Month: June 2024

Environmental reviews- Just a way to say NO?

In the latest round of environmental review versus the world (or do it my way legislation), the boxers are the almighty climate combatants versus those who request a road expansion. I should qualify. When I say ‘request,’ I mean demonstrated demand through usage. If the roadways are full, then it’s safe to say that the participants find travel along that freeway by car best suits their needs. Once vehicles come to a standstill on a commute, they are polluting an extra amount by idling. Managing the road system to facilitate flow keeps emissions lower.

A new law passed last year requires an environmental review before authorizing a roadway enlargement. Calculating a social cost at the time of the transaction, like a road installation, is an interesting thing to do. It should be done in conjunction with calculating of all the other benefits prompt and efficient transporation offers, such as getting the elderly to their doctors’ appointments or kids to their extra-circular activities, as well as getting commuters to their jobs.

Residents are dong that all the time. Cars cost money to own and maintain. Consumers will use them when they are their best option. Denying a population access to a road enlargement pushes them to substitute less desireable options. These are less attractive not because of their love affairs with the car, but most probably because they eat into their time and ability to achieve their other daily tasks.

If the goal is to reduce trip miles, then study populations who achieve success at all their goals while using the fewest miles. How is their matrix of choices allowing this to happen? What are their priorities and how did they achieve them. I can promiss one answer. It isn’t because a bureaucrat squeezed their road improvement project.

Convo with Stiglitz

I have been introduced to so many interesting (and famous!) people through Tyler Cowen’s podcast, Conversations with Tyler. This last one with Joseph Stiglitz is no exception. Tyler knows exactly the tempo to keep the clip of information at a perfect speed. The written follow-up provides links to referenced papers. It’s truly a wonderful service.

The breath of Stiglitz career leaves many areas open for further review. But this comment stumped me a little.

STIGLITZ: Today, the critical issue in trade policy is US CHIPS Act and the IRA. The CHIPS Act was, we had lost the ability to make chips. That meant that if anything happened to Taiwan or Korea, we were in a very vulnerable position. Markets don’t take into account that kind of defense concern, or even the resilience. That goes back to some of my earlier work that markets aren’t very good at assessing risk and pricing risk into the decision-making process.

How does he mean that the market does not take into account national defense? Undoubtedly the chips made in Taiwan are produced at a lower cost than in the US, hence the benefit from trade. But where is the documentation to show the accounting of that price drop? Surely people think that a portion of the discount is from the difference in state governance?

When US retailers buy from a textile plant in Bangladesh, they are aware of the different standards imposed (or not imposed) on the building facilities. Surely they factor that into the the price difference? The US retailers could choose to pay a bit more under the conditions that the building and machinery were held to a high standard, should they choose.

The dynanism of the market will adjust to new circumstances and knowledge as it surfaces under changing conditions.

Pruning advice

My tea rose bushes bloomed spectacularly this spring. A neighbor texted to say her husband needs advice as his plant looked meager in comparison. There are general weather conditions which contribute to the performance of garden plants. Blooms, however, are often the product of a little grooming. Rose bushs like to be trimmed back once the petals are falling into the landscape rock below.

Lilac bushes also enjoy a good haircut once their blooms have faded. Be agressive and cut the stems of the plant down by a foot. A few short weeks later you will notice multiple new off-shoots at every cut.

In eleven months each of these sprigs will be bending from the lilac blooms. A heavy scent will remind you of an elderly aunt with pressed powder make-up.

Shogun- Series Review

This is a great series. The clashing of European and Japanese customs are just one interesting twist in the struggle for power following the death of a great ruler. Another is the depth and power of the female characters. I can’t think of an english speaking war genre with a similar balance of captivating roles.

I remember the splash James Cavell’s novel Shogun made when it was published in 1975. We were also living abroad, and the depiction of cultural interaction was familiar. My brother remembers it as the first novel he could read straight through. The strength of the story lines holds the imagination of all ages, including that of a fourteen-year-old.

Even though a copy of his 1980 book Noble House stakes a spot on my bookshelf, I haven’t thought of James Cavell in years. His background is (perhaps predictably) adventurous.

