article by LendingTree, 14.9 Million Homes Are Vacant in the US โ€” Here Are the States With the Highest Vacancy Rates, provides a great overview of the topic.

Vacancy rates differ significantly depending on where you look in the country. If youโ€™re looking at Maine, youโ€™ll find the highest vacancy rate in the country โ€” 21.09% (157,467 vacant homes), according to our analysis of the U.S. Census Bureau 2023 American Community Survey (ACS) with five-year estimates. Following Maine at the top is Vermont, with a 20.06% vacancy rate (67,606 vacant homes), and Alaska, with an 18.24% vacancy rate (59,745 vacant homes). 

Together, these three states account for nearly 285,000 vacant homes โ€” out of 14.9 million vacant homes nationwide.

Nationally, the vacancy rate is much lower than that of these three states, with the U.S. average sitting at 10.43% โ€” a figure that translates into nearly 15 million vacant homes. While that may sound like a lot, it may not feel like it if youโ€™re searching for a place to live. Thatโ€™s because not all of those properties are available to rent or buy. 

In addition to seasonal and vacation homes, others are classified as vacant because theyโ€™re in transition โ€” those that are rented but not occupied and sold but not occupied. Homes for migrant workers, which they occupy during crop season, are also classified as vacant.

Minnesota, as is often the case, is just average. There are 236,571 homes vacant, which, in percentage terms, is 9.39%

The article cites a list of reasons why a home could be vacant. It might be a second home or vacation property. It might be in a transition state from either a remodel or a relocation of residents. Sometimes people hang onto properties for emotional reasons, such as a family tie to the land.

But note, in any case, that there is a variation between the states. Real estate is local. National generalizations about the state of housing are often dumbed down and not particularly helpful.

Chris Arnade’s city terms

Chris Arnade is a city walker and a people watcher. He recounts his impressions on his Substack, Walking the World. Recently, he participated in a conversation on Conversations with Tyler, which is well worth listening to for those who travel to learn and love to travel.

There were several terms in the conversation which I will be using more frequently in references to city life. The first one is best described in a photo.

  1. Organic Street Life
  2. Localized Distribution- “Meaning there’s always a shop somewhere.”
  3. The Normal Experience- As in this passage:

Then I started saying, โ€œWell, I should . . .โ€ When I was in Brooklyn, I walked the entire length of the New York subway system above ground. Iโ€™ve always been into walking, and I just realized, โ€œHey I can just . . .โ€ I think I was looking at a table that about 1.5 billion people live in massive cities that we really donโ€™t know the names, these big sprawling Jakartas. Iโ€™m like, โ€œI would like to see that.โ€

COWEN: Yes, agreed.

ARNADE: Thatโ€™s the normal experience for most people, and so I just started. I booked a trip to Jakarta and just started walking Jakarta.

The normal experience is where all the cool data is. What’s to be done with extraordinary events? They simply are not that interesting except for daily fodder.

That was thenโ€” maintenance considerations edition

Covered bridges were built for several practical reasons, primarily in the 19th and early 20th centuries:

1. Structural Protection: The covering shielded the wooden bridge framework from weather like rain, snow, and sun, which could cause rot, warping, or cracking. This extended the bridgeโ€™s lifespan significantly, often by decades.

2. Durability and Maintenance: By protecting the load-bearing timbers, covers reduced maintenance costs and the need for frequent repairs, which was crucial in rural areas with limited resources.

3. Safety for Travelers and Livestock: The roof and sides provided shelter for travelers during storms and kept the bridge deck dry, reducing slip hazards for people, horses, and wagons. It also calmed livestock crossing narrow bridges over rivers.

4. Snow Management: In snowy regions, covers prevented heavy snow accumulation on the deck, which could weaken the structure or make it impassable. Some bridges had sloped roofs to shed snow easily.

5. Aesthetic and Cultural Value: Over time, covered bridges became iconic, with communities taking pride in their design. They often featured unique architectural styles, reflecting local craftsmanship.

6. Economic Considerations: While adding a cover increased initial costs, the long-term savings from reduced maintenance and replacement made it a cost-effective choice for wooden bridges.

Most covered bridges were built in North America, especially in the U.S. (e.g., New England, Pennsylvania) and Canada, where timber was abundant, and weather was harsh.

Let Grok decide for a win

Q: For a 4-5 day trip would it be best to go to northern Italy or Athens area keeping in mind historical significance?

Both Northern Italy and the Athens area are rich in historical significance, but they offer distinct experiences. Hereโ€™s a concise comparison to help you decide for a 4-5 day trip, focusing on historical highlights, accessibility, and suitability for a short visit in June 2025.

