No Housing Crisis

Kevin Drum proposed that in a 2022 article– and I agree entirely.

The real issue here is that America doesn’t have a housing crisis.

I’m not sure why, but I find the new urbanists one of the most annoying groups in the progressive pantheon. It’s not because they’re wrong, precisely, or because they’re meanspirited, or anything like that. There’s just a disconnect from reality that seems to motivate so much of what they say and do.

Take America’s housing crisis. Here it is:

We have as much housing per household as we had in 2001. And just in case you think I’m cheating with this “household” business, here it is per person:

We have more housing per capita than we did in 2001.

Just wait and see as the market softens. Prices in some markets have already ebbed away from a peak, and the number of homes on the market is creeping up. Builders who notoriously hold on to their list prices are marking spec homes down a bit. The tight market was not due to a shortage as much as the normal pressure of people moving to changes in their lives.

But the best part of Drum’s article is how he feels about the people who try to set a national agenda on housing: the urbanists.

But this still doesn’t really explain why I find the urbanists annoying. Here’s my real beef: they are obsessed with big cities. They spend nearly all their time trying to convince us that big, crowded cities should become even bigger and more crowded. Or that suburbs should become big and crowded, just like cities. This is a fantastic waste of time. Residents of big cities don’t want to become more crowded and resident of suburbs don’t want to become more like cities. They will fight you forever on this. Absolutely forever. The game isn’t worth the candle, especially when there are so many other far more useful things we could be devoting our energy to.

So why waste time on this? The urbanists will haul out studies about economic gains, environmental impacts, mass transit, etc., but they massively oversell those benefits and completely ignore the downsides of crowding. Instead, they should be spending approximately 100% of their time promoting policies that would get people out of big cities and into smaller cities that have room to grow.

It is funny how everyone wants to talk about ‘world-class cities.’ Ho-hum cities are where it is at for understanding the baselines of success.