Imprisoned in Changi[edit]

Shot in the face,[5] he was captured in Java in 1942 and sent to a Japanese prisoner of war camp on Java. Later, he was transferred to Changi Prison in Singapore.[6]

In 1981, Clavell recounted:

Changi became my university instead of my prison. Among the inmates there were experts in all walks of life—the high and the low roads. I studied and absorbed everything I could from physics to counterfeiting, but most of all I learned the art of surviving, the most important course of all.[5]

Prisoners were fed a quarter of a pound (110 g) of rice per day, one egg per week and occasional vegetables. Clavell believed that if atomic bombs had not been dropped on Hiroshima and Nagasaki he would not have survived the war.[5]

WIKI

I also did not realize he wrote The Great Escape, another favorite film from my childhood.

Watch on HULU with ads.

It’s not the structure-

Allison Shertzer takes issue with the headline’s cryptic economic message. If there is enough housing, then the price for occupancy should settle to the price each resident can afford. If there are fifty homes in a settlement and fifty households, then those who can pay the most pick first, and down the line, the pricing match shuffles until the last match of the least desirable to the household to those with the least resources. This simplified balance market omits nuances like how two homes are tied up when people transition from one property to another. Or that when major renovations are underway, it is difficult to live on the property, so it is vacant.

The basic premise, however, is that when there are sufficient structures to shelter every household, the price to live in those structures is pushed through the system to reflect consumers’ ability to pay. After all, even at the lowest end of the scale, it would be better for the property owner to receive some income from a less advantaged person than to let the property sit vacant.

Or is it?

It is refreshing to see a study confirming that dwellings are, in the big picture, available in
sufficient numbers. “The numbers showed that from 2010 to 2020, household
formation did exceed the number of homes available. However, there was a large
surplus of housing produced in the previous decade. In fact, from 2000 to 2020,
housing production exceeded the growth of households by 3.3 million units. The
surplus from 2000 to 2010 more than offset the shortages from 2010 to
2020.”

This article tries more than most to zero in on what is concerning. It’s not affordability in general. When ten parties are bidding on a house, that tells us there are plenty of households who find the price within their range of acceptability. When houses are selling, and apartments are rented, then folks have the funds to make those arrangements work.

What is of concern, and has always been of concern, is sheltering those at the very lowest of means. This brings us back to the question: If there are open units to occupy, is there a reason why they would be left vacant instead of settling for some cash flow? Yes, there is a reason. In some cases, the net monthly cash flow is negative. The issue is being talked about as if it concerns the building, but it’s really about the necessity of support services.

It would be even more refreshing if the conversation went in that direction instead of
hammering away about building affordable housing, which is another cryptic
economic fallacy.

Counting new homes

Some numbers are hard to find. The number of permits pulled to build homes, for instance, are shrouded in mystery. For all of you counting building starts, however, I have the link for you! The statistics can be found on the US Department of Housing and Urban Development. You can break it down to the county level.

According to HUD Minnesota’s total for building permits pulled in 2023 was 25,665.

A deal on the table

In the 1988 movie Working Girl, Sigourney Weaver has a dramatic entrance to a boardroom setting complete with a bevy of men in grey three-piece suits and heavy mahogany paneling.  Her hair is 80s height, her attire speaks a woman of means, and her use of crutches is both intimidating and explanatory as to why she wasn’t invited to the meeting. Weaver’s urgency to attend is due to, as she announces, “Gentlemen, we have a deal on the table.”

The coming together of parties to a transaction is often featured in cinema in this high-drama boardroom fashion. Tension is integral to two parties, each feeling the other is getting the best of them, and they stand off with their legal eagles at hand. Both benefit from the trade, or they would not be present. The pressure to settle is high.

Weaver is there to claim her stake in the transaction, as there are many participants in the successful execution of a trade. The close of deal-making is when each party comes away with either what they’ve given or what they’ve gotten. There is a settling of accounts.

Debussy on Wagner

Turns out he didn’t like him so.

