Nifty word- mainspring

The phrase โ€œthe mainspring of the storyโ€ is a metaphorical expression that refers to the central driving force or primary motivation that propels the narrative forward. Just as a mainspring in a mechanical watch provides the energy to keep it running, the mainspring of a story is the core element that gives it momentum, purpose, and cohesion.

In life, there are often several intermingled motivations pulsing through the engine for action. But usually there is a mainspring– one impulse pulling in the lead. You would skip going to the grocery except for the turkey for Thanksgiving. And since you are there, another couple of dozen food items also end up on the metal grid at the bottom of the cart. The supermarkets have gotten wise to such things and tempt shoppers into their aisles by advertising the big bird at 77 cents a pound.

Sometimes the mainspring is a different type of impulse. Instead of competing for the lowest price, this mainspring is about giving to the most significant number. A mainspring may drive a young guy to work as a manager at a supersized grocery for a quarter century. But then things change. And the same individual, with the same set of skills, might be driven to help others by working as the manager of a food shelf.

Sometimes people hide their mainspring. They don’t want to be judged by the we they find themselves amongst. Sometimes this subversion is enacted through substitution โ€”no, I’m not buying it for prestige; I’m buying it to make my wife happy. Ok. Right.

Some mainsprings are treacherous. Fear, for instance. Fear as a mainspring can drive all sorts of damaging or wasteful actions. Fear of running out of food means you bring home too much, and it spoils. Fear of buying too much means you can’t quite complete your menu and are always falling short of a satisfying meal. And of course, fear instigated by others is ultimately responsible for some type of corruption in the system.

When trying to put a model around our messy world, first find the locus of action. Who exactly is the source of the analysis? Then find their mainspring, whether hidden or out in plain sight for all to see. Otherwise, you are just another jammerer floating all sorts of ‘we’s’ that bob on the waves of idle conversation with no direction at all.

London- a late bloomer in the water department

No one in the western world really questions whether water provision is best suited to the public or private spheres. Being hooked up to city water and sewer is unanimously considered a good thing. Was it always that way? Well- no. Londoners purchased water from private suppliers through the end of the nineteenth century.

John Broich gives an excellent history of how the desire for water provision shaped London.

His account tells how secondary cities in the British Isles adopted a municipal water system decades before the great capital on the Thames. In fact, the continued delays in accomplishing this civic feat help exemplify the many facets of interests and the levers in play. There are issues of pollution and health concerns, there are networks of private providers, and the wealthy who buy their way to what they want. There is petty jealousy and the pride of belonging to an international city. And most astonishing, there is no government structure to handle such infrastructure outside of the walls of ancient London.

For provincial water reformers, the principles on which the administration of water was based-as well as the engineering principles on which water provision was based-were meant to make their cities more modern in the sense expressed by Avery, the Birmingham councilor.

“When water is under the control of private companies, the chief desire of the directors is to obtain good dividends,” said a Bradford town councilor in 1852. “When the Town Council possesses the works,” he continued, “their chief object is to make the works instrumental to the promotion of cleanliness, the health, and the comfort of all classes of citizens.”57

Water administration by a directly representative body was to provide an obvious contrast to the commercial companies that made independent decisions about water quality, abundance, and price based on the profit motive.

It is an excellent story depicting the nature of what is public and what is private. For a literary companion piece, consider reading Dickens’s Bleak House.

Listen to Grumpy (cont 2)

There’s truth in this phrase.

There is no blob of โ€œgovernmentโ€ money, or โ€œpolicyโ€ that can make something affordable for one without making something else less affordable for another.

So if tenants get immediate relief from a rent freeze, where does that money come from?

Those outside the business may think that this will trigger a direct transfer from a wealthy landowner. Structurally this is an impractical notion. Even for those who have equity, it is just that: wealth tied up in the value of the property. It is not cash that can circulate and pay bills.

But in most all cases, the funds that come in from rent are pegged to go out to another obligation. This might be property taxes which are known to increase every year. This might be to a bank that financed the purchase of the property. And the insurance company which provides property isurance as required. This might be to a utility company. Each of these obligations have recourse for non-payment which ultimately leads to their making first claims on the income.

The funds which subsidize the rent freeze are most likely to come from monies intended for repairs and maintenance of the property. These vary from tasks that are good to do but not urgent, to things that if defrayed cause additional costs, to things that need immediate attention like a leaky pipe or a furnace outage. To give an idea of the number of routine items involved in the care of real estate, consider this post.

Over time, two things tend to occur. First, the new landlords with all their positive energy and desires to get ahead can’t maintain a financial foothold and leave. Other longer term owners prioritizes the most important fixes but let the cosemetic upgrades go. Over time more and more of the longer term components age, yards get overgrown, appliances become run down. The housing stock deteriorates.

The neighborhood at large is depreciated by blight, taking a little chunk of equity from every property owner nearby.

Listen to Grumpy (con’t)

The biggest losers of rent control are the young, the mobile, the ambitious, immigrants, and people without a lot of cash. If you want to move from Fresno to take a job in San Francisco and move up, and you donโ€™t have millions lying around to buy, you need rentals. Rent control means they are not available. Income inequality, opportunity, equity, all get worse.

In this paragraph, John Cochrane begins to draw lines around groups of people who will lose out under a rent-control, a policy that favors those who have established leases with landlords.

The reader can quickly imagine a young person being squeezed out of houisng by the combination of entry-level pay and bulked-up rent. The surcharge is necessary to balance out the rent-controled units. That’s the persona that comes to mind and it is the one the author intends to convey. But wait. What about the just-out-of-school coders and engineers that are swooped up by the tech companies?

These kids are paid a lot money. They are can choose where to live without much concern as, most often, they have no other attachments. They all live together in some big tech hub, often times leaving their childhood communties behind. They no longer have other points of reference like a brother who took up plumbing, or grandparents on fixed income. Not only do the have the cash flow to spend they are not being reminded that others do not.

One descriptor is not enough to form a group. To say the population of Minnesota has remained constant is light on details. Susan Bower, the state demographer, explains some of the demographic breaks down in Eden Prairie, a SW suburb of the Twin Cities. At the presentation she notes the the state loses 5,000-10,000 people a year but it is made up through international immigration. In other words, the people who leave have no concerns regarding rent control are replaced by a group who are disadvantaged by rent control.

To be efficient, matching people in consideration of their stage in life with their housing needs is best. Policies which keep people in place or discourages them from moving up, moving closer to employment, moving to a stronger school district, moving closer to support systems and so on are detrimental.

Learn from Grumpy

The Grumpy Economist has another great post, this time about rent control. For those of us in real estate, it’s an irritating topic. The errors in the use of price controls are numerous. Using John Cochrane’s article as a road map might be interesting to illustrate this point. Let’s start with this paragraph.

Sure, โ€œsharply rising rents and utility bills wreak havoc on family budgets,โ€ if the families donโ€™t follow the screaming market signal to move. (Which is not painless, for sure. Incentives never are.) But the money comes from somewhere. Rent controls and energy price caps wreak havoc on landlord end electric utility budgets.ย The money must come from somewhere.

The claim is that rents are rising sharply. The reader pictures a Scrooge-like figure pounding on the door of a cowering family of four, announcing a ‘sharp’ rent increase (extra dollar symbols for emphasis), while behind this embodiment of the typical landlord stands an eviction notice ready to be served. I’d love to see numbers to this effect. I challenge that the ‘sharp’ rent increases are occurring at lease renewals.

Large corporate landlords might have a set policy of annual increases, but they account for only 3-4% of proprietors. Landlords must juggle the cost-benefit of increasing rent. As 80% own and manage the units, they calculate the costs, time, and uncertainty of a new tenant. This is weighed against a 3% increase on $1,100 or $33/mo in additional income. Needless to say, many landlords will forego a rent increase to keep a good tenant.

These subtleties are lost in real estate analysis, where all the numbers are averaged as if there were one typical renter, one typical landlord, and one typical property. This couldn’t be further from the truth. There are whole economies of renter groups. There are students who will have negative income before they join the workforce; there are singles with high-fluting jobs and no other responsibilities; there are single parents; there are couples with kids in a city just for a bit; there are elderly on fixed income with low mobility; there are recently divorcees looking for a glamorous downtown lifestyle.

Are all these groups to receive the same treatment? The same concern for their monthly budgets?Rent controls are initiated at the city level. Every group of renters would receive the benefit of a market-restrained obligation. Is that the intention?

Landlords are also assumed to be a certain type. The persona has tremendous equity in their property, no debt, and other cash they are stashing like squirrels do with acorns in the fall. And certainly some landlords fit this description. But more likely than not, the landlord has a mortgage and obligations against their time. The new entrants to the field, those trying to get ahead by getting a foothold in real estate, are undoubtedly the ones who need to make the cash flow.

When property taxes, utilities, or the cost of hiring labor rise, a landlord has no way to respond until a lease comes up for renewal. Rent control tightens this squeeze, leaving property owners caught between increasing public demands funded through taxation and their limited ability to recover those costs through rent. The first to be pushed out are often the newcomersโ€”the small, aspiring owners who bring fresh energy and ambition to the market, but lack the cushion to absorb sustained losses.

Lesson number one. Averaging is a mistake. Assuming there is only one type of each actor in this economic trade of money for lodging makes for an impossible conversation.

A book about risk

Iโ€™m quite enjoying Allison Schragerโ€™s accounts of how people navigate risk in their lives. The book is full of stories about poker players and surfers, as well as bankers and bond traders.

Although the framework follows the model of an individual making a decision, in the background there are many communal references. This passage is about the paparazzi partnerships.

Since the best shots come down to being in the right place at the right time, photogs often form teams or alliances to share tips and sometimes royalties to increase the odds or payoffs they’ll be in that place. In 2003, Baez founded a group called PACO, “like the jeans,” combining the words “paparazzi” and “company.”

PACO consisted of ten experienced photographers. They traded tips on where certain celebrities hung out and when. So if Baez spotted a celebrity eating lunch at a trendy restaurant, he would alert the other PACO members. He says, beaming with pride, “Back in the day when we’d show up, the other guys would say, ‘Oh no, here comes PACO, because we were the best.”

Family ties show up in several of the vignettes. Somehow the prospects of his first love trump a degree from Stanford. When talking about the business executive Arnold Donald, she recounts.

It was a way to get both worlds: the liberal arts experience he wanted and the Stanford engineering degree.

During his sophomore year at Carleton, Donald married his college sweetheart, who also received a place at Stanford’s engineering school but no scholarship. Rather than take on the financial risk of student loans, they went to Washington University in St. Louis, where they both had scholarships.

And background players can even accumulate into a whole world of their own. For the poker player, thereโ€™s a benefit to syncing with the subculture.

The world of professional poker is a unique subculture-complete with special outfits and lingo-that appears foreign to outsiders. Its obsessive fan base watches games on television or in person for hours, is preoccupied with stats, and gambles on the players and games. Winning at poker comes down to luck and skill. Luck is being dealt a winning hand. Skill is knowing how and when to bet, and having the discipline and ability to infer what other players are doing.

Although not explicitly described or measured in terms of their influence, social relations, network effects, family ties, and workplace mechanics are ever-present in Schrager’s stories on risk.

Who can tax?

There are laws about such things. The authority to take a cut off a sale or charge or demand an annual fee for property, whether homes or cars, needs to be officially granted. The funds travel from individuals to a fund for government officials to distribute out for public commitments.

But there are other things local governments do that act as a tax. There are all sorts of city permits required to replace a hot water heater or install a deck. When a builder applies for approval of a subdivision, the city council may say that is all fine and good as long as a sliver of the land is threaded through as a trail and a chunk of green space in the middle is spun up into a playground. The release of land is a tax on the developer. A good one mind you but still a relinquishing of an asset.

What would be the difference between a favorable tax and a verging-on-illegal tax?

Having a developer build in parks and trails at the time of development leaves an asset for the new owners directly, and for the city at large for those who travel further for recreation. This flow of money from a private company back to the community, for the use of all residents, seems to fall in the spirit of the arrangement. It is a particularly timely ask since retrofitting older neighborhoods with parks and trails is difficult and impractical.

Consider another example. A builder wants to convert a five-story building in a historic district in a significant US city. There are extensive regulations associated with the age and history of the area. There are also regulations in place to meet current environmental concerns. Without spending the time to delve into every detail, the end result is that the builder must install solar panels on the roof of the building, which cannot be serviced by the building due to its age and preservation requirements. The building’s infrastructure cannot effectively utilize the energy output from the solar panels.

The final agreement is to hand over ownership of the panels to the utility company. Their maintenance and output will now be maintained by a completely separate entity, even though they sit atop the developer’s project and the developer’s bottom line had to muscle in their expense.

Doesn’t this seem like a direct transfer of funds from the builder to another semi-private company? Doesn’t it seem like a redistributive tax or at least a subsidy? Does the municipality this type of taxing authority?

John Cochrane looks for a new framing

I’ve been following John Cochrane’s blog, “A Grumpy Economist,” for a while now. I love the self-depricating title and, of course, the material. In a recent Substack post, he tackles the question of climate change, government subsidies, and the groups of people who win and lose.

In short, he is saying that the massive subsidies that all US taxpayers have been funneling into electric vehicles are not generating the intended return. Not at all. They are bills being scattered in the wind.

OK– but how? and why? And what else should be considered? In short, what is the new framing that would better capture the intentions, levers, and incentives to address this issue?

Consider first the who. There are the EV activists. They have provided voice to the issue of climate change. And have been successful in securing financial subsidies from US citizens at large. The population of the US is the greater group. They too care enough to syphon off funds for the cause. But John Cochrane points out that the who is really the global population. Climate change flows over political boundaries. Reductions of pollutants in California can easily be negated by activity elsewhere on the globe.

The implication here is that to solve the issue of climate change, the anchor of discretion lies in with global population. To have an impact, activity across this group must have a measurable effect. Otherwise, a small group of earnest adjusters will work and sacrifice (in the EV example, US taxpayer dollars) to no beneficial ends. Lots of effort. Lots of signaling. No results.

Lastly, Cochraine mentions time. The time frame over which the analysis is best observed is one hundred years. To bully and berate neighbors into small gestures in the name of climate change is counterproductive, he says. The perspective is global, marked over centuries, and thus requires intentions and drive measurable within that framework.

Is that Work?