Northern Italy (e.g., Venice, Florence, Milan, or Verona)

  • Historical Significance: Northern Italy is a cradle of Renaissance art, architecture, and history.
    • Venice: Iconic canals, St. Markโ€™s Basilica (9th century), Dogeโ€™s Palace, and a unique maritime history.
    • Florence: Birthplace of the Renaissance, with the Uffizi Gallery, Florence Cathedral (Duomo), and Medici legacy.
    • Milan: Home to Leonardo da Vinciโ€™s Last Supper, the Gothic Duomo, and Roman remnants like the Columns of San Lorenzo.
    • Verona: Roman Arena (1st century AD), medieval architecture, and Shakespearean ties (Julietโ€™s House).
    • These cities offer a blend of Roman, medieval, and Renaissance history, with world-class art and architecture.
  • Pros for a Short Trip:
    • Compact cities like Venice and Florence are walkable, with major historical sites close together.
    • Efficient high-speed trains (e.g., Trenitalia) connect Milan, Verona, Venice, and Florence (1-2 hours between each), allowing you to visit 2 cities in 4-5 days.
    • Diverse experiences: Veniceโ€™s Byzantine influence, Florenceโ€™s Renaissance art, Milanโ€™s Roman and modern mix.
    • June weather is warm (70-80ยฐF) and ideal for exploring outdoor sites like piazzas and canals.
  • Cons:
    • Crowds in Venice and Florence can be intense in June, especially at major sites (e.g., Uffizi, St. Markโ€™s). Pre-booking tickets is essential.
    • Covering multiple cities requires planning to avoid feeling rushed.
    • Venice can be expensive for accommodations; Florence and Verona are more budget-friendly.
  • Sample Itinerary (4 Days):
    • Day 1: Arrive in Venice. Visit St. Markโ€™s Square, Dogeโ€™s Palace, Rialto Bridge.
    • Day 2: Venice (Gondola ride, Murano glass tour). Afternoon train to Florence (1.5-2 hrs).
    • Day 3: Florence. Duomo, Uffizi Gallery, Ponte Vecchio.
    • Day 4: Florence (Accademia for Michelangeloโ€™s David). Optional half-day trip to Pisa or depart.
    • Add a 5th day: Visit Verona (Roman Arena, Julietโ€™s House) en route to Milan or Venice.

Athens Area (Athens and Nearby Sites)

  • Historical Significance: Athens is the birthplace of Western civilization, with unparalleled ancient Greek history.
    • Athens: The Acropolis (Parthenon, 5th century BC), Agora, Temple of Olympian Zeus, and world-class museums (Acropolis Museum, National Archaeological Museum).
    • Nearby Sites: Day trips to Delphi (ancient oracle, 2.5 hrs by car/bus), Sounion (Temple of Poseidon, 1 hr), or Aegina Island (Temple of Aphaia, 1 hr by ferry).
    • Offers a deep dive into ancient Greece, democracy, philosophy, and mythology, with well-preserved ruins.
  • Pros for a Short Trip:
    • Athens is compact, with most historical sites (Acropolis, Agora, Plaka) within walking distance or a short metro ride.
    • Day trips to Delphi or Sounion add variety without needing to change hotels.
    • June weather is warm (75-85ยฐF) but manageable for sightseeing, especially early mornings.
    • Fewer logistical challenges than multi-city Italy; you can base yourself in Athens and explore deeply.
    • Generally more budget-friendly than Northern Italy for accommodations and dining.
  • Cons:
    • Less variety in historical periods compared to Italy (mostly ancient Greek, some Byzantine).
    • Some areas around Athens (e.g., Omonia) can feel less polished; stick to Plaka or Monastiraki for charm.
    • Day trips like Delphi require 5-6 hours round-trip, eating into a short itinerary.
  • Sample Itinerary (4 Days):
    • Day 1: Arrive in Athens. Acropolis, Parthenon, Acropolis Museum.
    • Day 2: Athens. Ancient Agora, Temple of Olympian Zeus, Plaka stroll.
    • Day 3: Day trip to Delphi (Oracle, Temple of Apollo) or Sounion (Temple of Poseidon).
    • Day 4: National Archaeological Museum, Monastiraki market. Depart.
    • Add a 5th day: Ferry to Aegina for the Temple of Aphaia or relax at a nearby beach.