This verdict, made up of love and hatred, was given once more by Debussy in more graphic, less definite terms which unite, whilst contrasting them, the names of Bach and Wagner: In conclusion, Wagner’s work suggests a striking picture: Bach as the Holy Grail, Wagner as Klingsor wishing to crush the Grail and usurp its place…. Bach shines supreme over music, and in his goodness he has reserved for our hearing words as yet unknown, of the great lesson he has bequeathed us of disinterested love of music. Wagner disappears into the background… He is fading away … a black, disturbing shadow.

In his final analysis Debussy’s chief grievance against the great artist who degraded symphony to the service of his tragedies was a lack of this passion-disinterested love of music. For Debussy was above all a musician, whilst Wagner was above all a dramatist.

Pottery

When my kids were young I tool them to a fund raiser called Empty Bowls. Participants crafted bowls from supplies laid out by volunteers. Then came back to glaze them. On the final day they returned to pick up the creations in exchange for a donation towards curbing hunger in the community. Little did I know at the time that this would launch my daughter’s pottery vocation.

She crafted this pot, sturdy enough to hold my orchid’s heavy blooms.

Pottery workshops are offered in various places all over the world. There’s Seagrove Potters in North Carolina, there’s Royal Delft pottery in the Netherlands, and there’s Stoke-on-Trent in Great Britain which claims to be the ceramics capital of the world.

Mostly I am happy to see her take a liking to a creative process.

A form seen in highlights

Albert Hirshman describes an economic motion in his book Exit, Voice and Loyalty (1970). Parties can withdraw if they do not care for a product or arrangement. They may attempt to impact the process by exercising their voice. Over time, loyalties develop, which influence the superstructure of relationships.

It seems Hirshman would agree with his contemporary, Milton Friedman, about the benefits of school vouchers. Should a family be displeased with a pedantic school district, they could collect a coupon for their tax dollar input and cash it in at another more vibrant district. Since schools are tied to geographies, consumers always have the choice to relocate their homes to attend elsewhere. Vouchers make the process more fungible.

Hirschman outlined the logic of the exit option and how noted how increased competition could improve government performance. But competition didn’t solve all problems, and the exit option had several important drawbacks. The freedom to exit was often used by the most ambitious, educated, or well-to-do users of a particular service, and once they exited, those remaining were even poorer, less educated, and less demanding. Moreover, Hirschman pointed out, the possibility of exit weakened the effectiveness of voice, that is, the ability to directly change the management’s behavior through feedback, discussion, and criticism. 

As Frank Fukuyama explains in his American Interest piece, Hirshman didn’t believe vouchers were the answer to improving a school system. Unlike other commodities, the departure of the stronger students from the classroom has a negative impact on the remaining students. This observation gives a new form to education. Casting the product in this light projects a little amber glow onto all members of the school community. The mission is to educate everyone. If not an educator or a student, the role may be to voice praise or criticism.

A school does not produce widgets on an assembly line, but a group process produces educated students. Changing the composition of the pool of players can have both positive and negative effects on the outcomes. And there are roles for an audience as well.

Commerce with World Vision

An associate asked if I’d consider a donation to World Vision, a philathropy dedicated to assisting children in poverty. I’m familiar with their work as they’ve been present in the developping world since I was a kid. Still- I did my due diligence and checked out their website: World Vision.

At the bottom of the web page the site offers linkes to organization which can vouch for their efficacy as a non-profit organization.

But I wanted to know the individual theoeries behind each on the tiles listed under the tab ‘Ways to Help.’ So I asked ChatGPT to break down an analysis.

Monetary Contributions:

  1. Research planned giving options:
    • Input: Donors contribute financial resources through wills, stocks, IRAs, or gift annuities.
    • Return: Theoretical support from Social Exchange Theory suggests that donors gain satisfaction, tax benefits, and a sense of legacy by supporting a cause, fostering a reciprocal relationship with the organization and society.
  2. Philanthropy:
    • Input: Christian philanthropists invest significant financial resources.
    • Return: According to Altruism Theory, the return is intrinsic satisfaction and fulfillment from helping others, along with potential social recognition and community status.
  3. Create your own fundraising page:
    • Input: Individuals invest time and social capital to raise funds.
    • Return: Prosocial Behavior Theory supports the idea that individuals receive social approval, increased self-esteem, and a sense of accomplishment from mobilizing resources for a good cause.
  4. Shop for a cause:
    • Input: Consumers spend money on products where proceeds support World Vision.
    • Return: Cause-Related Marketing Theory suggests consumers gain utility from purchasing needed items while simultaneously supporting a cause, enhancing their perceived personal value and satisfaction.
  5. Donate cryptocurrency:
    • Input: Donors provide cryptocurrency assets.
    • Return: The Theory of Planned Behavior implies that donors are motivated by perceived ease of donation, tax advantages, and the belief that their actions will significantly impact.
  6. Find donation-matching employers:
    • Input: Employees donate and leverage employer matching programs.
    • Return: Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR) Theory suggests that employees feel greater satisfaction and loyalty towards their employer, while employers gain enhanced reputation and employee engagement.

Volunteering Time and Effort:

  1. Volunteer at a warehouse:
    • Input: Volunteers invest time and physical effort.
    • Return: Volunteer Function Inventory (VFI) indicates that volunteers gain personal growth, social connections, and fulfillment from contributing to a meaningful cause.
  2. Host an event:
    • Input: Organizers invest time and resources to plan and execute events.
    • Return: Event Management Theory suggests organizers receive community recognition, personal satisfaction, and social networking opportunities.
  3. Run or walk for clean water:
    • Input: Participants invest time and physical effort in running or walking events.
    • Return: Health Belief Model supports that participants benefit from improved health, social interaction, and the satisfaction of contributing to a cause.
  4. Build kits with your group:
    • Input: Groups invest time and effort to assemble kits.
    • Return: Group Dynamics Theory posits that groups enhance cohesion, collective efficacy, and mutual support while achieving a shared goal.
  5. Knit blankets and sweaters:
    • Input: Individuals invest time and skill in knitting.
    • Return: Flow Theory suggests that engaging in this activity provides a state of flow, where individuals experience deep satisfaction and absorption in a meaningful task.
  6. Pray for those in need:
    • Input: Individuals invest time and spiritual energy in prayer.
    • Return: Spiritual Well-Being Theory indicates that individuals gain a sense of peace, purpose, and connection to a higher cause through prayer.

Corporate and Group Engagement:

  1. Explore corporate partnerships:
    • Input: Companies invest resources to engage employees in charitable activities.
    • Return: Stakeholder Theory supports that companies enhance their reputation, employee morale, and customer loyalty by demonstrating social responsibility.
  2. Ignite your Christian school:
    • Input: Schools invest in educational programs on poverty and injustice.
    • Return: Transformative Learning Theory suggests that students experience personal growth, increased awareness, and a commitment to social justice.
  3. Activate your church congregation:
    • Input: Congregations invest time and resources in community engagement.
    • Return: Community Engagement Theory posits that congregations strengthen community bonds, deepen spiritual growth, and enhance collective efficacy.
  4. Do the 30-Hour Famine:
    • Input: Students and participants invest time and experience temporary hunger.
    • Return: Empathy-Altruism Hypothesis supports that participants develop greater empathy, a deeper understanding of global hunger, and a stronger commitment to social action.
  5. Ask for a World Vision speaker:
    • Input: Organizations invest time and resources to host speakers.
    • Return: Narrative Theory suggests that audiences gain inspiration, motivation, and a deeper emotional connection to the cause through storytelling.

Advocacy and Voice:

  1. Tell congress what matters:
    • Input: Individuals invest time and effort to communicate with legislators.
    • Return: Civic Engagement Theory indicates that individuals feel empowered, experience increased political efficacy, and contribute to shaping public policy.
  2. Connect kids with sponsors:
    • Input: Ambassadors invest time and social capital to promote child sponsorship.
    • Return: Social Capital Theory suggests that ambassadors build networks, enhance their social influence, and experience fulfillment from facilitating connections that improve children’s lives.

Full circle from Fahrenheit 451

“People don’t talk about anything.”

“Oh, they must!”

“No, not anything. They name a lot of cars or clothes or swimming pools mostly and say how swell!