If you follow this site, you know that it proposes activities that enhance and advance humans, fall into two buckets. There is private, unfettered activity that severs at time of transaction, free of social encumbrances or infringements. Then there is activity which supports the welfare of groups of people amongst whom there are typically numerous overlapping objectives. There is the private sphere where much of commerce lives, and there is the public sphere, kind to the nurturing of children, the prevention of crime, and the enforcement of norms sometimes formalized in into laws.

In the private sphere, people sell their time and talents. This is called labor. The public sphere is often dependent on what is termed volunteerism or unpaid labor. But I like to call it work. Below is a post from The Marginal Revolution site, which confirms that unpaid labor is more than helping an elderly person across the street or reporting a suspicious person in the alley. The number of hours contributed by this couple in civic engage prompted putting new technology to the task.

Start quote:

Solve for the NIMBY equilibrium?

by  Tyler Cowen November 12, 2025 at 3:08 am in 

We are just beginning to think these issues through:

The governmentโ€™s plan to use artificial intelligence to accelerate planning for new homes may be about to hit an unexpected roadblock: AI-powered nimbyism.

A new service called Objector is offering โ€œpolicy-backed objections in minutesโ€ to people who are upset about planning applications near their homes.

It uses generative AI to scan planning applications and check for grounds for objection, ranking these as โ€œhighโ€, โ€œmediumโ€ or โ€œlowโ€ impact. It then automatically creates objection letters, AI-written speeches to deliver to the planning committees, and even AI-generated videos to โ€œinfluence councillorsโ€.

Kent residents Hannah and Paul George designed the system after estimating they spent hundreds of hours attempting to navigate the planning process when they opposed plans to convert a building near their home into a mosque.

Here is the full story.  Via Aaron K.

Me again: The comments section is replete with the potential downside for using technology in this manner. But I say the powerful leverage lies in understanding how people work in their communities. Consider how many hours are required for all the multiple support programming in play, every day, in the USA.

50 year mortgages and the nature of things

A proposal for a 50-year amortization mortgage aims to make homeownership more affordable by spreading payments over a longer period, thereby reducing monthly costs. However, the trade-off is that borrowers would pay substantially more interest over the life of the loan and build equity more slowly. Advocates argue it could ease housing affordability pressures, especially in high-cost markets, and improve access for younger or first-time buyers. Critics counter that such loans may inflate housing prices further, extend household debt burdens, and delay financial stability. Overall, a 50-year amortization reflects a policy tension between affordability and long-term economic prudence.

Hereโ€™s a clear example comparing 30-year vs. 50-year amortization on a $350,000 home, assuming a fixed interest rate of 6% and no down payment (to isolate the amortization effect):


Loan TermMonthly Payment (Principal + Interest)Total Paid Over TermTotal Interest Paid
30 years @ 6%$2,098$755,280$405,280
50 years @ 6%$1,870$1,122,000$772,000

The 50-year loan lowers the monthly payment by about $228, but total interest nearly doubles over the life of the loan โ€” a very expensive trade-off for the borrower in the long run.

Adjustable-rate mortgages offer another way to reduce payments, at least initially. ARMs typically begin with a lower introductory interest rate (for example, 5% for the first five years on a 5/1 ARM) before adjusting annually based on market conditions.

While ARMs can make early payments comparable to or even lower than a 50-year fixed loan, they carry rate-reset risk โ€” payments can rise sharply if interest rates increase. Currently, availability is moderate: most lenders still offer ARMs (3/1, 5/1, 7/1 terms), but after the 2008 crisis, underwriting standards became stricter, and long-term fixed loans remain more common.

I’m all for offering a wide variety of financial instruments for consumers to use in the purchase of a home. However, over the long run, I don’t feel that the 50-year amortization allows for a sufficient paydown. As people navigate their lives, they count on the equity that accumulates through price appreciation and mortgage debt reduction. A healthy market is fluid, where people can buy and sell without being constrained by excessive debt.

I’ll make the claim that people find the market unaffordable because they don’t want to buy what is affordable to them. This is difficult to demonstrate without specifics. But each housing market has a range of price points. If folks are paying rent, then they are more likely to be able to acquire a property with a similar payment. They simply don’t want to live in that particular spot, or do the repairs necessary to improve it, or view it as a starter home from which they will move on someday.

Is purchasing a medical proceedure the same as buying a car?

I would argue no, for several key reasons.

First, a medical procedure’s success depends heavily on patient participation. The outcome hinges on whether patients follow their physician’s instructions, avoid harmful foods or activities, commit to their rehabilitation, and make necessary sacrifices for optimal recovery. A car, by contrast, operates on a predictable maintenance scheduleโ€”oil changes every 7,000 miles, new tires at 50,000 milesโ€”and doesn’t require active participation each time you get behind the wheel to function properly.

Second, evaluating medical outcomes is inherently subjective, shaped by individual expectations and varying standards of success. A tangible good like a car, however, has objective, measurable qualities that remain consistent regardless of who’s assessing it or observing it.

Finally, medical procedures carry inherent risk. Unlike most purchases, where you start at a baseline and gain utility, healthcare interventions don’t guarantee positive outcomes. A procedure can result in complications requiring additional interventions, meaning you could begin at zero and end up worse off. There’s always the possibility of a negative outcome, which fundamentally distinguishes healthcare from consumer goods.

For these reasons, healthcare tends to be heavily influenced by social groups. Peer pressure encourages people to take care of themselves. Role models who demonstrate how to go the extra mile can influence and encourage patients to do the same. The extent of care may be directed in part by group expectations. But, the most significant risk with this over a car or other tangible goods, is that lack of care or poor care can cause the patient to go backwards and incur even more costs both to the body and the pocketbook.

Land claims and the development of administration

But it required more than an annual tour to administer and exert royal power throughout Scotland. The size and geography of the kingdom required the representation of royal authority at both regional and local levels. This was carried out by two tiers of royal officials.

MORMAERS

Mormaers were powerful territorial magnates and their extensive provinces were the primary level of royal administration in eleventh-century Scotland. Mแป›rmaer means ‘great steward’ and this Gaelic title is first recorded in 918, although its origins are unclear. The absence of mormaers in Ireland indicates that this office was not introduced with the migration of the Dรกl Riata or from Ireland at a later date. Instead, the predominantly north-eastern distribution of the Scottish provinces recorded as having mormaers suggests that this office had Pictish origins. It may have originated in the provincial kingships that lost their royal status as the kingship of the Picts became increasingly centralised.

However, the disappearance of the earlier Pictish provinces and their names suggests a degree of political and administrative reorganisation after the eclipse of Pictish power in the mid-ninth century. Alternatively, these new provinces may have emerged in response to the requirement for a more effective military organisation to counter Viking raids on Scotland during the ninth and tenth centuries. But the origins of the provinces should probably be sought in internal Picto-Scottish factors rather than external stimuli.

This title popped off the bookshelf at me as I had recently sat in on a Macbeth talk and thoughts had been churning ever since. Intrigued by the play I sought to learn more. And this slim book offered that. And, unexpectedly, the text veered into the social structures of the day. In particular Aitchison describes the layers of relationships between various populations of the time and their ties to Highlands, moors, isles, and meadowlands of Scotland.

Me to Grok: Is it reasonable to attribute the centralizing of power in part to the administration of geographic areas like the mormaers? In other words the repetition of covering the land both in taxation and aid helped to create norms which supported and abstract central power versus a family?

Grok: Yes โ€” absolutely reasonable, and youโ€™ve just named the single most powerful engine that turned Anglo-Saxon (and Scottish) society from โ€œfamily-firstโ€ to โ€œking-firstโ€.

The short answer is:

Every time a kingโ€™s officer walked the same geographical circuit to collect tax, raise troops, or hold court, he taught the locals a new reflex: โ€œMy duty runs to the shire, not to my cousin.โ€

Below are the four concrete mechanisms that made repetitive geographic administration the killer app of centralisation. Iโ€™ll keep it crisp, with one Anglo-Saxon and one Scottish example for each.

1. The map replaced the family tree

โ€ข Mechanism: The same official (reeve / mormaer) visited the same villages every year on a fixed route.

โ€ข Anglo-Saxon: The shire-reeve rode the hundred circuit at Michaelmas to collect the farm of one night (food-rent). Villagers saw the same face, carrying the same rod of office.

โ€ข Scottish: The mormaer of Moray toured the same thanages every spring to count ploughs for the cain (render in cattle). After three generations the route was more famous than any genealogy.

2. Tax created a shared calendar

โ€ข Mechanism: Everyone paid on the same day โ†’ everyone felt the same obligation.

โ€ข Anglo-Saxon: Domesday Book (1086) records hide assessments that had been frozen for 150 years. A ceorl in Berkshire paid Martinmas geld on 14 November whether his uncle feuded with the next village or not.

โ€ข Scottish: The Conveth payments (barley + cheese) were due on Lammas (1 Aug) across the whole mormaerdom of Buchan. The date glued together men who had never met.

3. Military service was territorial, not kin-based

โ€ข Mechanism: One man per 5 hides (or one per davoch in Scotland) turned up with spear and 40 daysโ€™ food.

โ€ข Anglo-Saxon: The trimoda necessitas (bridge, fortress, fyrd) was owed by the land, not the bloodline. If your cousin dodged, the reeve fined the whole vill.

โ€ข Scottish: David Iโ€™s charters (1124โ€“53) demand Scottish service from every davoch in Moray. A mormaer who tried to raise only his own cousins was laughed at.

4. Courts met in the same place on the same day

โ€ข Mechanism: Predictable geography โ†’ predictable law โ†’ abstract king.

โ€ข Anglo-Saxon: Hundred court under the holy oak every four weeks; shire court at the kingโ€™s hall twice a year. Suits were โ€œshire vs. shireโ€, not โ€œclan vs. clanโ€.

โ€ข Scottish: The mormaerโ€™s airidh court at the stone of Forglen sat every Beltane. A theft in Cullen was judged by Buchan law, not by the thiefโ€™s great-grandmotherโ€™s kin.

Mini-experiment you can run in your head

Imagine two villages 20 miles apart:

โ€ข Year 750: Each is run by its own kindred; feuds last decades.

โ€ข Year 950: Both send 1 man per 5 hides to the same shire-reeve at Reading; both pay geld on Martinmas; both attend the same hundred court under the oak.
โ†’ By 950 the shire is a louder identity than the kindred.

One-sentence summary

The kingโ€™s tax-collector and war-reeve walked the same roads so often that the roads themselves became the new skeleton of loyalty, and the family tree withered to a decorative twig.

Scottish post-script

The mormaers are the perfect bridge case.

โ€ข 9th century: they were super-chiefs of giant kindreds.

โ€ข 12th century: they are earls who hold regalities by royal charter and collect the kingโ€™s cain in coin.
The turning point? The annual ride around the thanages, repeated for five generations.

So yes โ€” geography, drilled into muscle memory by taxation and aid, was the quiet solvent that dissolved tribal solidarity and built the abstract state.

Me again. Whatโ€™s important about the details written here in the backdrop of Shakespeareโ€™s famous villain, is it demonstrates how many generations or hundreds of years it took to disengage a population from clan ties to administrative loyalties.

Is there not a better explanation for the slow pace of some countries to transition to more sophisticated political economies?

Professorโ€™s presidential challenge

On Fareed Zakariaโ€™s show, GPS, this morning, guest Mai Hassan throws down a Trumpian challenge.

Finally, hundreds of civilians were massacred this week in Sudan’s Darfur region, a brutal escalation of the ongoing war in that country. Mai Hassan, a political science professor at MIT, sat down with Fareed to discuss how it got to this point. 

She suggests that the US president has the power and influence to bring a peaceful solution in Sudan. At the margin, this conflict offers a better chance at that elusive Scandinavian prize.

That was then- This is now

This catalogue arrived in my mailbox today. Are algorithms not enough for the massive online store? Amazon is using print marketing materials and supporting the United State Post Office to reach customers. Oh my!

Or what about the demise of the bookstore, so hardily predicted fifteen or more years ago?

Barnes & Noble opened more new bookstores in a single year than it had in the whole decade from 2009 to 2019. The bookseller expects to open over 60 new bookstores in 2025.

Bigger is better.

 The new Minnetonka Barnes & Noble will cover over 18,000 square feet, including a B&N Cafรฉ, and carry all the best books, as well as a wide range of toys, games and the usual paper and gifting items found at Barnes & Noble.

A social model of Trick-or-Treat

Everyone laments the commercialization of the holidays. How tacky! How capitalistic! So why do these distasteful traditions continue to weave their way through our culture? Let’s investigate the social upsides to see if there are compensating factors.

First, it is necessary to identify the parties involved. There are the vendors of fun-size treats. These folks are unabashedly money-oriented organizations. There are parents who dutifully open their front doors and dig handfuls of treats out of their stash to parlay them into the bulging pillowcases or plastic pumpkins presented by the costumed youngsters yelping: Trick-or-Treat! These folks are subsidizers. They purchase the candy with no designs on a pecuniary return for their money. And then there are the kids. One might think they have no investment, but that’s not true. Their delight at the mystery of the evening, at the intrigue of mask-wearing, and at the innocent charm they exude is a draw to those around them.

For a proper evaluation, one must anchor the focus of discretion. This tracks which group is being considered in the balancing of accounts. Let’s start with the stores. They are commercial ventures, supplying items their customers demand in return for enough to pay their expenses and a little more. If Halloween went to the wayside, they would simply move on to something else. There seems to be very little to model here in terms of the social sphere.

Now, let’s anchor the view from the adult participants. They lay out the cash– so what do they get? They bring joy to their kids and perhaps a little to themselves. The event might rope in grandma and grandpa, a couple of worthy backstops in the activities of family life. Lastly, the business of activity on the streets brings out a Jane Jacobsian benefit. So, parents and adults can gain in private pleasure, family bonding, and community spirit.

Lastly, consider the kids. It might seem like a windfall for them. However, probably more than one parent keeps the incentives of a successful Halloween as a behavior modifier. So they too pitch in with a bit of work when it comes to supporting the holiday.

For the foreseeable future, the balance in favor of the social gains indicates a continued future for this spooky festivity.

Public says no Payment for rescuing Private parties

Usually actions to shore up safety are drawn from the public purse. But sometimes private actions pull this obligation out of the public sphere.

A Snowstorm Blew Over Mt Washington. More than 20 Hikers were trapped

More than 20 hikers needed to be rescued from the flanks of Mount Washington in New Hampshire after wintry conditions swept across the famed peak on Saturday, October 25.

โ€ฆ..