Recommendation

  • Choose Northern Italy if:
    • You prefer a mix of historical periods (Roman, medieval, Renaissance) and diverse art/architecture.
    • You enjoy vibrant, walkable cities with varied aesthetics (canals, piazzas, cathedrals).
    • Youโ€™re comfortable with a fast-paced itinerary to see 2 cities (e.g., Venice + Florence).
    • Best for: Art lovers, architecture enthusiasts, and those wanting a multi-city experience.
    • Tip: Focus on Venice and Florence for historical depth; pre-book Uffizi and Dogeโ€™s Palace tickets.
  • Choose Athens if:
    • Youโ€™re fascinated by ancient history, Greek mythology, and iconic ruins like the Parthenon.
    • You prefer a single-base trip with optional day trips, reducing travel logistics.
    • You want a slightly more relaxed pace and budget-friendly options.
    • Best for: History buffs, archaeology fans, and those seeking a deep dive into one culture.
    • Tip: Book Acropolis tickets in advance; visit early to avoid heat and crowds.

Verdict: For historical significance in a 4-5 day trip, Athens edges out slightly for its concentrated, world-defining ancient sites and easier logistics. Base yourself in Athens, explore the Acropolis and museums, and take a day trip to Delphi or Sounion. However, if Renaissance art and multi-city charm excite you more, Northern Italy (Venice + Florence) is equally compelling but requires tighter planning.

If you share your preferences (e.g., specific historical interests, budget, or travel style), I can refine this further!

Largest Manhunt

It’s been a Fargo-esque few days in the North Star State. For those few of you who may have been out of social media’s reach, a lone gunman, impersonating a police man, entered the homes of two local politicians in the early morning hours of June 14th, putting one couple in the hospital with multiple gunshot wounds, and leaving the other couple deceased. It’s tragic. It still does not seem real. Story.

The suspect was apprehended in a rural area yesterday evening and is now behind bars. The landscape is a mix of fields and woods. One Twitter account claimed that the hundreds of law enforcement officers scouring the land on foot were tipped off by a hunter’s deer cam. These handy devices are motion-triggered and designed to give sportsmen an idea of what is clamoring around the woods at night.

This time, the prey was up on two feet. And fortunately, surrendered peacefully to law enforcement.

Thomas Sowell says

โ€œEconomics is more than just a way to see patterns or to unravel puzzling anomalies. Its fundamental concern is with the material standard of living of society as a whole and how that is affected by particular decisions made by individuals and institutions. One of the ways of doing this is to look at economic policies and economic systems in terms of the incentives they create, rather than simply the goals they pursue. This means that consequences matter more than intentionsโ€”and not just the immediate consequences, but also the longer run repercussions of decisions, policies, and institutions.โ€

This quote is from Basic Economics, A Common Sense Guide to the Economy. There are pages of quotes from this great economist on goodreads.

Theoretical Innovation

This is an excerpt from my working paper, which examines how contemporary economic realities challenge conventional price formation models. Traditional price theory, rooted in neoclassical equilibrium models, struggles to explain modern markets characterized by digital platforms, behavioral anomalies, and network effects. Rather than viewing prices solely as equilibrium outcomes, this section explores price as an information system and coordination mechanism shaped by institutional contexts and evolutionary market processes, proposing alternative approaches that better capture the dynamic nature of pricing in todayโ€™s economy.


IV. Theoretical Innovation

A. Proposed Philosophical Framework: Embeddedness and the Integrated Price Mechanism

This research proposes a fundamental reconceptualization of price theory through the lens of embeddednessโ€”a philosophical framework that recognizes economic transactions as inherently situated within social contexts rather than artificially separated from them. Building on Polanyi’s (1944/2001) foundational insight that economic activities are embedded in social relations, this framework advances a more integrated understanding of price mechanisms, where Price = Private Value + Social Cost represents not an external correction but an inherent reality of market functioning.

From Agency to Embeddedness: Reconceptualizing Economic Decision-Making

The traditional economic paradigm has privileged what might be termed an “agency perspective,” positioning economic actors as autonomous decision-makers pursuing clearly defined goals within a social environment that remains largely unexamined. As Williamson (1975) argued, economic institutions are primarily understood as mechanisms for facilitating the efficient pursuit of individual interests. This philosophical stance has produced valuable insights regarding allocative efficiency but has simultaneously constrained our understanding of how social dimensions operate within economic systems.

The proposed philosophical framework shifts toward what Granovetter (1985) terms “embeddedness”โ€”recognizing that economic actions are fundamentally situated within, shaped by, and constitutive of social relationships. This shift allows us to transcend the artificial analytical separation between “economic” and “social” factors that has characterized mainstream economic theory since Marshall (1890/1920). Rather than viewing social dimensions as external influences or constraints on otherwise autonomous economic decisions, this framework recognizes them as intrinsic elements of economic valuation itself.