But they all say the same things and nobody says anything different from anyone else. And most of the time in the caves they have the joke boxes on and the same jokes most of the time, or the musical wall lit and all the colored patterns running up and down, but it’s only color and all abstract. And at the museums, have you ever been? All abstract. That’s all there is now. My uncle says it was different once. A long time back sometimes pictures said things or even showed people.”

Minimize the Rules

Too many rules:

  • Make it hard for well-intentioned people to find their way.
  • Are difficult to enforce.
  • And thus encourage people to do their own thing anyway.

Boettke sets up the situation

There was a presumption toward voluntarism in human affairs, but in recognition that our nature is divided between a cooperative nature and an opportunistic nature we must figure out a way to curb our opportunistic side if we hope to realize the fruits of our cooperative side. While our cooperative nature is reflected in our propensity to truck, barter and exchange (which no other species actually exhibits), our opportunistic side is revealed in the warring nature witnessed throughout human history. Political economy solved the puzzle by suggesting that we could sacrifice in a small way the presumption of voluntarism in order to create a government which will curb our opportunistic side and enable our cooperative side to flourish. Thus was born the argument for limited, but effective, government that was the core of classical liberal thought from John Locke, David Hume and Adam Smith to more contemporary writers such as Frank Knight, Ludwig von Mises, F.A. Hayek, Milton Friedman and James Buchanan.

How to find an infill lot

It’s not easy.

Clients who want to live in an old neighborhood have few choices. The open land is gone. Most homes that are in the neighborhood are in good enough shape to add value to the lot upon which they are perched. Ideally, the clients want to find a tear down, or a home is such rough shape that most everyone cannot see a renovation opportunity. But it doesn’t stop there. As this thread explains, there are more issues in play.

Soil testing and estimates for debris removal and site prep are easy numbers to come by. The tricky bits of information is whether the plan the clients have in mind will fit on the parcel and still comply with the building codes and municipal ordinances.

Lack of information results in uncertainty. Too much uncertainty and people do not want to move forward. That’s not progress!

MN Homestead History

It’s impressive really. Stat. 507.02

Before Minnesota achieved statehood, the Territory of Minnesota enacted a homestead exemption statute that shielded homestead property from “sale on execution, or other process of a court.” Rev. Terr. Stat., ch. 71, § 93 (1851). When Minnesota entered the Union, the homestead exemption was incorporated into the Minnesota Constitution and it remains there today. Minn. Const. of 1857, art. I, § 12. In relevant part, Article I, Section 12, provides that a “reasonable amount of property shall be exempt from seizure or sale for the payment of any debt or liability.” The purpose of the homestead exemption is to “preserve the homestead to the family even at the sacrifice of just demands.” Holden v. Farwell, Ozmun, Kirk & Co., 223 Minn. 550, 558-59, 27 N.W.2d 641, 646 (1947). Indeed, in order to ensure “a stable and independent citizenry and thereby promote the public welfare, it has always been the policy of the law to protect with jealous zeal the homestead right of the citizen.” Id. at 558, 27 N.W.2d at 646.

The Legislature has enacted various statutes implementing the constitutional directive. Minnesota Statutes § 510.01 (2012) defines the homestead as the “house owned and occupied by a debtor as the debtor’s dwelling place, together with the land upon which it is situated to the amount of area and value hereinafter limited and defined.” Minnesota Statutes § 510.02 (2012) further provides that the homestead exemption shall be limited to 160 acres or less, and shall not exceed $300,000, or $750,000 if the homestead is primarily used for agricultural purposes, subject to periodic adjustment of the dollar amounts in the manner set forth in Minn. Stat. § 550.37, subd. 4a (2012). The exemption extends to the debts of both spouses even if only one spouse holds legal title to the homestead property. See Minn. Stat. § 510.04 (2012).