โ€œMultiple people have arrived at the summit the last few days very unprepared for winter and required assistance. Be โ€˜wildly Responsibleโ€™ and please do some research on current higher summits weather and bring everything needed to hike in winter conditions or just hike another day,โ€ writes the New Hampshire State Park on Facebook.

Personal responsibility in this case means personal repayment.

The New Hampshire fines stem from a piece of legislation called RSA 206:26-bb, which states that โ€œany person determined by the department to have acted negligently in requiring a search and rescue response by the department shall be liable to the department for the reasonable cost of the departmentโ€™s expenses for such search and rescue response.โ€

What you donโ€™t know yourself

A home is a complicated purchase. The variables are numerous. The structure is what everyone thinks of first: bedrooms, bathrooms, beautiful kitchens. There are niche items, such as screened-in porches or swimming pools. There are external demands, such as level lawns and striking views. All that along with the nuts and bolts of square footage, the year the home was built, and the number of garage spaces go into the assessed values as calculated for tax purposes.

But there’s more that goes into the process of the home purchase at the time of the transaction. Market conditions, interest rates, and the time of year impact the buying and selling process. The condition of the home can certainly swing a property from very desirable to manageable, only for the most hearty investor. Sometimes the right buyer shows up and eagerly signs for the home in part because the semi loaded with their household belonging is on the way and will need to be unloaded, or parked at a considerable expense.

Real estate is a complicated product. So when a client looks over their showing sheet and wants to talk price, it is important to remind them that is set between buyers and sellers. That as participants in the market they are the best judges of the price based on the path that has led them to the home. As their agent, we can show how the numbers fall within an acceptable range of what the market has recently born out. But ultimately it is up to them to risk missing out by staying low or having buyerโ€™s remorse by going high.

As Pete Boetkke recently wrote in What Hayek Understood About the Unknowable Nature of Markets:

But the dynamics of a market arenโ€™t a given to be applied as one thinks wise when powerful people want to mandate lower rent or produce more computer chips. They must be generated, discovered, utilized, and conveyedโ€”constantly adapting and adjusting to the changing circumstances of economic life. โ€œThe continuous flow of goods and services,โ€ Hayek wrote, โ€œis maintained by constant deliberate adjustments, by new dispositions made every day in the light of circumstances not known the day before, by B stepping in at once when A fails to deliver.โ€

Although these words are generalized, the ideas are there. It is a process of discovery that encourages or dissuades people as they navigate their choices amongst the homes for sale. And when they identify one that offers more of what they really desire with fewer compromises on items that bother, then they move with confidence in securing the transaction. Often, until that point in the process, they don’t know what they want themselves.

Number Nuance

Yesterday’s post showed off a range of house prices across the country. Since housing expenses are the largest portion of most people’s budgets, they greatly influence people’s standards of living and disposable income. To live a lush life in St. Louis might only allow you to squeak by in Salt Lake City.

For that reason, itโ€™s funny when someone brags about their โ€œsix-figure salaryโ€ โ€” and then you find out they live in Washington State. Sure, congratulations on your $100K, but thatโ€™s basically a modest Minnesota income with prettier mountains and pricier coffee. Thereโ€™s a strange amnesia that kicks in when people talk about money across states, as if groceries, gas, and rent were all federally standardized.

Then thereโ€™s the gross-up crowd โ€” those who love to quote the full sticker price of their income, conveniently forgetting everything that comes off the top. Taxes, insurance premiums, pension contributionsโ€ฆ not to mention the hidden perks that donโ€™t show up on a pay stub: flexible hours, remote days, or a workplace that doesnโ€™t mind if you pick up your kid at 3 p.m. Some of the most valuable parts of a job canโ€™t be cashed out โ€” theyโ€™re lived.

Each region and industry really runs on its own microclimate of opportunity. What looks โ€œlow payโ€ in one city can mean stability, a yard, and free weekends somewhere else. Meanwhile, other jobs look golden until you notice the 70-hour weeks, commutes, and housing markets that never quite forgive you.

And then, of course, there are our Canadian friends. Always happy to tell you about their million-dollar home โ€” in Canadian dollars, around $720K USD. Not quite as flashy a number. But don’t worry, weโ€™ll do the math for you, eh?

MT is up to $495!

California is always high. I remember when Colorado pricing surged ahead of Minnesotaโ€™s, but thatโ€™s been like that for a while now.

Connecticut seems low for the east coast. And Alabama is a bargain! Especially since their school system is starting to put out some strong scores.

Which stateโ€™s average price of housing surprised you?

Historical Fact of the Day- Zoning

Zoning, a means of controlling the land and housing markets by dictating acceptable uses for particular parcels of land, was invented during the 1910s and spread to most American cities by the end of the 1920s. St. Paul and Minneapolis passed their first zoning ordinances
early in the 1920s. The goals of zoning were similar to those of the building permit and inspection programs: to promote public health and safety, and to preserve property values. Zoning is an effective control mechanism, but it is essentially a preventive tactic.

Past Choices/Present Landscapes

Real Estate Books

There arenโ€™t many. Thereโ€™s the โ€˜how to get rich in real estateโ€™ type of literature, which is only vaguely helpful to those with no real estate experience and, in equal measure, misleading. There are books developed to help salespersons pass the required testing to obtain a real estate license. There’s material on all sorts of financial instruments used to finance property. But I’m not talking about that type of thing.

Iโ€™m talking about the manner in which real estate features in peopleโ€™s lives.

Judith Martin, a former professor of geography at the University of Minnesota, wrote Past Choices/Present Landscapes: The Impact of Urban Renewal on the Twin Cities. This project spotlights some of the effects I like to talk about. It focuses on the massive slum-clearing and subsequent redevelopment of large sections of inner-city property. In hind site Martin points out:

Much has been written about the ideas and the implementation of the urban renewal program in the United States during the 1950s and 1960s. Most of this literature views urban renewal as a program that: (1) worked to the disadvantage of people most in need of improved housing -a great deal of substandard housing was removed, but a relatively small amount of low-income housing was constructed;(2) was a boondoggle for developers-they were able to acquire land inexpensively from city authorities, and often made large profits on the projects built on this publicly acquired land; and (3) focused on
economic development issues C’let’s fix up downtown”) at the expense of housing and neighborhood concerns (Anderson 1964; Hartman 1964; Gans 1965).

Viewed in retrospect, much of this criticism is valid, but it does not tell the whole story. Critics have portrayed planners who developed and implemented urban renewal programs as heartless beasts who turned a deaf ear to the real needs of “the people.” But it is hard to see most renewal officials as greedy and profiteering, or as consciously
trying to exercise their power over helpless city residents. There are, for example, no notable cases of renewal officials growing rich working on these programs. If anything, the views of those who implemented urban renewal programs in the Twin Cities and elsewhere can be considered somewhat naive. They assumed that renewal could be
accomplished quickly, that private developers would clamor for the opportunity to build in available areas, and that the renewal process could be carried out with relatively few snags. None of these assumptions proved to be true.

Real estate is a tricky wicket. If people want to follow along, they need to, as Judith indicates, read the whole landscape and not cherry-pick a brief situation in the misty flow of time.

Decay

It takes a long time for a house to completely depreciate. Many of its structural elements have lives longer than decades. Exterior features in like roofs, siding, windows, and doors may need little maintenance for years.

Yard work left to run free may give the appearance of a property left to nature. But eradicating the growth is of little cost compared with replacing all new heating and cooling systems, water heaters and appliances. Most of these have an average life of 12-15 years. And then, of course, there are the plumbing and lighting fixtures that are often replaced for both cosmetic and functional reasons.

At each phase of putting off a replacement and trying to patch things up and get by, a debt of maintenance is created. If the property were to trade hands, a new owner might be willing to take on a few additional repairs for a concession on price. At some point (and what would that be?) the average buyer turns away. There’s too much to do. There are too many lurking money pits under the subfloor in the bathroom or behind the paneling in the lower level.

This is when the structure’s value falls to zero. The parcel will only command the price of the land it sits on, with an adjustment for the cost of debris removal. But it takes decades to get to this point. The built world is durable, and there are many opportunities for rejuvenation.

Mobil Homes

There continue to be mobile home parks across the metro offering one of the most affordable form of housing. The structure is considered a vehicle and licensed as such. The home is anchored on a lot in a mobile home park and rent is due every month in a similar fashion to association dues. People like to talk about tiny homes now. Still, manufactured homes can be reasonably constructed in a factory and meet the same quality and amenities as RV’s, another acceptable form of shelter.

:Here are some current listings and recent sales:

Few mobile home parks rise to the level of civic engagement that can be seen in Landfall Terrace, a community on the eastern side of the metro. As with many good things it starts with its history.

James and Mitzi Olson used to own all of the land in Landfall. They moved here in 1953 into a cottage that was hardly better than a log cabin.ย …The Olsons had lived in a mobile home during World War ll and knew that there was a shortage of affordable housing, so they developed their site into a mobile home park. As it was on the early highway between St. Paul and Hudson, Landfall developed several businesses, including a truck stop, restaurant and nursery, most of which left when Interstate 94 was put through and access became limited.

Often successful things are born out of a basic need of local people. But it is only through nurturing and ongoing maintenance that group projects survive. Especially one a s successful as this.

Landfall is a city in Washington County, Minnesota, United States. The population was 843 at the 2020 census and it is the smallest community in Washington County in terms of area. It lies on the eastern shore of Tanner’s Lake on Interstate 94.

Landfall is an incorporation of a manufactured home community, contributing to its reputation as the most affordable community in the Twin Cities. In 2008 & 2010, the city was named one of the 100 best communities for young people by America’s Promise.

Landfall is one of only two incorporated cities in America that consist primarily of manufactured housing. 

Plat map from 1884

I was digging around the county historical society lately because I thought it would be fun to find where my relatives made a land claim when they arrived in the US. Plat maps, which track ownership, were not updated on a routine basis in the days of primary forests and pioneer wagons. This one was done in 1884, and the next printed update didn’t get published until 1902. Even though the family of five children, all born in Norway, are said to have arrived in 1874, the family name has yet to appear here. It does in 1902.

What you do notice is the number of parcels denoted by St. Paul Minneapolis and Manitoba Ry Co. or St. P. M. & M. Ry Co. These parcels were owned by the railroad built by James J. Hill. The school land is also a major player. There were 168 schools in Leaf Mountain Township. The forty acre plots with no names listed, or US, are the ones open for homesteading. It seems the US government priorities rolled out in that order: transportation, education, and homesteaders to make it all work.

Cabin from nearby site built in 1890

Shop Talk

A convo with ChatGpt: What does ‘shop talk’ mean

ChatGPT said:

โ€œShop talkโ€ means conversation about work or a particular profession, especially when it happens outside of work or in social settings.

It often implies that people are talking about technical details, jargon, or inside-baseball topics that only others in the same field would fully understand โ€” sometimes to the boredom of outsiders.

Examples:

  • โ€œLetโ€™s not get into shop talk at the party โ€” nobody else here wants to hear about accounting software.โ€
  • โ€œWhenever those two doctors get together, itโ€™s all shop talk.โ€

So, itโ€™s basically work-related conversation among colleagues or professionals, often used with a slightly negative or teasing tone (โ€œugh, enough shop talk!โ€).

You said:

Name three reasons why an outsider does not follow the insider baseball.

ChatGPT said:

Here are three clear reasons why outsiders often donโ€™t follow inside baseball (or shop talk):

  1. Specialized Knowledge or Jargon โ€“ Insiders use technical terms, acronyms, or references that make sense only within that field. Outsiders lack the background to decode the language.
    Example: A software engineer says, โ€œWe just migrated from monolith to microservices,โ€ and a non-tech person hears gibberish.
  2. Different Context or Priorities โ€“ Insiders share a sense of whatโ€™s important in their work โ€” the stakes, the rivalries, the subtleties. Outsiders donโ€™t know why those details matter.
    Example: A debate about which research framework is superior means little to someone outside academia.
  3. No Emotional Investment โ€“ Insiders are personally invested โ€” their reputations, routines, and identities are tied to the topic. Outsiders lack that emotional hook, so the conversation feels dry or trivial.
    Example: Two chefs passionately argue about knife brands while everyone else at the table just wants to eat.
You said:

Take these three reasons- are they not the features of an institutional network?

ChatGPT said:

Thatโ€™s an astute connection โ€” yes, those three reasons are very much features of an institutional network.

Letโ€™s unpack that:

  1. Specialized Knowledge or Jargon โ†’ Bounded Communication System
    Institutions build and maintain their own languages โ€” technical terms, shorthand, and shared references that mark belonging. This linguistic specialization not only allows for efficiency among insiders but also creates boundaries that separate members from outsiders. Itโ€™s a classic form of social closure: if you donโ€™t speak the language, youโ€™re not fully in.
  2. Different Context or Priorities โ†’ Shared Frames of Relevance
    Institutional networks define what counts as important, legitimate, or meaningful. Insiders share a frame of reference shaped by the institutionโ€™s history, goals, and internal hierarchies. Outsiders, lacking that frame, canโ€™t easily interpret why certain details matter. This is how institutions reproduce themselves โ€” by shaping what participants see as relevant knowledge.
  3. Emotional Investment โ†’ Identity and Belonging
    Institutions arenโ€™t just about rules and roles; they generate emotional commitments. Peopleโ€™s sense of identity becomes tied to their institutional membership โ€” whether itโ€™s a profession, academic discipline, or bureaucratic body. That investment reinforces the networkโ€™s cohesion and its internal culture, even as it alienates outsiders.

So in effect, โ€œshop talkโ€ and โ€œinside baseballโ€ are the micro-level expressions of institutional boundaries. They show how networks of practice sustain themselves through shared knowledge, values, and affective ties โ€” precisely the stuff that makes them opaque to outsiders.

Dynamic Private-Order Institutions

From a newly minted Nobel prize winner, Joel Mokyr.

Slowly, and perhaps not always quite perfectly, British formal institutions adapted. But the same was true for private-order institutions: the rather sudden rise of country banks in the second half of the 18th century illustrates the high degree of  adaptiveness of private-order British institutions; they were not coordinated or supervised by some central authority, and no political revolution was necessary to bring them into existence. Yet once the circumstances were suitable and opportunities arose, these banks emerged almost ab nihilo. They replaced the informal activities of local merchants, notaries, and attorneys who had previously intermediated in credit transactions.

This natural and spontaneous progression of credit extension brought real estate ownership to the greater populace.

Read his insights at Ideas Mattered, But So Did Institutions.