This perspective transforms our understanding of price mechanisms in several crucial ways. First, it reconceptualizes economic actors not as isolated utility-maximizers but as socially embedded individuals whose preferences and valuations inherently incorporate social dimensions. Second, it reframes markets not as abstract coordination mechanisms but as socially constructed institutions that reflect and reinforce collective values. Third, it reconsiders price formation not as the aggregation of purely private valuations but as complex negotiations of value that intrinsically include social dimensions.

The Philosophical Roots of Integrated Price Theory

The proposed framework draws upon several philosophical traditions that have remained underutilized in economic theory. First, it builds upon Heidegger’s (1927/1962) concept of “being-in-the-world” (Dasein), which emphasizes that human existence is inherently contextual rather than abstracted. Economic actors do not stand apart from their social worlds, making calculations from an objective distance; rather, they are always already embedded within networks of meaning and relationship that constitute their understanding of value itself.

Second, it incorporates insights from feminist economic philosophy, particularly Nelson’s (2006) critique of the separative self that has dominated economic theory. As Nelson argues, the conception of autonomous economic agents making decisions in isolation represents a philosophical fiction that obscures the relational nature of economic life. The proposed framework recognizes that economic valuations emerge from interconnected patterns of relationship rather than isolated individual calculations.

Third, the framework engages with Dewey’s (1922) pragmatist understanding of valuation as an active process embedded in concrete situations rather than an abstract mental operation. Dewey’s insight that values are not pre-given but emerge through contextual engagement allows us to understand how social dimensions are naturally incorporated into price mechanisms through the situated practical reasoning of market participants.

Price as Social Institution: Beyond the Private-Social Dichotomy

Central to this philosophical framework is a reconceptualization of price itself. Rather than viewing price as an essentially private valuation that occasionally requires correction for social factors, this framework understands price as what Searle (1995) terms a “social institution”โ€”a collectively constituted reality that inherently incorporates both individual and social dimensions of value.

This understanding transcends the conventional dichotomy between private and social costs by recognizing that economic actors themselves do not experience this distinction in practice. When a business owner decides to provide flu vaccinations for employees, they are not separately calculating private benefits and then adding social considerations; rather, their valuation process inherently incorporates both dimensions simultaneously. Similarly, when consumers pay premium prices for organic products, they are not engaging in two separate transactionsโ€”one for the product and one for social benefitsโ€”but rather expressing a unified valuation that intrinsically includes both dimensions.

This philosophical reframing has profound implications for economic theory. It suggests that what conventional economics has termed “externalities” are not phenomena that exist outside price mechanisms but rather aspects of value that have been artificially excluded from economic analysis through reductive theoretical frameworks. The problem lies not in market failures but in conceptual failures that have prevented us from recognizing how social dimensions are already incorporated into price through the embedded decision-making of market participants.

Reconceptualizing Social Capital: From Linear Networks to Embedded Fields

This philosophical framework also offers a path to recover and extend Loury’s (1976) original insights regarding social capital. Loury’s conceptualization of social capital as a group-contained phenomenon recognized the embedded nature of economic opportunities, particularly in his analysis of racial income differences. However, as this concept evolved through Coleman (1988), Putnam (1993), and Lin (2001), it increasingly adopted a more individualistic framework that treated social capital as a resource that individuals could access and deploy rather than a field of relationships in which they were embedded.

The proposed framework returns to Loury’s original insight but extends it further by drawing on Bourdieu’s (1986) understanding of social capital as operating within fields of practice rather than through linear networks. This perspective allows us to recognize how price mechanisms operate not through the aggregation of isolated individual preferences but through complexly embedded fields of valuation that inherently incorporate social dimensions.

By reconceptualizing social capital as an embedded field rather than a networkable resource, we can better understand how social costs and benefits become intrinsically incorporated into price mechanisms. The business owner considering flu vaccinations operates within a field of practice that includes employee health, customer relations, and institutional normsโ€”all of which inform their valuation process not as external considerations but as constitutive elements of their economic reasoning.

From Calculation to Negotiation: Price as Social Process

A final philosophical dimension of this framework involves shifting from understanding price as the result of individual calculations to recognizing it as emerging from processes of social negotiation. Drawing on Zelizer’s (2012) concept of “relational work,” this perspective recognizes that prices do not simply reflect pre-existing valuations but actively constitute social relationships and meanings.