Consistent with the purpose of preserving the homestead to the family, Minnesota law has, at least since 1865, provided that no conveyance of the homestead by a husband is valid unless “the wife joins in the deed of conveyance.” Minn. Gen. Stat., ch. 68, § 5 (1865). That requirement, which is currently codified at Minn. Stat. § 507.02, is now gender-neutral and provides:

If the owner is married, no conveyance of the homestead, except a mortgage for purchase money under section 507.03, a conveyance between spouses pursuant to section 500.19, subdivision 4, or a severance of a joint tenancy pursuant to section 500.19, subdivision 5, shall be valid without the signatures of both spouses. A spouse’s signature may be made by the spouse’s duly appointed attorney-in-fact.

Minn Lawyer

Ownership means maintenance

I’m an advocate for homeownership. No question. But to develop products which prematurely get people of little means into a home is irresponsible. For example:

For a time the monthly expenses may be all that is owed. After a while larger mechancial expenses appear. Some can be deferred by stop gapping replacements here and there. Eventually the folks will end up with a home that has not appreciated because of all the impending repairs.

Review Qualifiers

Purely by chance, I parked across the street from what turned out to film venue which specializes in vintage productions. There was a handy leaflet right under the red letters ‘cinema.’ So I grabed one, as old movies often appeal to me.

I prefer to watch a recommended film just to take some of the risk out of the time investment. A Brief Encounter was coming up as a summer viewing option. The screenplay was written by Noel Coward which sounded promising. The blurb suggested that it was one of the best British films ever made.

I didn’t quite see it that way and drifted off about half way through the production.

More qualifiers would be nice when people suggest something is the best of its kind. It seems that there are many layers of what a film could be. So what is this one the best at? Maybe more context is needed. That’s certainly the case when evaluating so many things.

What I like about this paper

A recent paper, Houston, you have a problem: How large cities accommodate more housing, by Anthony W. Orlando and Christian L Redfearn, offers a new reading of real estate data.

Consider the stylized fact that unmet demand is most-inexpensively delivered on low-cost land at the periphery of the commuting shed, known as a “greenfield” site. This type of development uses low-cost, low-density construction methods. However, in productive and desirable urban areas, low-cost land—especially close to jobs and retail—is quickly consumed, pushing single-family home builders farther away from the amenities that make these urban areas attractive. Eventually, this progression reaches a limit in which commuting back to these amenities is too costly. At this point, the greenfield land is effectively “built out,” and developers are forced to look inward to more expensive land closer to the core where spatial amenities are valued by renters and buyers. When this “infill” development becomes a larger share of new housing supply, the marginal cost of supplying a new housing unit will increase, and the elasticity of supply will fall. Thus, even in the absence of different regulatory regimes, an MSA with more population and more density will appear to have a steeper supply curve because large and growing urban markets naturally progress in this direction.

Real estate has a history of being talked about in static numbers. Orlando and Redfearn discover a dynamic in their research. A city grows along the fringe where the developers can build over large parcels of undeveloped land. This is the most consumer-friendly by meeting the desired structure for the lowest cost. But at some point, the authors observe that the commute to a central business district causes infill projects to gain in status. At that point, a city gains new units within the old infrastructure instead of in the greenfield.

Much of what we have learned in the two decades since DiPasquale (1999) first prompted the field to investigate housing supply is aggregate and static in nature. The goal of this empirical work is to document the location of housing stocks within several MSAs over a long time of growth. The results presented in the article are largely descriptive. It is abundantly clear that aggregate analyses miss the compelling dynamics we documented.

Why stop at the trade-off between low cost fringe housing versus commute time? There are many other interesting dynamics to expore.

In Memory

Here’s a wonderful short movie about Tank Man was produced by Robert Anthony Peters.

No Problem Here

I see this in reverse. The beauty of real estate is that it keeps people honest.

It takes a Team

The Timberwolves lost to the Dallas Mavericks on Thursday at the Target Center, but they brought home a win to Minnesota fans. It’s been a couple of decades since the franchise has had this level of success. They brought the audience along to more than one close game just to sneak out the win to stay alive. Fans loved it.

But it’s the team members who are saying team endearments at this stage of their season. Mike Conley, a 17 year veteran of the sport said in an interview that his teammates have renewed his love for the game. They have made him feel young again.

The others too have talked about dedication to a whole new year of getting back to the top. This mutual support is refreshing to see. I hope they become the role models they seem to be as we are all better when we work together.