Slow Horses- Series Review

This band of MI5 misfits shows real promise. All have backstories, with the leader of the crew showing the deepest scars of past wrongs. His assistant is haunted by tragedy with some sort of entanglement. There’s an assortment of others, including a team builder type and a digital guru extraordinaire. But it’s the two youngsters in the group– dashing and darling– who will engage the viewer the most.

After a bit of a dry spell, this series is one to look forward to for that hour of after dinner viewing!

C’mon people, still?

Check out the number of views of the YouTube shorts where historian and author Sarah CM Paine punches out a history lesson in spurts of ironic and bell clear words- 2.3 million views, 1.6M, 8.5M.

Who is she? It’s hard to know because, despite her online presence, a Google search generates no profiles written about her. Her Wikipedia page has a new photo above a brief description. Only this to stand up for a long time academic who has penned a respectable number of books.

Granted, this new exposure is due to one person- Dwarkesh Patel. He has hosted and promoted Sarah CM Paine’s material. He gets full credit. And there are pleanty of profiles written on him such as in Time or here.

What a grain elevator could say

The grain elevator was the most ubiquitous commercial building in Minnesota’s small and medium towns during the mid to late 1800s.

In most towns in western Minnesota, grain elevators were the dominant feature of the skyline 1837 Treaty | Minnesota DNR. As railroads expanded westward in the 1870s-1880s, grain elevators sprang up along every railroad line to store wheat and other grains before shipping them to Minneapolis and beyond.

This makes perfect sense given Minnesota’s economy at the time. Wheat farming dominated the landscape, and Red Wing held the title as the world’s largest primary wheat market in 1873, exporting 1.8 million bushels valued at more than two million dollars United States v. Sioux Nation of Indians – Wikipedia. Every town with railroad access needed a grain elevator to collect, store, and load farmers’ harvests onto railcars.

Typically, small services would pop up alongside the tall wooden structures. Or an eating and drinking establishment. Sometimes a church was erected down the road a bit. And for decades, the railroad infrastructure supported a node of activity in remote rural areas.

A shift occurred once the interstate system was established in the 1950s. Rail is still most beneficial for long hauls, whereas trucks carry the grain for shorter distances, typically under one hundred miles. With fewer stops, the isolated wooden elevators fell into disrepair. Often they fell for the useful purpose of serving as a training exercise for local firefighters.

The purpose of this short vignette is to show how land uses are tied intimately with public infrastructure. And these types of projects are engaged over long time frames. A slow natural progression of the property from peak usefulness to decline can be led by aging owners, people who can view themselves in a steady state for another decade or more. The insight for the outside observer to understand where in the process a parcel finds itself. And then to implement policy in relation to the receptive impulses of that moment.

Out with the Mall

In with the residential new construction.

โ€œUtilizing existing infrastructure can bring homes to the market quickly, avoiding some of the delays associated with redevelopment or greenfield housing development,โ€ says Hannah Jones, senior economic research analyst at Realtor.com.ยฎ. “The shift from retail to residential is a logical solution in a country facing a persistent housing shortage.”

She added that malls in suburban states like New Jersey and Floridaโ€”both with well-established commercial corridors and housing pressuresโ€”are especially ripe for this type of redevelopment.

This from Realtor.com.

Avidor apartments abutting a public park in what was Ridgedale Mall parking

Pooch with passion

There was this sweet service dog at the airport the other day. A working dog, they call them, helping their owners overcome a sight impairment or a hearing decline. Emotional support animal designations are often used to help college kids bring their feline friends into the dorm. Itโ€™s the law that pets can skirt the law. If they meet the standard of a group objective, and an opening of access to those with disabilities meets a group desire level need. The puppy with whisky gold hair and large eyes isnโ€™t a private pet but a public support. The pouch is a new thing even if she looks like the same old thing. And hence in this new nature, is tallied up in a different manner.

MN Railroad Fact

Minnesota’s Land Giveaway

Railroads received 9.9 million acres of Minnesota land from the federal governmentโ€”more than the 7.3 million acres claimed by homesteaders between 1862-1880. The Homestead Act’s promise of land for ordinary settlers shifted when railroads got the biggest share. Now itโ€™s difficult for any major infrastructure project to command overarching commitments.

Road Talk

It’s no surprise that the homes abutting a freeway are a bit cheaper than similar homes with a buffer from the noise and hubbub. A recent paper, The Traffic Noise Externality: Costs, Incidence and Policy Implications was clever in using the construction of sound barrier walls to calculate the markets preference for a home protected by the wall versus one that was not.

The authors come up with a figure of 6.8%, which in itself is not as crucial as the acknowledgment that a public goods project, such as erecting a barrier wall, uniformly corrects the imposition of a busy road across a blanket geographic area. There is a market for public goods. A consistent, non-exclusionary response to a public goal reflected in the impassionate exchange of cash for homes.

The impact of the wall’s benefit, or the detriment of a noisy road, is reflected in the nearby neighborhood. There are other impacts resulting from the existence of the road and its location. It allows people to get to jobs. It might be an emergency route to a hospital where people object to the use of sirens. Buses might run off the road and so on. For that reason the net effect of the road is best taken as a package with the ability to divvy out and assess the pro’s and cons as refelcted in the surrounding land values.

To make a jump and try to use changes in house prices to make a meaningful observation of the traffic composition is a stretch. To extrapolate the value of home price change and reflect that back onto individual cars driving down that road, as the authors of The Traffic Noise Externality simply don’t follow me. It seems it would be a categorization problem.

the land let him down

Imagine you write a whole textbook only to find out you were on the wrong track. Five hundred pages establishing rigorous scientific method for geographyโ€”two years of intellectual labor demonstrating that spatial patterns could be analyzed with the same logical precision as physics. And then you look up from your equations and see Baltimore burning, students protesting, urban poverty that your elegant models somehow failed to predict or explain.

David Harvey himself had acknowledged in the book’s preface that he “wrote this book mainly to educate myself,” seeking to understand why his quantitative work kept producing “unpublishable papers.” 1 THE RIGHT TO THE CITY David Harvey He thought the problem was methodological sloppiness. He thought tighter logic and better statistics would solve it.

But standing in the ruins of American cities in the late 1960s, Harvey confronted a different possibility: perhaps the methods weren’t wrong exactly, but they were asking the wrong questions. You can’t model urban crisis without modeling capital. You can’t explain spatial patterns without explaining property. You can’t understand cities without understanding who owns the land and how they acquired it.

The textbook wasn’t falseโ€”it was beside the point. All that careful work distinguishing inductive from deductive inference, all those chapters on probability theory and classification systems, and somehow he’d managed to write 500 pages about space while avoiding the one thing that actually organizes space: value.

By 1973, Harvey had become a Marxist. The shift wasn’t a rejection of rigorโ€”it was a recognition that methodological precision without political economy is like having perfect instruments for measuring shadows while ignoring what casts them.

“Explanation in Geography” remains a landmark. But it’s a landmark of a particular kind: a monument to what you can accomplish while carefully, meticulously, rigorously avoiding the most important question.

Does the land still have something to say?

Discovering New Voices

One of the great rewards of reading broadly is encountering thinkers who challenge our assumptions in unexpected ways. John Cassidy’s new book Capitalism and Its Critics serves as an excellent gateway to such voicesโ€”including Silvia Federici, whose work I encountered for the first time through his analysis.

Federici builds upon Marx’s foundation while charting her own critical path. Like Marx, she argues that capitalism fundamentally depends on one group exploiting another’s laborโ€”but she expands this critique beyond the traditional worker-owner dynamic. Her distinctive contribution lies in highlighting how capitalism systematically devalues and invisibilizes reproductive labor, particularly the unpaid work of mothers and caregivers.

Her proposed solutionโ€”direct payment for domestic and care workโ€”has sparked both organizing efforts among women’s networks and genuine debate about the nature of care itself. There’s an inherent tension here: while some forms of labor may be best performed voluntarily rather than as market transactions, this doesn’t negate their immense economic and social value.

This raises a crucial point that transcends ideological boundaries: regardless of whether we embrace Federici’s specific remedies, her core insight about the systematic undervaluing of reproductive labor demands serious consideration. The work of raising children, maintaining households, and caring for family members provides enormous value to societyโ€”value that our current economic frameworks struggle to recognize or measure adequately.

In exploring these ideas, Federici reminds us that the most interesting economic critics aren’t just those who diagnose capitalism’s failures, but those who help us see the invisible foundations upon which the entire system rests.

What is Private, What is Public Eastern block home edition

Those of you who follow this site know that we view the boundary between public and private as fundamentally a matter of choice. Bridges can be privately owned and charge tolls, but they more commonly become part of public transportation infrastructure. These decisions about what remains public versus private are often driven by considerations of efficiency and practical management. It was fascinating, then, to recently discover that following the collapse of communism in 1989, one of the most immediate and sweeping divestitures involved housing itself. Here’s that remarkable story.

The Great Housing Transfer: Eastern Europe’s Post-1989 Privatization Revolution
The collapse of state socialism in Eastern Europe triggered one of history’s largest transfers of public wealth to private hands through housing privatization. Between 1990 and the early 2000s, millions of state-owned apartments were sold to sitting tenants at deeply discounted prices, fundamentally reshaping the region’s housing landscape and creating lasting economic and social consequences.
From State Monopoly to Private Ownership
Under communist rule, Eastern European countries maintained near-total state control over housing. In most countries, 80-90% of urban housing stock was publicly owned, with the state serving as both landlord and developer. This represented one of the most comprehensive public housing systems in modern history, housing the majority of urban populations across the Soviet sphere.
The transition was dramatic and swift. Following the privatisation of state-owned housing in the transition to a market economy in the early 1990s, CEE countries now record some of the highest homeownership rates in the OECD, with over 70% of households owning their home outright. Countries like Hungary, Slovakia, and the Czech Republic saw homeownership rates soar from under 20% to over 80% within a single decade.
The Titling Process: Converting Tenants to Owners
The privatization process varied by country but followed similar patterns. Most governments opted for “sitting tenant” sales, offering apartments directly to current occupants rather than through open markets. The privatization policy of the 1990s aimed to make the sitting tenants owners of their rented flats, by offering 70โ€“90 per cent discounts on the price of the houses and flats.
The legal titling process was often complex, requiring new property registries and cadastral systems. Many countries had to create entirely new frameworks for private property ownership, having operated under state control for decades. Voucher systems were also employed, where citizens were given or could inexpensively buy a book of vouchers that represent potential shares in any state-owned company, though these were more commonly used for enterprise privatization than housing.
The Value Transfer: A Massive Subsidy
The financial scale of these transfers was enormous. With discounts typically ranging from 70-90% below estimated market value, the programs represented massive implicit subsidies to sitting tenants. In Hungary alone, the value transfer has been estimated at several billion dollars in current terms. The Czech Republic’s privatization program transferred approximately 1.2 million units, representing roughly one-third of the entire national housing stock.
These discounts were justified as compensation for years of poor maintenance and recognition of tenants’ de facto investment in their homes through decades of occupancy. However, the beneficiaries were not necessarily the neediestโ€”middle-class professionals and party officials often lived in the most desirable state housing and captured the largest windfall gains.
Lingering Effects: Winners, Losers, and Market Distortions
The privatization legacy continues to shape Eastern European housing markets today. The dramatic shift to homeownership created several persistent challenges:
Market Thinness: The formal rental market is generally thin and underdeveloped โ€” only in the Czech Republic is the rental market home to more than 15% of households (19%). This limits labor mobility and creates barriers for young people entering housing markets.
Quality Degradation: Multi-apartment buildings dominate the housing stock, many built during the communist period. As a result, the stock is ageing and of poor quality. Most households cannot afford to maintain or upgrade their dwellings according to environmental requirements. The mass transfer of maintenance responsibilities to individual owners without corresponding financial capacity has led to widespread deterioration.
Social Housing Shortage: The social housing supply in most CEE countries is well below the OECD average, with the exception of Poland and Slovenia. The elimination of public housing left a gap in affordable housing provision that has never been adequately filled.
Inequality Effects: The privatization created a new form of wealth inequality, where accident of residential location in 1989 determined lifetime wealth accumulation. Urban professionals gained valuable assets, while rural residents and those in less desirable locations received minimal benefits.
The Eastern European housing privatization represents both a remarkable success in creating a property-owning democracy and a cautionary tale about the unintended consequences of rapid large-scale privatization. Three decades later, the region continues to grapple with the market distortions and social challenges created by this unprecedented transfer of public wealth to private hands.

Deep Cover- Movie Review

Iโ€™m usually critical of comedies, but I can recommend this one. Deep Cover follows three characters who meet in an improv class and gradually get pulled deeper into the street drug network, all under the guidance of an undercover cop. Orlando Bloom plays a manic actor-artist, Bryce Dallas Howard embodies the sharp-tongued former head girl turned mom-coach, and Nick Mohammed takes the brunt of the square punchlines.

But the story isnโ€™t just about comedyโ€”itโ€™s about self-discovery. Each character is searching for a way forward in life, and the chance to step into another world allows them to see themselves from a fresh perspective. Itโ€™s the classic tension: the difficulty of truly facing oneself. Through improv, they begin to uncover truths about their own lives and the people around them.

Of course, the act of going โ€œundercoverโ€ soon feels too real, and while theyโ€™re tempted to bail out, each turn forces them to go deeper. That push-and-pull creates both the comedy and the revelatory moments. By the end, they find their way back to the safety of their old worldโ€”bruised, a little wiser, and leaving the audience thoroughly amused.

Follow up on European homeownership rates

Taken from todayโ€™s Bloomberg letter.

Thereโ€™s a noticeable trend where countries with higher state capacityโ€”broadly understood as the ability of a government to effectively implement policies, provide public services, and maintain robust institutionsโ€”tend to have lower homeownership rates. This pattern, while not absolute, holds across several key countries when examining the most recent data (2023โ€“2024, primarily from Statista and Eurostat).

Want a Ride?

One thing to note if you are planning a trip to Denmark is that you can rely on public transportation with confidence. In Denmark, this covers trains, commuter rail, metro, buses, and the availability of bike lanes (of which there are shockingly many). Just because it is said that a bus will be at a certain place at a certain time, it does not always mean that it will be there. And if you are in a foreign place, you don’t have the background to think, Don’t worry, the E11 always runs a little late.

Cutting back on concerns is essential when you are on a trip. They are time-consuming. They make you rethink your plans. They drain the fun out of the adventure. And maybe they are the best way to judge the efficacy of a provided service.