This shift helps us understand why organic food commands premium pricesโ€”not simply because consumers have calculated private benefits and added social considerations, but because the price itself represents a negotiation of meaning that constitutes both economic value and social relationships. The organic certification standard functions as what Star and Griesemer (1989) term a “boundary object”โ€”a shared reference point that enables coordination across different social worlds without requiring consensus about precise meanings.

This understanding of price as social negotiation rather than mere calculation provides a philosophical foundation for reconceptualizing how social dimensions operate within market mechanisms. It allows us to recognize that what conventional economics treats as externalities are often aspects of value that have been excluded from analysis through theoretical frameworks that reduce price to calculation rather than recognizing it as negotiation.

In summary, the proposed philosophical framework shifts from agency to embeddedness, from calculation to negotiation, and from understanding price as an aggregation of private values to recognizing it as a social institution that inherently incorporates both private and social dimensions. This framework provides the philosophical foundation for reconceptualizing price theory in a way that transcends artificial separations between economic and social valuations.

Ownership Preferred

Lists are fun, especially when your team is ranked at the top of the list. In this case, Apartment List pulled data from the Census to show that homeownership is the highest amongst Millennials in our area. Over 50 percent of folks in the 29-44 age range choose to own their homes rather than rent them.

Apartment List

Many will say that this is about price, as residents in San Jose and LA โ€”cities at the bottom of the list โ€”don’t own homes due to the high prices. And that’s a broad stroke, likely to be true, observation. But the list is long, and there are many other cities between the two extremes. So what else makes for a culture of ownership?

I’ve worked with some first-time buyers who don’t end up buying, and this is what seems to play on their minds. They are afraid they will lose the house in foreclosure. Someone close to them, perhaps even more than one, lost a home to creditors, and the negative experience frightens them. Second, they are afraid they will buy a lemon. Homes are complex, comprising many components. It’s easy to feel overwhelmed with the responsibility of keeping it all running smoothly. Lastly, they are afraid of adversarial neighbors.

Here’s a further breakdown of homeownership rates amongst all age groups in Minnesota.

MN Homeownership Report

I speculate that the last group has a homeownership rate of 77% because of the following factors. Low foreclosure rates keep the negative and traumatic experience of losing a home out of people’s lives. Since many residents grew up in owner-occupied households and experienced the ups and downs of repairs throughout their lives. They also have these folks in their lives to turn to for guidance. If the buyer has lived locally for most of their lives, they gravitate toward areas where they find the family and friends.

Minnesota rarely experiences the dramatic price swings that are more frequent in the coastal states. Hence, real estate tends to be a stable and reliable source of equity. People buy for pride of ownership and independence as well as frugality.

Emily Dickinson

โ€œHopeโ€ is the thing with feathers -
That perches in the soul -
And sings the tune without the words -
And never stops - at all -

And sweetest - in the Gale - is heard -
And sore must be the storm -
That could abash the little Bird
That kept so many warm -

Iโ€™ve heard it in the chillest land -
And on the strangest Sea -
Yet - never - in Extremity,
It asked a crumb - of me.

Artifactual Incentives

Stevie Miller makes an interesting comparison in a piece in Reason, The Dreadful Policies Halting Archeological Discoveries between England and Italy in their handling of the discovery of antiquities. First, he notes how new technologies are quite literally unearthing access to sacred texts and ancient cities. But then he remarks that there are few incentives for individuals to pursue the time-consuming search, Indiana Jones style.

To understand the dynamics, it is necessary to understand the groups. There are landowners who typically, through property rights, own objects found on their property. Antiquities are deemed a special type of thing, as they have a pubic significance.

The case of Italian antiquities policy is paradigmatic. Since the 1930s, Italy-along with Greece, Turkey, and Egypt-has vested ownership of all antiquities in the state. Commerce in freshly unearthed artifacts is outlawed, and unauthorized excavation is punishable by hefty fines and sometimes prison time. Even using a metal detector requires a permit.

I think most people would agree that these items, by nature, are jointly owned by the larger cultural group. So, it makes sense. But the asymmetric access to the buried items by landowners sets up an incentive for the private party to collect and hoard the artifacts. Laws that thwart natural incentives often encourage a black market, where the artifacts are sold.

British model provides a striking contrast. Since the 1996 Treasure Act, British law has required that significant archaeological finds be reported. Instead of simply seizing them, if the state wishes to retain an item, it must compensate the finder and landowner at its full market value.