In Denmark, all metro, commuter trains, and inter-city trains are accessible via an app. It’s straightforward and easy to use. You can book as you stand on the track. The bus schedules are also available electronically and at each stop. On board, the screens display the time, stops, and the time of arrival at each stop, among other information. A subdued Scandinavian kerfluffle of concern arose on one trip as the wagon had to stop at the central station and not continue as planned to the airport. There was an instant sharing of information among riders to ensure everyone was in the know.

Rail infrastructure is present across the country, whose land mass is only a fifth the size of Minnesota, but whose citizenry is very similar. With the main corridors of population running between the higher-density areas, it is not surprising (in a way) that rail can be the dominant form of transportation. In an area like the northern tip of Jutland, where the rail network is limited, buses take over. As far as I could tell, most of the towns enjoyed regular daily service.

If you are making travel plans from afar, it’s significant to know that not only are the towns, cities, and hamlets accessible, but they are reliably and frequently visited. You might have a UNESCO-rated Viking archaeological site on your list of must-sees, and you know you don’t have to rent a car to reach it. Nor do you have to fudge in extra time if your timing is off in such a way as to miss the one bus that goes through the area. A traveler doesn’t worry about contingency plans or estimate the risk of not having transportation.

Renting a car is possible, but it’s expensive, costing $60-$90 per day. And then you have to pay for gas and parking. A one-hour bus ride up to Lokken, a beach town on the North Sea, costs DK94, or just under $15 โ€”seriously.

Lastly, you will find that the vehicles themselves are well-kept and clean. School children, teens, and adults of all ages trundle on and off them with noticeable familiarity. No need to fear being laughed at or judged for not following any particular protocol. Everyone is simply going about their day. Using the extremely reliable, well-networked, optimally supplied sources of transportation that their governing body chooses to provide with a substantial subsidy.

Great architecture in Denmark

Aarhus City Hall, a classic of Danish Scandinavian Modernism, was designed by Arne Jacobsen and Erik Mรธller and completed in 1941, replacing an older, medieval city hall. A competition was held in 1937 to replace the increasingly insufficient town hall from the mid-19th century, leading to Jacobsen and Mรธller’s winning, intentionally unmonumental design. However, after public and political requests, a towering clock tower was added, and construction continued despite the German occupation of Denmark during World War II, making the finished building a symbol of democratic governance during that time.

When asked about Polanyi’s Double Movement- Claude said:

Polanyi’s Double Movement and the Evolution of Economic Thought

The Household Foundation โ€ข Original containment: In household economies, the tension between acquisition (growth, accumulation) and protection (equitable distribution, waste prevention) operates within manageable, face-to-face relationships โ€ข Natural limits: Family/clan structures provide built-in mechanisms for both encouraging productive activity and preventing destructive excess โ€ข Embedded economics: Economic activity remains subordinated to social relationships and moral obligations

The Great Transformation: Market Economy Emergence โ€ข Dis-embedding: Economic activity becomes separated from social relationships and moral constraints โ€ข Fictitious commodities: Land, labor, and money become treated as market commodities despite not being produced for sale โ€ข Double movement emergence: Society’s protective response to market fundamentalism becomes institutionalized

Evolutionary Responses in Economic Thought

Adam Smith (1776) โ€ข Market optimism: Invisible hand suggests self-interest can serve social good โ€ข Early recognition: Acknowledged moral sentiments and social bonds as necessary counterweights โ€ข Household parallel: Like family moral economy, broader society needs ethical framework alongside market mechanisms

Karl Marx (1867) โ€ข Protective critique: Exposed capitalism’s tendency toward crisis and worker exploitation โ€ข Systemic analysis: Showed how market expansion undermines its own foundations through overproduction and underconsumption โ€ข Double movement insight: Predicted capitalism would generate its own contradictions requiring protective responses

ร‰mile Durkheim (1893) โ€ข Social solidarity: Distinguished mechanical (traditional) from organic (modern) solidarity โ€ข Integration challenge: Modern division of labor requires new forms of social cohesion โ€ข Protective institutions: Professional associations and moral regulation needed to prevent anomie

Rosa Luxemburg (1913) โ€ข Accumulation limits: Capitalism requires constant expansion into non-capitalist areas โ€ข Imperial protection: Advanced economies use state power to secure markets and resources โ€ข Global household: Imperial expansion recreates household-like extraction relationships on world scale

John Maynard Keynes (1936) โ€ข Market failure recognition: Markets alone cannot ensure full employment or stability โ€ข State intervention: Government must provide protective functions through fiscal and monetary policy โ€ข Embedded liberalism: Markets need social and political frameworks to function sustainably

Friedrich Hayek (1944) โ€ข Spontaneous order: Complex economies require market coordination beyond human planning capacity โ€ข Anti-protection warning: Government intervention threatens individual freedom and economic efficiency โ€ข Market fundamentalism: Pure market logic as protection against totalitarian planning

Contemporary Double Movement Tensions

Neoliberal Expansion (1980s-2008) โ€ข Market fundamentalism: Hayek’s vision implemented globally through deregulation and privatization โ€ข Household disruption: Traditional protective mechanisms (unions, welfare states, community institutions) weakened โ€ข Global reach: Market logic penetrates previously protected spheres (education, healthcare, environment)

Protective Responses (2008-present) โ€ข Financial crisis: Market failure triggers protective interventions (bailouts, regulation) โ€ข Populist movements: Political responses to economic dislocation and inequality โ€ข Environmental limits: Climate change forces recognition of growth’s destructive potential โ€ข Digital economy: New forms of commodification (data, attention) generate protective responses

Synthesis: The Persistent Tension

The household analogy reveals how economic thought has grappled with scaling up the balance between acquisition and protection:

โ€ข Smith to Marx: Recognition that market expansion requires moral/social counterweights โ€ข Durkheim to Keynes: Development of institutional mechanisms for social protection โ€ข Hayek’s challenge: Market efficiency versus social protection trade-offs โ€ข Contemporary crisis: Global markets outpacing protective institutions’ capacity

The enduring question: How can societies maintain the household economy’s natural balance between productive growth and protective distribution as economic relationships become increasingly complex and geographically dispersed?

In the beginning

The term โ€œeconomicsโ€ comes from the ancient Greek word oikonomia, which translates to โ€œmanagement of the householdโ€ (oikos meaning โ€œhouseโ€ and nomos meaning โ€œlawโ€ or โ€œmanagementโ€). In ancient Greece, thinkers like Xenophon and Aristotle discussed economics in the context of managing household resources, including property, agriculture, and labor, to ensure the well-being of the family unit. This was a practical concept focused on efficiency and resource allocation within the home or estate, rather than the broader market-based systems we associate with economics today.

The word economics evolved from its original Greek meaning of โ€œhousehold managementโ€ (oikonomia) to a broader concept over centuries, with key shifts occurring as societies and intellectual thought developed. Hereโ€™s a concise overview of when and how this transformation happened:

โ€ข Ancient Greece (4thโ€“5th Century BCE): As you noted, oikonomia referred to managing household resources, as discussed by thinkers like Xenophon and Aristotle. It focused on practical matters like agriculture, trade within the estate, and family welfare, with some extension to city-state (polis) administration.

โ€ข Medieval and Early Modern Periods (5thโ€“17th Century): The concept remained tied to household or estate management in feudal Europe, but as commerce and trade grew, thinkers began applying similar principles to larger entities like manors or small states. The term wasnโ€™t yet used for broader societal systems, but mercantilist ideas (1500sโ€“1700s) started focusing on national wealth and trade, laying groundwork for a wider scope.

โ€ข 18th Century โ€“ Enlightenment and Classical Economics: The shift to a broader meaning took shape during the Enlightenment. In 1776, Adam Smithโ€™s The Wealth of Nations marked a pivotal moment, redefining economics as the study of wealth creation, distribution, and consumption across societies. Smith and contemporaries like David Ricardo moved the focus from households to markets, trade, and national economies, emphasizing concepts like division of labor and free markets.

โ€ข 19th Century โ€“ Formalization of Economics: By the 1800s, economics solidified as a discipline studying societal resource allocation. Thinkers like John Stuart Mill and Karl Marx expanded its scope to include production, labor, and capital on a national and global scale. The term political economy was often used, reflecting its focus on state and societal systems.

โ€ข Late 19thโ€“Early 20th Century โ€“ Modern Economics: The marginalist revolution (1870s) and the work of economists like Alfred Marshall further abstracted economics into a science of human behavior, choices, and resource scarcity. Marshallโ€™s 1890 book Principles of Economics popularized the term โ€œeconomicsโ€ over โ€œpolitical economy,โ€ cementing its modern, broad meaning as the study of how societies allocate scarce resources.

But letโ€™s not forget about the distinction of political economyโ€”

The term political economy played a crucial role in the evolution of the word economics from its original Greek meaning of โ€œhousehold managementโ€ (oikonomia) to its modern, broader sense. Hereโ€™s how political economy fits into the sequence, building on the earlier discussion:

โ€ข Ancient Roots (4thโ€“5th Century BCE): As mentioned, oikonomia in ancient Greece referred to household or estate management, with some application to city-state governance (e.g., Aristotleโ€™s discussions of resource allocation in the polis). This laid the groundwork for thinking about resource management beyond the household, but the term political economy didnโ€™t exist yet.

โ€ข Medieval and Early Modern Periods (5thโ€“17th Century): During this time, economic thought was still largely tied to household or feudal estate management, but as trade and mercantilism grew, scholars began applying resource management principles to larger entities like states. The term political economy emerged in the early 17th century, particularly with works like Antoine de Montchrestienโ€™s 1615 Traictรฉ de lโ€™oeconomie politique, which explicitly used the term to describe the management of state resources and wealth. Here, โ€œpoliticalโ€ referred to the polis or state, extending oikonomia to national governance, trade, and wealth accumulation (e.g., mercantilist policies focused on state power and gold reserves).

โ€ข 18th Century โ€“ Enlightenment and Rise of Political Economy: The term political economy became prominent during the Enlightenment as thinkers like Adam Smith, David Hume, and the French Physiocrats (e.g., Franรงois Quesnay) analyzed wealth, trade, and production at a societal level. In 1776, Smithโ€™s The Wealth of Nations used political economy to describe the study of how nations generate and distribute wealth, focusing on markets, labor, and trade policies. This marked a clear shift from household management to the broader study of economic systems influenced by government policies, laws, and institutions. Political economy was the dominant term for what we now call economics during this period.

โ€ข 19th Century โ€“ Peak and Transition of Political Economy: In the early 1800s, political economy was the standard term for the discipline, as seen in the works of David Ricardo, John Stuart Mill, and Karl Marx. It encompassed the study of production, distribution, and consumption, often with a focus on how political structures (e.g., class systems, government policies) shaped economic outcomes. For example, Marxโ€™s critique of capitalism in Das Kapital (1867) was framed as a work of political economy, analyzing economic systems through the lens of power and class dynamics. However, by the mid-to-late 19th century, the term began to be seen as too narrow, as it emphasized political and social factors over emerging scientific approaches to resource allocation.

โ€ข Late 19thโ€“Early 20th Century โ€“ Shift to โ€œEconomicsโ€: The marginalist revolution (1870s), led by economists like William Stanley Jevons, Carl Menger, and Lรฉon Walras, shifted the focus to individual choices, marginal utility, and mathematical models of resource scarcity. Alfred Marshallโ€™s Principles of Economics (1890) popularized the term economics as a more neutral, scientific label, dropping the โ€œpoliticalโ€ to emphasize the study of universal principles of resource allocation across societies. Political economy began to be seen as a subfield, focusing on the interplay of politics and economics (e.g., trade policies, labor laws), while economics became the broader discipline.

In summary, political economy emerged in the 17th century as an extension of oikonomia to state-level resource management, became the dominant term for economic thought in the 18th and early 19th centuries, and bridged the gap between household-focused economics and the modern, abstract science of economics. By the late 19th century, economics overtook political economy as the broader term, with political economy now often referring to a specific lens within economics that examines the role of political institutions and power in economic systems.

Is it politics? Is it the economy? Or is it some mix of the two?

Veblenโ€™s pecuniary obsession

Thorstein Veblen, the Norwegian-American economist raised in rural Minnesota, left an indelible mark on social theory with his 1899 classic, The Theory of the Leisure Class. In that book alone, he wielded the term โ€œpecuniaryโ€ over 200 times, hammering home his critique of money-driven motives in society. Makes you wonder: was Veblen subtly arguing that transactions fueled chiefly by monetary incentives carry a distinct, perhaps colder essenceโ€”diverging sharply from exchanges rooted in social bonds, reciprocity, or community welfare?

The economics of Kronborg Castle

Sureโ€” you knew that Kronborg Castle, on the NE tip of Zealand in Denmark, was the setting inspiration for Shakespeare, in Hamlet.

Moat, entrance,stables and Kronborg Castle

But did you realize its raison dโ€™etre is an economic story?

See that short distance from the edge of the ramparts to the coast afar? Thatโ€™s a narrow straitโ€” perfect for tax collection.

Kronborg Castle was constructed by Denmark to enforce the collection of “Sound Dues,” a tariff levied on all ships passing through the ร˜resund strait between Denmark and Sweden.

The castle’s cannons ensured that vessels complied, generating significant revenue for the Danish Crown for over 400 years. 

Kronborg and the Sound Dues

  • Strategic location: In the 1420s, King Eric VII of Denmark built a fortress named Krogen on the site of present-day Kronborg. The castle was strategically positioned on the narrowest point of the ร˜resund, which at just 4 kilometers (2.5 miles) wide, served as a crucial entryway to and from the Baltic Sea.
  • Enforcement of tariffs: The castle and its formidable cannons guaranteed that all commercial ships entering or leaving the Baltic paid the Sound Dues.
  • Revenue generation: For centuries, the Sound Dues were a main source of income for the Danish royals, funding not only the maintenance of the castle but also covering a significant portion of Denmark’s state income.
  • Preventing fraud: To prevent ships’ captains from undervaluing their cargo to lower the tariff, the Danish king could exercise the right to buy the entire cargo for the value stated.
  • Upgraded fortress: In the mid-1500s, King Frederick II radically expanded and rebuilt the fortress into the lavish Renaissance castle known today as Kronborg. The project was almost entirely funded by the Sound Dues.ย 

Market Failure was used as the signal– but what now?

In days of yore, there was the market and the state. Two separate spheres of activity coexisted. And when private industry did not come through for the people, in the way they thought it should, market failure was the name given to assign blame. When the market failed, it was up to the state to address the lack of supply in areas such as medical care, poverty alleviation, housing, and the like.

One of economist Tyler Cowen’s first books addresses this trigger for state action in a compilation of thoughts on The Theory of Market Failure: A Critical Examination. But he isn’t convinced. He seems to say that when you look so closely at a tiny segment of a large system, you don’t see anything at all.

Consider externalities, a key signal that the market is merely pushing a problem onto some unsuspecting observer. He claims that (nearly) every single transaction has a positive or negative external effect. And, if you think about it, it’s true. We are social creatures. Although many consumptions are deeply personal, in the end, we always touch the lives of others.

The scope of the externalities/nonexcludability issue is vast. Nearly every concern of economic policy, from environmental considerations to research and development, involves externality problems. No one would claim that every instance of an externality warrants state intervention. There is no doubt, however, that the existence of externalities is one of the most powerful arguments for public sector involvement in the provision of public goods.

This isn’t the proper trigger for government intervention.

What about when the price seems too high, as in housing, or too low, as in wages? Whether a good is mediated through the private or public sector, prices still carry the most valuable form of comparative value information.

As noted earlier, the theory of public goods and externalities implies that if a good is characterized by nonrivalrous consumption, allowing additional individuals to consume it entails zero marginal cost. Demsetz’s arguments (1964; 1970) imply that this is only true in the presence of perfect information. Otherwise, allowing additional individuals to consume a good free of charge results in the abandonment of the price system in that sphere of activity. Since the publication of Hayek 1945, the role of prices in communicating information has been well known. In the provision of public goods as well as private goods, sacrificing such information may entail significant costs.

Prices are the most critical form of encapsulation of what groups of exchangers say about an exchange. We may not always conduct a thorough analysis of prices. That might be where the problem lies.

For instance, the exchange might be telling something vital about a group of people that others are simply not attuned to. People join various clubs throughout their lives. And these associations create structures of value.

The next two selections in section 2 of this volume discuss the nature of local public goods. Because such goods, by definition, can be provided to only a segment of a nation or community, determining which individuals will receive them becomes part of the economic problem. Once club or community membership becomes endogenous, many of Samuelson’s conclusions do not hold.

When people leave or join a club, when they exit or stay loyal, they impact how much of a surcharge the group of people in the club can charge.

The Tiebout model avoids the preference revelation problem; an individual’s preferences are revealed by his choice of location. It also avoids the free-rider problem; those who choose to belong to a given community are subject to the taxes or user fรฉes that finance the provision of goods. Nor is pricing inefficiency a problem. If an individual is inefficiently excluded from the use of a public good or service, he can simply move to a community where that exclusion is not practiced.

The introduction written by Tyler Cowen is comprehensive. To the engaged observer, he dispels the dichotomy between industry and the state. There’s something pluristic out there. It’s big, messy, and complicated. It dovetails into many of the things people talk about under the titular of institutions. But it has structure– once you stand back and take a look.

That’s the project of the moment: a unified theory of price.

Market Design: For the Group or for the Individual?

We often think of markets as the ultimate expression of individual freedomโ€”buy what you want, sell what you have, let prices sort everything out. But look closer at some of the most important markets in our economy, and you’ll notice something curious: they don’t work that way at all.

Take spectrum auctions. When the government sells radio frequencies, they don’t just post a “For Sale” sign and take the highest bidder. Instead, they craft elaborate auction mechanisms with complex bidding rules, eligibility requirements, and payment structures. Why? Because the goal isn’t just to make a saleโ€”it’s to maximize revenue for taxpayers and ensure efficient allocation of a scarce public resource.

Or consider medical residency matching. Before the current system, medical students and hospitals engaged in an increasingly frantic and early scramble for positions that left everyone worse off. Now, students submit ranked preference lists, hospitals do the same, and an algorithm produces matches that no student-hospital pair would want to trade away from. Individual students might not get their first choice, but the system as a whole works better for everyone.

These aren’t broken markets that need fixingโ€”they’re markets deliberately designed to serve collective goals while still respecting individual preferences. And they represent a fascinating middle ground.

The Pattern Emerges

Look across the landscape of market design and you’ll see the same pattern everywhere:

Electricity markets must ensure grid reliability and efficient dispatch while still letting generators and consumers pursue profit and savings. Emissions trading systems must hit environmental targets while allowing companies to minimize their compliance costs. Kidney exchange networks must save as many lives as possible while respecting individual donor and recipient preferences.

In each case, there’s a collective goal that mattersโ€”revenue maximization, system stability, environmental protection, saving livesโ€”but also individual participants who won’t play unless they can pursue their own interests.

The Design Challenge

This creates a fascinating design challenge. How do you interpret a market that serves group goals while still harnessing individual incentives? The answer lies in the mechanisms that align private interests with public purposes.

Traditional markets work through the “invisible hand”โ€”individual optimization magically leads to collective benefit. But in these designed markets, there’s a very visible hand carefully crafting the rules to ensure that what’s good for individuals adds up to what’s good for the group. The group is the primary competitive player.

A New Taxonomy

Perhaps we need to think about markets along a spectrum. On one end are pure private optimization marketsโ€”commodity exchanges, stock markets, your local farmer’s market. Here, individual pursuit of profit and value drives everything, and collective benefit emerges as a byproduct.

On the other end are what we might call “group-goal-constrained markets”โ€”auctions, matching systems, environmental markets. Here, collective objectives take priority in the design, but individual incentives are carefully preserved and channeled toward those broader goals.

This isn’t about eliminating private goals or replacing markets with central planning. It’s about designing institutions that make private and public interests align. The medical student still wants a good residency. The electricity generator still wants profit. The polluting company still wants to minimize costs. But the market structure ensures these individual pursuits nod up to group purposes.

The Future of Markets

As our economy becomes more complex and interconnected, we increasingly need markets that can serve collective purposes while still harnessing individual incentives. Climate change, healthcare allocation, urban planning, financial stabilityโ€”these challenges require coordination at a scale.

Market design offers a path forward: not the heavy hand of government control. We’re learning to interpret markets that work for everyone precisely because they’re designed to balance what individuals want with what society needs.

The invisible hand was never really invisibleโ€”it was just poorly understood. Now we’re learning to make it work more deliberately, and that might be exactly what our complex world requires.

Tolstoy, and the X side of warfare

A topic under examination that runs through War and Peace is the analysis of warfare. What were the keys to Napoleonโ€™s success? The size of the army, or the genius of the man? Or something else.

In Part 15, chapter II Tolstoys starts us we thinking in terms of individual agents.

ONE OF THE MOSt conspicuous and advantageous departures from the so-called rules of warfare is the independent action of men acting separately against men huddled together in a mass. Such independent activity is always seen in a war that assumes a national character.

The author then tells us the accepted view is that it is about counting soldiers, guns, and supplies.

Military science assumes that the relative strength of forces is identical with their numerical proportions. Military science maintains that the greater the number of soldiers, the greater their strength.

Butโ€ฆ

Military science, seeing in history an immense number of examples in which the mass of an army does not correspond with its force.

And thus Tolstoy suggests there is something else. He wants to be scientific about this thing. He calls it X.

One has but to renounce the false view that glorifies the effect of the activity of the heroes of history in warfare in order to discover this unknown quantity, x.

X is the spirit of the army, the greater or less desire to fight and to face dangers on the part of all the men composing the army, which is quite apart from the question whether they are fighting under leaders of genius or not, with cudgel or with guns that fire thirty times a minute.

It seems that what is important here is that soldiering with X is something different than soldiering in general. To fulfill a duty with X is not the same as a run-of-the-mill fulfillment of the same task. It does not quantify in the same way or lead to the same results. Labor with a purpose or a shared ambition deserves a subscript of x.

Unit Oneโ€” Series Review

This Scandi noir cop series from 2000 features a strong cast and solid plotlines. But thatโ€™s not what makes it interesting. The special investigation team works out of a mobile trailer, which travels to the location of the crime. Any travel enthusiast will appreciate the insights into towns, villages, and the larger cities all over Denmark. A viewer might even take to referring to Google Maps at the start of each episode as the investigation becomes apparent.

The changing roles of women and household composition also thread through the background of each episode. It’s hard to remember that it was a big deal for a woman to be made head of the homicide unit just twenty-five years ago. Whether in conjunction with women’s advancements or not, the flagrant mate swapping verges on humorous. There are absolutely no traditional family structures. Flirtations and infidelities and reunifications are the going thing.

Control price, Property will degrade to reflect change

Territory-Watersheds for Insurance

In the context of car insurance pricing, a territory is a geographic area defined by insurers to group locations with similar risk profiles for setting premiums. Territories are typically defined using the following methods and delineators:

1. ZIP Codes: The most common delineator, as ZIP codes provide a standardized way to segment areas based on localized risk factors like accident rates, crime statistics, and claim frequency. Insurers may use individual ZIP codes or aggregate them into larger territories. [2] [16] [19]

2. Custom Territories: Insurers may create their own territories by combining ZIP codes, counties, cities, or townships into broader zones. These are designed to reflect similar loss experiences, traffic patterns, or demographic characteristics. For example, multiple adjacent ZIP codes with comparable risk may be grouped into one territory. [11] [13] [14]

3. Census Block Groups: For more granular analysis, some insurers use census block groups (small areas with 600-2,000 people) to define territories. These allow for precise risk assessment in densely populated or diverse areas. [16] [19]

4. State-Regulated Territories: Some states impose rules on how territories are defined. For instance, Connecticut uses 18 predefined territories, while California requires territories to be at least 20 square miles and prohibits single-ZIP code territories to ensure fairness and avoid overly specific pricing. [13] [14]

5. Geocoding: Insurers use geocoding tools to map a vehicleโ€™s primary garaging address (where itโ€™s parked most often) to precise coordinates, ensuring accurate assignment to a territory. This helps account for variations within larger geographic units. [18]

Territories are defined based on data like accident frequency, vehicle theft rates, vandalism, weather risks, traffic density, and claims history, which help insurers assess the likelihood and cost of claims in a given area. The boundaries are set to balance statistical homogeneity with practical considerations like regulatory compliance and administrative simplicity.

State Fair Season

With nearly 500 food items, 30 carnival rides, and more than 900 free performances, there’s plenty to keep you busy throughout the Minnesota State Fair‘s 12-day run. 

Itโ€™s a thing here in Minnesota. All walks of life mingle through the entrance gates in Falcon Heights. Check out the one day attendance record.

The Brief

    • The Minnesota State Fair saw its first record-breaking attendance day so far this year.
    • On Monday, 145,022 people were recorded attending the fair.
    • This breaks the previous record of 144,504 people set in 2017.

The cost of uncertainty

I showed a house this week in a modest but well-situated neighborhood. It had some problems, but mostly superficial– carpet, paint, appliances, and the like. Yet, even at a price below the comparable sales, it remains on the market. What? Uncertainty.

The property has been through a foreclosure, and as the tax records show, the bank holding the paper, Midfirst Bank, repurchased it. But this is a murky ownership situation.

At a sheriffโ€™s sale, the buyer is not immediately given a full and clear ownership title the way they would in a normal real estate closing. Instead, the buyer typically receives one of two legal instruments depending on the state:

  1. Sheriffโ€™s Certificate of Sale (common in states like Minnesota)
    • This document shows that the buyer purchased the property at the sheriffโ€™s sale.
    • It is not a deed and does not yet transfer full title.
    • The original owner still has a redemption period (often 6โ€“12 months, depending on the type of property and state law) to pay off the debt and reclaim the property.
  2. Sheriffโ€™s Deed
    • If the redemption period expires without the former owner redeeming the property, the sheriffโ€™s certificate is converted into a sheriffโ€™s deed (sometimes automatically, sometimes requiring a filing).
    • The sheriffโ€™s deed conveys whatever interest the debtor had in the property to the buyer, but it usually comes without warranties of clear title. That means the buyer takes the property subject to existing liens, unpaid taxes, or other encumbrances, unless state law says otherwise.

The property is being marketed by the owner who went through foreclosure, even though their right to the property is only through redemption. They would have to find a buyer to settle the full amount owed to Midfirst. This middle-ground ownership area makes the market uneasy. What if the bank wants more than the sheriff’s sale for fees and expenses? What if the property’s condition deteriorates between the offer and closing? Who will handle the repair? Will the title transfer be handled properly in the end?

Minnesota’s foreclosure rate is very low at one-half of one percent of the housing stock. So these sales are rare, and an investor will undoubtedly find it worthwhile to take on as a project. But in areas with insecure property rights and poor banking relations, the surcharge for uncertainty carries a hefty surcharge.

New Construction Update

Twice a year, builders in the Twin Cities Metro (and beyond) open up their model homes in an organized event to bring potential buyers out to browse.

More than 300 new homes in the Twin Cities and Rochester will be on display as part of the 2025 Fall Parade of Homes, according to Housing First Minnesota.

The event โ€” which runs Fridays through Sundays from Sept. 5 through Sept. 28 โ€” features homes built by 76 builders in 76 cities. Home prices range from $299,900 to more than $3 million.

Also planned is the Remodelers Showcase, which will be open on the final weekend of the tour. The showcase will feature 32 โ€œhome transformations,โ€ including one remodeled โ€œDream Homeโ€ in Excelsior, according to Housing First Minnesota. (Finance and Commerce)

A lot of folks are window shopping. Builders pay designers to select the best paint colors and tile selections. It’s interesting to see if builders are betting on a new floor plan. Some years, the appliance styles make a dramatic switch, like going from stainless to white. People are curious. People are making plans for their own home improvements.

And some people really will build that brand new home they’ve always wanted.

The Public and The Private- electric edition

From Your Home to the Grid: Who Owns and Operates the Power System

When you pay your monthly electric bill, youโ€™re acting as a private consumer in the electricity market. To you, the relationship looks simple: you use electricity in your home, and you pay your local provider for it. But behind the walls of your house is a layered system of ownership and responsibilityโ€”households, retail providers, wholesale markets, and the grid itselfโ€”all working together to keep the lights on.

Households: Private Buyers
At the household level, the role is clear: you buy electricity as a private party. You donโ€™t own the power lines in your yard, the substation down the road, or the generating plant hundreds of miles away. Your responsibility begins and ends at the point where electricity enters your home. Your choice in the matter is limitedโ€”most households donโ€™t pick their provider directly, unless they live in a state with retail competition. Still, you form judgments about reliability and cost, and those perceptions influence how you view your communityโ€™s services overall.