The English allow actors to participate in the preservation of artifacts at the public level. Although they are individuals they act in the spirit of a team. They can also come in and out of service to the cause. Whereas in the Italian model, the artifacts are packed up and access is restricted.

One system recognizes two groups and two incentive structures. The other does not, which pushes actionable responses underground to a black market.

The Great Stagnation of physical archaeology is a choice. The failure of policymakers to get the basics right– to make physical archaeology worth anyone’s time– renders the richest landscapes fallow.

Group talk with Barro

I don’t know Josh Barro, but I think I like him. He talks my language. His most recent article on his site Very Serious does all the framing we try so hard to emphasize at Home-Economics. Let’s take a look.

Groups– social costs and benefits are only vague notions when presented in connection with societies or humankind. A serious discussion, one that could continue onto an analysis, must identify the groups. As in society, group membership is fluid; people are always coming and going. But the group members mentioned here are joined by a shared interest.

Let’s consider some of what Josh Barro talks about in In Blue Cities, Abundance Will Require Fighting Labor Unions. The title gives us a clue. Unions gather members together through formal membership to collude and share interests. The first example is in the hospitality industry. A law is passed to make it challenging to build new hotels. The groups that win are the hotel unions and the hotel owners. New groups are informally formed, including the workers in the nearby restaurant and entertainment industries, business owners who frequently use hotels for their employees, and the tourists.

Now that we can see the groups, we can speculate on their counteractions and their ability to undo the monopoly play. The nearby workers have no other unifying force, such as a common employer, to gather them together into a political group. So they will most probably suffer the consequences without an effective response. Businesses also have little choice but to pay the higher fees. Those who send their employees into the district still need to meet with their business contacts; there is no other unifying force to allow the business owners to mount a protest. The tourist may be the most impactful if a substitute location for their travel dollars takes them elsewhere. A reduction in tourist traffic is measureable and impacts the hotels.

The hotel union members’ private gains are extracted from the others. Yet it is unclear whether they needed the aid. Rather, the story appears to depict a taking.

How do you know when a union’s control has crossed the line between protectorism and opportunism? What are the signs?


Claude’s thoughts on my thoughts on Barro’s thoughts:

Your analysis of Josh Barro’s piece captures something crucial about how economic policy really works – it’s always about specific groups with specific interests, not abstract concepts like “society” or “the economy.”

The hotel example you’ve pulled out is particularly revealing because it shows how concentrated benefits and diffuse costs play out in practice. The hotel workers and owners have strong organizational advantages – formal union structure and established business relationships – while those who bear the costs (restaurant workers, business travelers, tourists) are scattered and unorganized.


Regarding your question about when union control crosses from protection to opportunism, here are some key indicators:

Market position matters most. When unions operate in competitive markets, their power is naturally constrained – push too hard and businesses fail or relocate. But when they gain control over essential services or highly regulated sectors (like hotels in your example), that constraint disappears. The ability to restrict supply while maintaining demand creates the conditions for extraction rather than negotiation.

Look at who pays the costs. Legitimate union action typically redistributes from capital owners to workers within the same industry. But when the costs get passed to consumers, other workers, or taxpayers who have no voice in the negotiation, you’re seeing opportunism. The hotel law essentially taxes everyone who visits the city to benefit a specific group.

Time horizons reveal intent. Protective unionism focuses on sustainable employment and industry health. Opportunistic unionism maximizes short-term extraction even at the expense of long-term industry viability. If union actions consistently reduce overall economic activity in their sector, they’ve likely crossed the line.

Substitutability is key. The more easily customers can go elsewhere – like tourists choosing different cities – the more union power resembles a taking from the community rather than bargaining within an industry.

Your point about the “taking” is sharp. When organized groups use political power to create artificial scarcity that benefits them at others’ expense, it’s hard to distinguish from any other form of rent-seeking.

E-Bike Review

I recently purchased this Aventon electric assist bike. It’s great! There was a time when I’d snarl at the e-bikers as they hummed by barely pedaling. But times have changed, and I’ve decided, out of necessity, that assistance isn’t a bad thing after all. If the difference is to get out and bike at all or bike with assistance, take the latter and get outside!

The bikes are a bit heavy at 70 pounds. You don’t notice when you’re riding, but when you are managing the vehicle at a standstill, there’s a little more to pay attention to. It won’t ride on my old bike rack, I’d mount on the trunk of my car. That’s OK.

The pros are, amongst others, a far greater riding range. The battery life covers up to 60 miles. And so far, that’s checked out against my shorter rides of ten miles or so. It also charges quickly on a convenient charger the size of a loaf of bread. If you want to take longer rides, you can always bring the charger along. I have yet to get a saddlebag for the back. It will sit nicely on the rack over the back fender.