Retail Providers: Local Operators
Your local utilityโ€”the company whose name is on your billโ€”owns and maintains the distribution network that connects households to the grid. These companies come in different forms:

  • Investor-owned utilities (IOUs): Private corporations accountable to shareholders but regulated by state commissions.
  • Municipal utilities: City-owned providers accountable to residents through local government.
  • Rural cooperatives: Member-owned organizations governed democratically by the people they serve.

Each owns the poles, wires, transformers, and meters in their service area. Their job is to ensure safe, reliable delivery of power to your home, while also balancing infrastructure costs with customer affordability.

Generators and the Wholesale Market
The electricity itself originates with power plant ownersโ€”companies that run gas plants, wind farms, solar arrays, hydro dams, or nuclear stations. They sell their output into regional wholesale markets. Ownership here is diverse: it may be a private energy company, a public authority, or an independent producer. Retail utilities buy from these generators, sometimes through long-term contracts, other times through daily market transactions.

The Grid: Shared Infrastructure
The โ€œgridโ€ refers to the transmission network that carries bulk electricity over long distances. Ownership here is shared, too. High-voltage lines and substations are owned by transmission companies, often subsidiaries of investor-owned utilities. Oversight and coordination, however, rest with regional transmission organizations (RTOs) or independent system operators (ISOs). These bodies donโ€™t own the lines; they operate them, ensuring the system is balanced and fair access is maintained.

Above them, the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) provides national oversight, while state commissions regulate local distribution and retail rates. In this sense, the grid is a patchwork of physical assets owned by many companies, but coordinated as a single machine for reliability.

A Householdโ€™s Place in the System
So, while your home participates as a private buyer, every other levelโ€”local utilities, generators, transmission owners, and grid operatorsโ€”has its own structure of ownership and accountability. The result is a complex but interdependent chain: private households at the end, backed by local, corporate, cooperative, and government players. Each layer has different incentives, but all share the responsibility of ensuring that when you flip a switch, the power is there.

Zap

Utility flagging for underground cables

If youโ€™ve ever had to dig in your yard, you know the first step is to call the power company. Before a shovel hits the dirt, utility crews mark the lawn with a rainbow of little flags, showing where buried lines and cables run. Those markers are a reminder that beneath every property lies a web of infrastructure you donโ€™t own but rely on every single day. This network is owned and maintained by your local electric companyโ€”the same one that sends you a monthly bill. Whether electricity enters your home through an overhead mast or a buried cable, the reliability of service rests with these local players.

Behind the Flags: How Power Reaches Homes
The electricity that hums through a house begins far away, at generating stations powered by natural gas, wind, solar, hydro, or nuclear energy. High-voltage lines move that power long distances until substations step the energy down to safer levels. From there, your local utility takes over, operating the distribution system that delivers electricity to neighborhoods and households.

For homeowners, the poles you see on the streetโ€”or the lines you donโ€™t see undergroundโ€”are not just background scenery. They are the lifelines of everyday living. Flicking on a light switch, charging a laptop, or running an air conditioner all depend on the quiet, constant work of utilities keeping those lines in good order.

Reliability and Perception
While utilities donโ€™t often feature at the top of a buyerโ€™s checklist the way school districts or commute times do, reliability still shapes homeowner perception. Most people only notice electricity when it fails, but repeated outages or slow restoration times can quickly create frustration. Just like trash pickup or snow plowing, electricity is a municipal-style service that residents take for grantedโ€”until it stops.

In this sense, dependability forms a kind of background preference. A household may not choose a neighborhood primarily for its utility provider, but they still form judgments, even if peripheral, about whether the service is reliable, responsive, and trustworthy. When those expectations arenโ€™t met, the dismay can be just as real as when other civic services break down.

The Householdโ€“Utility Relationship
Every month, the bill you pay reflects both the energy you used and the infrastructure behind it. Rates cover not only the electricity itself but also the upkeep of poles, wires, substations, and the crews ready to respond when trouble strikes. For families on tight budgets, these costs can feel heavy, which is why many utilities offer assistance programs or rebates to help households manage expenses.

More Than Wires
Ultimately, the connection between utilities and homes is about more than cables and meters. Itโ€™s about ensuring every household can reliably plug into modern life. From the flags in your lawn to the wires above your street, utilities provide the unseen backbone of comfort, safety, and opportunityโ€”making sure that when you flip the switch, the lights always come on.

Night Sky

It’s dark out! So I gave my iPhone a try at constellation photography. Not outrageous, but still satisfactory.

Big Dipper on the bottom edge of the frame

According to NPR, here’s the reason for the bright lights.

There are “blood,” “super” and “blue” moons, and then there’s the “black” moon.

The “black moon,” a rare phenomenon that occurs during a new moon phase of the lunar cycle, will occur this weekend. But don’t get your hopes up too much, scientists say, because it will be technically invisible.

Big Dipper with telescope feature

It’s unclear when it was coined, but “black moon” is an unofficial astronomical term. A new moon is considered by some to be a black moon one of two ways. It can happen when a new moon appears twice in one month (new moons usually happen once per month) or when there are four new moons in one season. When there are four new moons in one season, the third new moon is called a “black moon.”

Tariffs on Timber

Many home builders, contractors and retailers wagered that higher U.S. tariffs on imports would boost the cost of lumber, while lower interest rates would lift demand for the building material.

But those bets have failed to pay off โ€” and lumber prices have tallied a steep decline from a record high reached only three weeks ago. MarketWatch

Of course, there’s more than just tariffs in play in the market. Housing demand is down. Many new owners tackle renovations in the first months of home ownership. Fewer sales mean fewer renovations.

The market had rallied on classic โ€œbuy the rumor, sell the factโ€ action, he told MarketWatch. Prices for lumber had been higher just a few weeks ago based on the idea that tariffs were going to be attached to lumber and people were going to have to pay substantially higher costs โ€” yet the underlying demand isnโ€™t there, Kuta said.

People also overestimated where interest rates would be and their impact on lumber demand, which continues to slide lower, he added, with the โ€œswing and a missโ€ he referred to based on housing statistics and earnings for publicly traded companies that supply lumber.

For now, the addition of tariffs has not resulted in the anticipated price increase. So what’s the takeaway? Hire contractors and get that house addition done! Lumber prices, a main component in construction, are down because demand is down, which on turn means contractors are looking for jobs– it is time to build.

Best Bird App

I love the Merlin ID app by Cornell Lab.

Everyone can make out a mallard or spot a majestic eagle, but this chirp identifier lets you identify all the smaller or lesser know creatures perched in your backyard foliage.

Just tap on the green arrow, and a recording starts. Every time a song is picked up, the bird ID flashes below.

Then you can replay the recordings to become familiar with all the different calls.

Another free educational service brought to you through new technology and the drive for data.

The Cascade Effect: Unlocking Housing Affordability

Housing markets often seem mysterious, but at their core they operate as a cascading system shaped by wealth, supply, and lending rules. A recent model by Abramson and Landvoigt highlights how rising wealth inequality and slow housing supply interact to push prices upward. Their framework divides housing into quality tiers, from luxury to starter units, and shows how households with different levels of wealth compete across these tiers.

A central insight is that prices at the very top do not stay isolated. Luxury buyers are a small share of the market, and in some sense they simply bid against one another for exclusivity. One might argue that they are โ€œfoolsโ€ for paying such large premiums, while the rest of the market should remain relatively affordable. But in practice the tiers are linked. When supply of luxury units is restricted, affluent households who cannot find space at the top tier shift down into the next-best homes. That displacement triggers a chain reaction: middle-income households face stiffer competition, prices at their tier rise, and the pressure filters all the way down to lower-income renters. Economists call this the filtering or musical chairs effect, and it means that adding supply at the high end can improve affordability across the board.

This cascading dynamic is exactly what makes the market work. New supply at any tier frees up units that can be occupied by someone else, allowing households to sort themselves according to means and preferences. The danger arises when either end of the ladder is blocked. If new high-end supply is not built, the wealthy bid down-market and crowd out others. If older or more affordable stock is neglected, the bottom rungs collapse and low-income households are left without viable options.

At the same time, credit standards shape who can actually buy. A household that cannot afford the payments will not receive a loan, which protects individuals from becoming dangerously over-leveraged. But this underwriting filter does not stop prices from rising overall; it only determines who gets excluded. The clearing price is still set by those wealthier households who can obtain financing. Those priced out of ownership often remain in the rental sector, where demand pressures drive rents upward as well.

Taken together, the picture is less about a simple split between the rich and poor and more about a tightly connected cascade. Housing affordability depends not only on overall supply but also on how well each rung of the ladder is maintained and allowed to expand.

The associational role- Tolstoy Edition

Pierre explains to the Freemasons.

“The whole plan of our order should be founded on the training of men of character and virtue, bound together by unity of conviction and aim,โ€” the aim of suppressing vice and folly everywhere by every means, and protecting talent and virtue, raising deserving persons out of the dust and enrolling them in our brotherhoodโ€ฆ.โ€

The Reality of Minnesota’s Housing Market: Data Over Drama

Is affordability really an issue?

The narrative of a housing affordability crisis in Minnesota deserves scrutiny when examined against the actual data. The numbers tell a remarkably different story than the one often presented in policy discussions and media coverage.

The fundamental reality is this: 99.82% of Minnesotans are housed. With approximately 5.7 million residents and only 10,522 experiencing homelessness according to the most recent Minnesota Homeless Study, the state has achieved what many would consider a housing success story. This isn’t a marginal victoryโ€”it represents one of the most successful housing outcomes in the nation.

Supply Meeting Demand

Perhaps even more telling is the relationship between housing supply and population growth. Over the past five years, Minnesota’s housing stock increased by 3.87% while the adult population grew by 3.90%. This near-perfect alignment suggests that new construction is effectively matching new resident demandโ€”a fundamental indicator that the housing market is functioning properly.

This supply-demand balance contradicts claims of a systemic housing shortage. When housing supply keeps pace with population growth, market forces should theoretically maintain relative affordability absent other significant economic disruptions.

The Missing Financial Stress Evidence

Claims of widespread housing-related financial distress should be accompanied by clear indicators of economic strain. Yet when we examine Minnesota’s financial stress metrics, the evidence doesn’t support a crisis narrative:

Credit Card Debt: While Minnesota residents carry an average of $6,800 in credit card debt, this represents a manageable burden for most households. Only 6.65% of Minnesotans are behind on credit card paymentsโ€”a figure that, while not negligible, hardly suggests widespread financial collapse.

Payday Loans Eliminated: Rather than seeing increased desperation borrowing, Minnesota has essentially eliminated its payday loan industry through regulatory action. The state capped interest rates at 36% APR in 2024, driving out predatory lenders who previously charged an average of 202% annually. Payday America, which handled two-thirds of the state’s payday loan volume, simply stopped operating in Minnesota. If financial stress were truly endemic, we would expect to see increased demand for these services, not their market elimination.

Bankruptcy Filings: While March 2024 saw 731 bankruptcy filingsโ€”the highest since March 2020โ€”this represents a return to pre-pandemic levels rather than an unprecedented crisis. The temporary reduction during the pandemic was likely due to federal assistance programs and eviction moratoriums, making the current numbers a return to historical norms rather than evidence of new distress.

The 30% Rule: An Arbitrary Standard

The frequently cited “30% rule”โ€”that housing should consume no more than 30% of household incomeโ€”deserves particular scrutiny. This threshold traces back to the United States National Housing Act of 1937, developed for public housing eligibility criteria nearly 90 years ago.

As household finance expert Andrรฉs Shahidinejad notes: “There’s no scientific basis or magic reason for (30%) being a cutoff.” Fortune magazine has called the rule “arbitrary and not very helpful for policy makers.” The standard was created in an era of dramatically different household economics, employment patterns, and lifestyle choices.

Modern households make different tradeoffs than their 1937 counterparts. Some prioritize location and are willing to spend 40% or 50% of their income on housing in exchange for shorter commutes, better schools, or urban amenities. Others prefer larger homes in less expensive areas. These are choices, not evidence of crisis.

Reframing the Conversation

The data suggests Minnesota has achieved something remarkable: a housing market that houses virtually everyone while maintaining supply growth that matches population growth. Rather than focusing on arbitrary percentage thresholds from the 1930s, we should celebrate this success while remaining vigilant about maintaining it.

This doesn’t mean housing policy should be ignored. Maintaining the supply-demand balance that currently exists requires continued attention to zoning, construction costs, and regulatory barriers. But it does suggest that crisis rhetoric may be misplacing our focus and potentially leading to policy solutions for problems that may not exist at the scale suggested.

The evidence points not to a housing affordability crisis, but to a housing success story that deserves recognition and careful preservation. Minnesota’s achievement of housing 99.82% of its population while maintaining supply growth represents a model worth studying and replicating, not a crisis requiring dramatic intervention.

This is one type of missing housing

For 125 years, this building has been a form of low-income housing. It was a hotel for most of the time, but it is now being explicitly managed in aid of Veterans. But slowly, these types of housing are squeezed out of areas, as are trailer homes.

Rentals in single-family homes are also less common than in years gone by. Many core cities, which would benefit most from additional forms of rentals, require a variety of regulations which discourage owners from renting out part of their house. They are also held to standards that, in the past, favored an owner whereas now puts them as a disadvantage.

Yes, more homes need to be built. But many other forms of casual living situations have been squeezed out of existence by rules and regulations.

Is it better?

Sometimes I run a piece through Claude to see how it appears as an AI revision. It’s always much better. The one below is a rewrite of yesterday’s post. But I sometimes miss my unusual word choice and structure.

When Everyone Had the Power to Act, No One Did

Victoria Wilson
August 11, 2025

US Attorney General Joe Thompson’s recent assessment of Minnesota’s fraud crisis cuts to the heart of a systemic failure. As he told the Star Tribune: “This fraud crisis didn’t come out of nowhere. It’s the result of widespread failure across nearly every level of leadership in Minnesota: Politicians who turned a blind eye. Agencies that failed to act. Prosecutors and law enforcement who didn’t push hard enough. Reporters who ignored the story. Community leaders who stayed silent. And a public that wanted to believe it couldn’t happen here.”

Thompson is describing something profound: the collapse of state capacity through a thousand small abdications of responsibility.

The Architecture of Inaction

At every decision pointโ€”what scholars call the “locus of discretion”โ€”someone could have acted. The architecture of prevention was already in place; what failed was the will to use it.