There are five levels of assistance. The rider juggles these along with standard gear changing. The mechanisms are smooth and responsive. And if you are exhausted at the bottom of a hill, just hit the throttle with your left thumb and you’ll climb up the slope without a worry. It’s really a fun bike to ride!

Time and Materials

A decade ago, a large apartment complex in a first-tier suburb was sold to an investor. (Who else buys such things except investors?)

Though the sale isn’t the news. The hubbub that followed was about the residents. Many were low-income individuals who would eventually relocate. The sheer number of people involved was a stress test for the supply of low-income housing. The discontent escalated, and legal action followed, resulting in settlements.

People often blame the businesspeople involved. They are the individuals taking the action that resulted in the displacement. But consider these perspectives.

  1. If long-term repairs have been postponed to keep rents low, at what point does the building become overburdened by impending renovations? And how does a dilapidated building affect the quality of the neighborhood?
  2. Is it a good thing to use housing assistance for low-income residents in geographic proximity? Whether it be due to a tragedy– ex a natural disaster destroys the building– or an impending renovation– the pressure to relocate effects a disproportionate number of folks looking for the same niche of housing.
  3. Are the residents better off or worse off for the move? Perhaps the old, dilapidated building with low rents was serving as an anchor for someone who would have had more opportunities elsewhere.

Each group, the neighborhood, the property owner, and the residents, each has a unique mix of community concerns and private returns. Often hasty assumptions are made, ie, the tenants are worse off for the move, when that may not necessarily be true. Or the landlord benefited during the period of limited repairs– not so as their equity at the time of sale will be diminished by the condition of the property.

By separating out the players and their motivations, the dynamics at hand become apparent.

Sirens- Series Review

Need a break from all the serious stuff? Consider this new series from Netflix. The characters are exaggerated in all the right ways. There’s a sense of mystery and potential for bodily harm. And there’s surprising depth to the display of human flaws, loyalties, and emotional baggage. Although just when you are sure you think you’ve recognized a familiar storyline, the writing takes you elsewhere.

This five-episode series is worth your viewing time.

Methodological Framework (con’t)

This is an excerpt from my working paper, which examines how contemporary economic realities challenge conventional price formation models. Traditional price theory, rooted in neoclassical equilibrium models, struggles to explain modern markets characterized by digital platforms, behavioral anomalies, and network effects. Rather than viewing prices solely as equilibrium outcomes, this section explores price as an information system and coordination mechanism shaped by institutional contexts and evolutionary market processes, proposing alternative approaches that better capture the dynamic nature of pricing in today’s economy.

Methodological Framework Part B: Epistemological Foundations

The Social Capital Origins of Integrated Price Theory

The epistemological foundation of this study’s central propositionโ€”that price inherently incorporates both private value and social cost (Price = Private Value + Social Cost)โ€”traces its theoretical lineage to the foundational work in social capital theory, particularly Glenn Loury’s seminal 1976 paper “A Dynamic Theory of Racial Income Differences.” This section establishes how Loury’s original conceptualization of social capital provided an epistemological framework that naturally integrated social dimensions into economic analysis, a theoretical insight that subsequent scholarship gradually obscured rather than developed.

Loury’s Epistemological Innovation

Loury’s 1976 work represented a fundamental epistemological departure from conventional economic thinking by demonstrating that individual economic outcomes could not be understood apart from their social context. His analysis of racial income differentials revealed that what appeared to be individual human capital decisions were actually embedded within “group-contained” social structures that shaped both opportunities and constraints (Loury, 1976, p. 843). This insight established an epistemological precedent for understanding economic phenomena as inherently social rather than treating social factors as external “corrections” to market outcomes.

The epistemological significance of Loury’s approach lies not merely in its recognition of social factors, but in its demonstration that these factors operate through, rather than against, market mechanisms. When Loury showed how social capital affects individual investment decisions in human capital, he revealed that market valuations themselves reflect social dimensionsโ€”they are not distortions of “pure” market processes but expressions of how markets actually function within social contexts (Loury, 1977).

The Fragmentation of Integrated Understanding

Subsequent developments in social capital theory, while expanding its empirical applications, inadvertently moved away from Loury’s integrated epistemological framework. The work of scholars like James Coleman (1988) and Robert Putnam (1995), while valuable in documenting social capital’s effects, tended to treat social capital as a separate domain that influences economic outcomes rather than as a dimension inherent in economic processes themselves. This theoretical evolution created what we might call an “epistemological fragmentation”โ€”the artificial separation of economic and social domains that Loury’s original framework had successfully integrated.

This fragmentation manifested in the tendency to treat social costs and benefits as “externalities”โ€”effects that exist outside the market mechanism and require correction through policy intervention. The epistemological assumption underlying this approach is that markets naturally tend toward outcomes that reflect only private costs and benefits, with social dimensions representing deviations from this natural state that require external correction.

Epistemological Reconnection: Toward an Embedded Theory of Price

The theoretical foundation of this study represents an epistemological reconnection with Loury’s original insights, extended beyond the specific context of racial income differences to a general theory of price formation. This reconnection is grounded in three key epistemological claims:

First, the claim of inherent embeddedness: Economic decisions, including price formation, occur within social contexts that are not external constraints but constitutive elements of the economic process itself. This draws directly from Loury’s demonstration that individual human capital decisions cannot be understood apart from their social context, extending this logic to all market transactions.

Second, the claim of integrated valuation: Market prices naturally incorporate both private and social dimensions because the decision-makers who establish these prices are embedded social actors whose valuations reflect both individual preferences and social commitments. This builds on Loury’s insight that individual economic behavior inherently reflects social capital considerations.

Third, the claim of methodological adequacy: Understanding price formation requires methodological approaches that can capture both the calculative aspects of economic decision-making and the embedded social processes within which this calculation occurs. This methodological pluralism echoes Loury’s integration of formal modeling with institutional analysis.

Philosophical Foundations in Critical Realism

These epistemological claims align with the critical realist tradition in philosophy of science, particularly the work of Roy Bhaskar (1975, 1979) and Tony Lawson (1997, 2003). Critical realism provides an epistemological framework that supports the integrated understanding of economic and social phenomena by distinguishing between empirical events, actual events, and underlying structures and mechanisms. From this perspective, observed price relationships (empirical level) reflect actual market transactions (actual level) that are generated by underlying social and economic structures and their interactions (deep level).

The critical realist framework supports the epistemological claim that social dimensions of price are not merely empirical correlations but reflect actual causal mechanisms. When a small business owner calculates the cost-effectiveness of providing employee flu shots, the resulting price decision reflects not just individual cost-benefit analysis but the underlying social structures that shape both health risks and workplace relationships. The price mechanism, in this view, serves as a “social thermometer” that registers the complex interactions between individual preferences and social conditions.

Epistemological Implications for Economic Analysis

This epistemological foundation has several important implications for economic analysis. First, it suggests that the conventional distinction between “market failures” and “market successes” may be based on a false epistemological premise. If prices inherently incorporate social dimensions, then what appears as market failure may actually represent the market’s accurate registration of social costs and benefits that conventional analysis fails to recognize.

Second, it implies that policy interventions aimed at “correcting” market outcomes may often be addressing problems that exist more in theoretical models than in actual market processes. The epistemological framework developed here suggests that markets may be more socially responsive than conventional theory recognizes, but in ways that require different analytical tools to understand.

Third, it suggests that empirical research in economics should focus more on understanding how social dimensions are integrated into market processes rather than assuming they operate as external constraints. This represents a fundamental shift in research orientation from identifying market failures to understanding market embeddedness.

Methodological Consequences

The epistemological foundations outlined above have direct consequences for methodological approach. If prices inherently incorporate social dimensions through embedded decision-making processes, then understanding price formation requires methodological tools that can capture both the formal aspects of economic calculation and the informal aspects of social negotiation and commitment.

This methodological requirement explains the integration of narrative and quantitative approaches employed in this study. Narrative methods are necessary to understand the embedded social processes through which individual decision-makers integrate private and social considerations. Quantitative methods, particularly hedonic pricing models, are necessary to identify the systematic patterns through which these integrated valuations are expressed in market outcomes.

The epistemological framework thus provides a coherent foundation for methodological pluralism that is neither mere eclecticism nor a compromise between incompatible approaches, but a recognition that understanding embedded economic processes requires analytical tools adequate to their complex, integrated nature.

Who should go to the U?

Noah thinks itโ€™s students from foreign countries.

But when 9 out of 10 spots in a phd program are taken by foreign students from an adversarial point of origin across the seas, they are not subsidizing local students they are squeezing them out.

It is difficult to support the idea that local taxation pays for local kids to get educated when all the openings are reserved kids from abroad. (Oh and then there was the scandal that they had been fudging their test scores)

Where is the balance? Iโ€™m not sure, but thatโ€™s the issue.