Politicians possessed both influence and institutional knowledge. Any number could have quietly removed a questionable contractor from consideration or flagged suspicious applications. Career bureaucrats, masters of administrative friction, could have deployed their expertise differentlyโ€”slowing suspicious applications rather than legitimate ones, demanding additional documentation, or simply doing their jobs by visiting the nonprofit distribution sites that journalists later discovered were empty storefronts.

But the machinery of oversight had been recalibrated around different priorities.

The Pendulum’s Swing

Law enforcement and prosecutors had internalized a new philosophy. Years of concern about overcharging and mass incarceration had created an institutional bias toward restraint. The progressive approachโ€”emphasizing rehabilitation over punishment, empathy over enforcementโ€”had become orthodoxy. This wasn’t necessarily wrong in principle, but it created blind spots in practice.

When the prevailing wisdom holds that harsh enforcement causes more harm than good, the institutional reflexes that might catch sophisticated fraud schemes atrophy. The very skills and instincts that prosecutors once relied upon were now viewed with suspicion, even by the prosecutors themselves.

The Fourth Estate’s Absence

Perhaps most puzzling was the media’s delayed response. Major fraud schemes leave trailsโ€”suspicious contracts, questionable nonprofits, patterns of payments that don’t match claimed activities. These stories don’t require deep investigative resources so much as basic skepticism and persistence.

Yet for years, the story went untold. What accounts for this collective editorial blind spot? The same social and ideological currents that affected other institutions likely influenced newsrooms as well. When the dominant narrative emphasizes compassion over skepticism, reporters may unconsciously avoid stories that complicate that narrative.

Social Proof and Professional Risk

The community leaders Thompson mentionsโ€”board members, nonprofit executives, civic figuresโ€”faced their own constraints. In professional networks where certain viewpoints signal virtue and sophistication, dissent carries social costs. The cocktail party circuit that shapes elite opinion had settled on particular truths about criminal justice, social services, and community empowerment.

Raising uncomfortable questions about fraud prevention or accountability could mark someone as unsympathetic, backward, or worse. When career advancement and social standing depend on maintaining good relationships within ideologically coherent networks, the incentives point toward conformity rather than vigilance.

The Paradox of Distributed Responsibility

This case illustrates a peculiar modern phenomenon: system-wide failure despite individual competence. None of these actors were incompetent or malicious. Politicians understood governance, bureaucrats knew their procedures, prosecutors understood the law, reporters could investigate, and community leaders cared about their communities.

The failure occurred because everyone was optimizing for their immediate institutional and social environment rather than the system’s overall integrity. Each actor made rational decisions given their constraints, yet the collective result was irrationalโ€”a massive fraud that continued for years despite numerous opportunities for intervention.

The Cost of Consensus

Thompson’s critique suggests something uncomfortable: that the very social and ideological consensus meant to create a more just society may have created new vulnerabilities. When preventing harm becomes conflated with avoiding enforcement, when empathy becomes synonymous with credulity, the institutions meant to protect public resources become unable to protect them.

This doesn’t argue for a return to punitive excess, but rather for institutional cultures capable of holding multiple values in tensionโ€”compassion and accountability, reform and vigilance, trust and verification.

The Minnesota fraud case reveals what happens when that balance is lost, when the locus of discretion at every level points in the same direction: away from the uncomfortable work of saying no.

The Locus of Discretion

What is being described in the following passage?

โ€œThis fraud crisis didnโ€™t come out of nowhere. Itโ€™s the result of widespread failure across nearly every level of leadership in Minnesota: Politicians who turned a blind eye. Agencies that failed to act. Prosecutors and law enforcement who didnโ€™t push hard enough. Reporters who ignored the story. Community leaders who stayed silent,โ€ he told the Star Tribune recently. โ€œAnd a public that wanted to believe it couldnโ€™t happen here.โ€

That’s from US Attorney General Joe Thompson as reported in the Minnesota Reformer.

Isn’t he talking about state capacity? At every level, at each locus of discretion, action could have been taken to deter the fraudsters. Politicians are powerful and familiar with the levers of influence. Many could have bumped a potential n’er-do-well from the contract they pursued. Bureaucrats are very familiar with slow walking. Anyone in the chain of processing payments could ask for more information, lose pieces of the application, or demand more verifications. Heck, they could have even done they’re job and gone looking for the non-profits’ distribution sites, which, as the reporters later discovered, were vacant shells.

Prosecutors and law enforcement were busy working the other side of the justice spectrum. Anxious about overcharging instead of undercharging, they were busy releasing those who in past years would have received sentences. It’s been avant-garde to look the other way and anticipate a return to the law-abiding citizenry due to this empathetic understanding. (If you haven’t been au courant, this has not been successful.)

The reporters have finally come through five or six years into this monumental fleecing of the public purse. But where or where were they a few years ago? Four years ago? Six years ago? Who’s been persuading them to look away when such a tale was left untold? And the community leader, how about you? At the same parties, I’m sure. Drinking the same cocktails. Talking the same talk of empathy for the wayward results in reduced recidivism. Even though there is no track record. But the fashion of the day prevails. And social circles are heavily influenced by the fear of being left off the invite list for the next big event.

So there you have it. A big state capacity flop. At every level, the few who might have shoved the right disclosing email on the right desk, or talked a bit too much at a party to get the right word in the right ear, all muted. All cloaked down by the desire, no, the need, to be in with the crowd du jour.

Namibia and Saskatchewan?

Rural folks in Namibia share a similar need to those living in the open plains of southern Saskatchewan. There is a need for ambulances and none are forthcoming.

We have lost more than five innocent lives due to poor roads and a lack of clinical facilities,โ€ Gcugcuma village headman Kapeta Sikukutu told regional leaders during the engagementโ€ฆ.

โ€œPeople have died on their way to the hospital from remote areas because of transport problems,โ€ the headman said.

โ€œWe use the traditional mode of transport, which is oxen, and it contributes to the loss of lives. It takes hours for one to reach the clinic, which is 30km away from where we live,โ€ Sikukutu said. Namibian.

Meanwhile across the globe.

High call volumes and a shortage of paramedics are making for difficult situations when it comes to fast ambulance services in Saskatchewan.

Through a mutual aid agreement in Regina, fire crews are responding to ambulance calls when an ambulance canโ€™t immediately respond.

Global News CA

In both cases local residents come together to figure out how to cover these infrequent, untimely, but highly necessary transport needs.

It seems like thereโ€™d be a model for this.

Claims about public goodsโ€” data edition

Data collection by government is good. It is necessary. Itโ€™s as reliable as the bureaucracy that Shepards its output.

I love how this article in Bloomberg, The BLS Canโ€™t Be Replaced by the Private Sector, by Claudia Sahm slices and dices the public nature of data collection. But I wonder about her denial of its private creation. Letโ€™s consider her claims.

To be clear, this is the way it should be: Private companies are not in the business of creating public goods, which is what economic statistics from the government are. They are free to users, transparent in their methods, protective of the privacy of individuals and businesses, and dependable. Most private companies that create statistics charge users for access. (Some share their results publicly as a form of marketing.) Many private companies share only limited information about their methodology to deter competition.

Private companies are in the business of making a profit, and to do that they need to attract customers. Some customers are more profitable than others. As a result, a companyโ€™s data will tend to reflect the needs of its clients โ€” it wonโ€™t capture the economy as whole.

And yetโ€” many privately created data sets are used openly in a transparent fashion.

Hereโ€™s a list summarized by Grok of data provided by private enterprises for public consumption:

Private organizations often provide data that can function as a public goodโ€”non-excludable and non-rivalrous, benefiting society broadly. Here are some examples:

  1. Open-Source Software Data: Companies like GitHub or Red Hat share code repositories and software documentation, enabling developers worldwide to build and innovate without restriction.
  2. Environmental Data: Private firms, like those operating weather stations (e.g., IBMโ€™s Weather Company), provide real-time weather and climate data, which supports disaster preparedness and agricultural planning.
  3. Health Data Aggregates: Pharmaceutical companies or research institutions sometimes release anonymized clinical trial data or disease prevalence statistics, aiding public health research and policy.
  4. Geographic and Mapping Data: Organizations like OpenStreetMap or Google (via public APIs) offer mapping data that supports urban planning, navigation, and disaster response.
  5. Educational Resources: Platforms like Khan Academy or Coursera provide free or low-cost educational content, democratizing access to knowledge.
  6. Economic and Market Data: Financial institutions like Bloomberg or trading platforms sometimes release anonymized market trends or economic indicators, informing policy and research.
  7. Scientific Research Data: Private research labs, such as those in biotech, occasionally share datasets (e.g., genomic data) that advance collective scientific knowledge.

These datasets, while often generated for profit, can be shared in ways that make them accessible and beneficial to the public, resembling public goods.

Furthermore, there are frequent examples of bureaucratic efforts being led astray by private subgroups. The temptation for biased numbers can occur in both sectors.

Can we think of any recent Federal agencies being dismantled?

Once modest, Now grand

The Potato Row houses were built for factory workers outside the fortifications of Copenhagen in the late 19th Century, a time when each one housed 2-3 families. Today, they are coveted single-family townhouses for the upper class, selling for $2-3 million, with a tiny backyard and street parking if you can find it.

With thanks to @copenhagenbycosedis for his hospitality, and for providing the mobile number of a good helicopter pilot.

Land use and appreciation is always in transition. Sometimes slowly, sometimes fast.

Discovery then and now

Before AI, you had to get up close and to see how things happened.

Now you just ask: Rubber cultivation from rubber trees involves planting the trees, allowing them to grow for several years, and then collecting latex from the bark. This latex is then processed into natural rubber. The process can be resource-intensive, and there are ongoing efforts to improve the sustainability of rubber production, including using degraded land for plantations and exploring more efficient extraction methods. 

The Feast of the Goat

This carefully crafted book intertwines three tales occurring around the 1961 assassination of Rafael Trujillo, the brutal dictator of the Dominican Republic. The author’s language is beautiful and descriptive. He astutely matches the voices of each of his characters to the vernacular. There are enough historical facts to learn something without the narrative becoming pedantic. All these features make it brilliant.

But I believe the author is trying for more. Itโ€™s as if he wants to answer the question: How does a brutal dictator maintain such cruel control of a country for three decades? He is laying out how it works. First, he tells us of the agents. He gives us Urania. She returns to her homeland with the sole objective of presenting her father with a tally of her expenses for a decision he made so long ago. Then there are the insurgents, working together in a high-risk pursuit. And there is the dictator who is conflated with the state, as he has all those powers and economic means at his disposal.

The author is clear that there are more units of shared interest. Each of these agents has ties to the family. And each of these has varying fortunes depending on its ranking within the social structure.

To keep his model tight, the author does not pursue the family as agents who take action. He keeps to three stories, three positions of departure around one historical event. The first is the view of the lead character, Urania Cabal. Her story is one of private loss. One might want to point out that her upbringing in the upper echelon of society is what led to her success at Harvard and in the legal profession. Though her return after thirty-five years in the US is only to punish her father. To make it clear that his betrayal was beyond redemption.

The insurgents’ story is interesting as they tell individuals tales while collaborating in the assassination of the all-powerful leader. Their losses under the dictator’s reign are aired. There’s an ongoing tally of the wrongs against them, the losses they’ve incurred, and the potential penalties their actions could bring to them and their families, all while dangling the glory of being the crew that extinguishes the dictatorship. They work as a team. Their action influences the direction of the country.

Truiljo’s firm grip on the small Caribbean country occurred through control of the secret police, the army, and industry. His private gains were considerable. Truiljo’s ability to manipulate the interests of subordinates is significant. But the author gives us more insight. He shows, by running these stories simultaneously, how Truiljo understood the impact of corruption on other close affiliations. He led people to a point of no return, destroying collations one by one. One wonders if his fear of the church is somehow related to a fear of the levers of redemption.

I believe that Mario Vargas Llosa uses this book to break out individual agents, groups as agents, and show how they interact, how they are motivated, and where all the gains and losses occur. It shows up in his language.

On page 267, Trujillo’s girltrader and dealmaker tells Urania’s father, โ€œHe (Trujillo) will call you. He’ll return what’s been taken from you. Uranita’s future will be secure. Think of her, Agustรญn, and shake off your antiquated prejudices. Don’t be an egotist.” He offers a perverse message of fulfilling his family obligation, of helping out his daughter, by offering her up as a sexual morsel to the dictator.

On page 322 the author emphasizes the active reformulation of groups as agents, โ€œAs if in a dream, in the hours that followed he saw this assemblage of Trujillo’s family, relatives, and top leaders form cliques, dissolve them, and form them again as events began to connect like pieces filling in the gaps of a puzzle until a solid figure took shape.โ€ Once the new assemblage forms, it becomes one. A solid shape.

On page 355, the brilliant Vargas Llosa reminds his readers to depend on human nature: โ€œDoรฑa Marรญa’s response had been predictable: her greed was stronger than any other passion.โ€ The first lady could be depended on to prioritize personal interests over group ideals.

In this book, the audience is presented with a model of group agency, with actions for the self or for the group, with an accounting in a before-and-after setting of people’s fortunes and deficits. Vargas Llosa answers the question of how it works.

Fully modeled with examples.

Mario Vargas Llosa talks about Adam Smith

I enjoy books where one famous intellectual gives their interpretation of anotherโ€™s insights. Vargas Llosa starts his history of thought with Adam Smith and his book The Theory of Moral Sentiments.

Human beings get to know each other through imagination, and a natural sense of sympathy toward one’s neighbor is what draws one individual to another, something that would never occur if human actions were exclusively governed by reason. This feeling of sympathy, and imagination, brings strangers together and establishes between them a link that breaks down mistrust and creates reciprocal bonds. The vision of man and society that permeates this book is positive and optimistic, for Adam Smith believes that, despite all the horrors that are committed, goodness-โ€”that is, moral sentimentsโ€” prevail over evil.

MN fact of the day

The stateโ€™s acting U.S. Attorney Joseph H. Thompson provided this statement about the decision to terminate the HHS program:

โ€œWe welcome todayโ€™s news. Fraud has been eating away at Minnesotaโ€™s public programs for years, costing taxpayers billions. Ending the Housing Stabilization Services program cuts off a major source of abuse, but this is just the beginning. The fight against fraud continues, and a broader reckoning is long overdue.โ€

KSTP

So thereโ€™s still more to come. The 1Billion figure is looking real.